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  1. #1

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    Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    http://www.gamespot.com/news/6166286...ewstop;title;6

    Yesterday, industry-research firm NPD Funworld reported that the Wii is the US' best-selling console at present. Shortly thereafter, the Wednesday edition of the Financial Times contained a bold prediction about the console's future--which he believes will be brighter than anyone previously thought.
    A report in the The Financial Times quotes one of Tokyo's more prominent game analysts, Merrill Lynch's Yoshiyuki Kino****a, as being beyond bullish on the Wii. He told the UK-based business daily that he expects the console, which has appealed to nongamers via its motion-sensing capabilities, to be in 30 percent of US homes by 2011. In Japan, Kino****a expects a full third of households to have the machine in four years.
    But while such predictions are the boon--or bane--of console-war partisans, they are just that--predictions. And, among analysts, those are in no short supply. Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter foresees the currently third-place PlayStation 3 as winning in the long haul due to its processing brawn and high-storage Blu-ray drive. Others predict any Sony surge will be undermined by an Xbox 360 price cut, perhaps as early as this year.
    I love how the board settings cut out part of the guys last name. LOL!!!


  2. #2

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    ^

    I love my wii. Everyone should have one

  3. #3

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    I don't buy it. By 2011, High Def is going to be common place...

    No system sells like that for 5 years. Even the PS2...

  4. #4

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by sir clinksalot View Post
    http://www.gamespot.com/news/6166286...ewstop;title;6



    I love how the board settings cut out part of the guys last name. LOL!!!
    That is 5 years from now or so which is the average lifespan of a console.

  5. #5

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Yeah, even as a Wii fan I don't buy it. We will be on to the next generation by then.


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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by sir clinksalot View Post
    Yeah, even as a Wii fan I don't buy it. We will be on to the next generation by then.
    The Wii Wii?

  7. #7

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    No, the WII (Roman Numeral 2)
    Out of the NIGHT....
    When the full moon is BRIGHT!!
    Comes a horseman known as ZORRO!!!
    ---------------------------------------

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Zorro825 View Post
    No, the WII (Roman Numeral 2)
    Yeah I was thinking that after I posted but I was too lazy too edit.

  9. #9

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    I love my Wii! I think they are talking about 5 years because Yr1 is difficult to get a hold of them - year2 and 3 will be boom years. Probable yr4 for price reduction and last sales in Yr5 = 30% market share. Makes sense really. I mean my Mom just bought an Xbox for Christmas 2006 because it and the games were cheap. Yes - she was late, but people do it.
    Let's put the Walt back in Disney!





  10. #10

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by davewasbaloo View Post
    I love my Wii! I think they are talking about 5 years because Yr1 is difficult to get a hold of them - year2 and 3 will be boom years. Probable yr4 for price reduction and last sales in Yr5 = 30% market share. Makes sense really. I mean my Mom just bought an Xbox for Christmas 2006 because it and the games were cheap. Yes - she was late, but people do it.
    I highly doubt it. Right now we're seeing Wii sales based on novelty alone. Look on any gaming message board, and the most common response to why people want a Wii, and "It's Different" is all over the place.

    However, as we're already seeing, there's only so long that Wii games will be "different". First Person Shooters are pretty much all going to be the same. Point, Shoot, Reload. The only difference will be that one controls better than the other. Sports games? Simulate the motion. There's only so much "innovation" you can have in standard genres. Especially when your main focus is the controller, and not software.

    If there's a re-issue (which there are rumors of) and a price drop, I think there will be a sales spike. But I still doubt that that many people will own a Wii. Currently with ALL the systems combined the videogame market occupies about 42% of US homes.

  11. #11

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Soulquarian View Post
    I highly doubt it. Right now we're seeing Wii sales based on novelty alone. Look on any gaming message board, and the most common response to why people want a Wii, and "It's Different" is all over the place.

    However, as we're already seeing, there's only so long that Wii games will be "different". First Person Shooters are pretty much all going to be the same. Point, Shoot, Reload. The only difference will be that one controls better than the other. Sports games? Simulate the motion. There's only so much "innovation" you can have in standard genres. Especially when your main focus is the controller, and not software.

    If there's a re-issue (which there are rumors of) and a price drop, I think there will be a sales spike. But I still doubt that that many people will own a Wii. Currently with ALL the systems combined the videogame market occupies about 42% of US homes.
    People said the same thing when the DS came out.

    Saying that all first person shooters on the Wii will be the same is like saying that all first person shooters with traditional controllers are the same. No one argues the latter, so why would the former be true.

    Without getting into a long argument about it, almost all games control the same on traditional controllers. That doesn't mean they're all the same.

    Also, the reason for the Wii's existence is for the remaining 58% of the US who doesn't have a video game system. This exact situation is happening in Japan with the DS.

    That having been said, I still don't think this analyst will be proven right in 5 years. I still maintain that High-Def won't end up being too important in this generation (everyone feels like they just upgraded, so why should they do so again, especially when most people are satisfied with the current def), but I do believe a more traditional console ends up winning in the end. However, I'm really hoping Microsoft wins this race (but just barely), since Krazy Ken needs to get the sense punched into him, and Nintendo as the market leader is not a pretty sight. I can see Microsoft being a poor leader too, but hopefully if they only squeak out a win, they'll be scared enough to keep pushing forward.

    Otherwise, I won't be really affected by the outcome since Nintendo shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. Even when the system comes in third, they still make the most money, so they'll be in the video game business for a long time to come.

  12. #12

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Ness View Post
    People said the same thing when the DS came out.

    Saying that all first person shooters on the Wii will be the same is like saying that all first person shooters with traditional controllers are the same. No one argues the latter, so why would the former be true.

    Without getting into a long argument about it, almost all games control the same on traditional controllers. That doesn't mean they're all the same.
    But in other console's, the main feature and purpose wasn't the controller. It was a total package. The Wii lacks on everything BUT the controlling scheme. Soon, that's not going to cut it

  13. #13

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    After a weekend playing on all three systems (my friend has them all) I must say that the Wii is a fun machine to play. However, it seems that once the multiplayer is taken out of the picture the Wii all of a sudden begins to be not so much fun anymore.

    As for the PS3 its such a nice peice of hardware, you have to admit. But nothing is compelling about it to pay $600.00 for one. I think that is why the Wii is selling better. Number one its way cheaper than the competition and two, if you are going to play with a group of people the Wii is much more fun.

    But in two years the graphics for the Wii are going to look absolutely horendous. With the PS3 and 360 pumping out second and third generation titles the Wii is going to be in bad shape in the next two years. The Wii is a novelty and its charm will wear off once the big hits for the PS3 come out and the 360 drops in price.

    In my personal opinion I am putting a lot of weight behind the GTA series to really start pushing systems off of shelves (either PS3 or 360 it really doesn't matter) just like it did in 2001. I would give the Wii one more year or so, but after that I think it will be done for them in the mainstream market.
    Class of 2005...

  14. #14

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Soulquarian View Post
    But in other console's, the main feature and purpose wasn't the controller. It was a total package. The Wii lacks on everything BUT the controlling scheme. Soon, that's not going to cut it
    I wonder, Soul, if you were offered your money back for your Wii system right now, but you had to promise you wouldn't buy one anytime down the road, would you do it?
    Oh, and why or why not?

  15. #15

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    Re: Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by ssmccullough View Post
    As for the PS3 its such a nice peice of hardware, you have to admit. But nothing is compelling about it to pay $600.00 for one. I think that is why the Wii is selling better. Number one its way cheaper than the competition and two, if you are going to play with a group of people the Wii is much more fun.
    Here in the UK, PS3 launches next week at $860 compared to the Wii's launch price of $360. Plus the Wii is more fun to play I should imagine based on comparing the launch titles. Add to the fact that I don't need Blu Ray thank you very much. I was able to buy a recordable DVD player with 80 gb hard drive and a Wii for less than the price of a PS3. I know I prefer the choice I made.
    Let's put the Walt back in Disney!





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