This is for folks who will have to renew under the new Annual Passholder Prices effective August of 2008.
I just checked the math in regards to which is better, to renew with a discount, or letting it expire, and getting a new AP on the next visit.
If we are talking about a $389 Premium pass, that will be discounted $30 dollars to $359, the cost is 98.356 cents per day, which makes the discount equal 30 days worth with the new price. (Note, Disney increased the Premium AP discount from $20 to $30 in September of 2008).
Therefore for example, if your Premium Annual Pass expires 12/1/08, and you plan to go prior to December 31st, then you will want to renew. But if you weren't planning to return until sometime in 2009, then you will want to let your old pass expire, and purchase a new pass when you return, say February 14th. You pay $389, but you will get an new expiration date of 2/14/10.
With the Deluxe at $269, and $20 off, that makes it $249, and 68.22 cents per day, and therefore, 29 days. So this time, if you would go anytime in the first 29 days after the current expiration date, then renew, otherwise let it expire.
A deluxe with parking, it is 24 days.
Since the SoCal and SoCal Select does NOT offer a discount for renewing, of course, just let the old pass expire and just get a new one on your next visit after the old one expired.
So, let's recap.
If you are a SoCal holder, or a SoCal select, DON'T renew!
A Deluxe holder should renew if they plan to go within 29 days of the expiration date.
A Deluxe with Parking should renew if they plan to go within 24 days.
A Premium AP holder should renew if they plan to go within 30 days.