When Will it Be Busy at Disneyland - 2009 Edition

[Darkbeer]

Also, the LARGEST Convention that Anaheim hosts every year, the NAMM Show is from January 15th through the 18th. Add the Holiday weekend, and that equals large crowds.

There is a reason why Disney picked only two weekends for Fireworks in early 2009. And they are the two busiest by far, MLK, JR and Presidents day weekends.

[sir clinksalot]

Originally Posted by Juni

How absolutely insanely horrible are the crowds going to be the 17-19th? I get the double shot of MLK weekend and some convention right?


It's going to be AWESOME.

:::slinks off to wish I had given birth just a week earlier:::

Originally Posted by Darkbeer

Also, the LARGEST Convention that Anaheim hosts every year, the NAMM Show is from January 15th through the 18th. Add the Holiday weekend, and that equals large crowds.

There is a reason why Disney picked only two weekends for Fireworks in early 2009. And they are the two busiest by far, MLK, JR and Presidents day weekends.

Yep. Next weekend we are for sure avoiding the parks. NAMM is big in and of itself, and now it's a holiday weekend.

Has NAMM ever been on MLK weekend before? I can't remember if it has or not.

[sediment]

NAMM: "North American Meat Market"?

[sir clinksalot]

NAMM = National Association of Music Merchants

[sediment]

I know.
Just looked it up.

Nothing on their web site about discount tickets to DL. And holiday weekend means a lot of APs are blocked, right? Deluxe are not blocked. SoCal's blocked only on Saturday.

Being "Music Merchants" might mean lot of Disney fans.

[MissPlaced]

So, the weekend is going to be crazy right through Monday. Will things lighten up quickly on Tuesday or do those NAMM people linger?

[sediment]

Introducing "The Crowd Index"!!!

Scale is 0 to 10.

0 being nearly empty -- imagine a walk-on to Space Mountain, or at least a walk to the seat-allocating CM.

10 being "close the gates."

Do note that this does not directly tie with "unofficial" attendance (tiotal number of guests entering in a day), and not even "at-this-second attendance" (how many guests are in the park "right now"). On a typical day, the Crowd Index goes from 0 (no guests in the park before opening) to some daily high, then back down to 0.
Also, a busy day in the offseason might register a 7, while a busy day in summer might register a 5, due to policies that change the capacity figure.

On a daily basis, it looks similar to this chart:
Disneyland Attendance Info - Hourly attendance / queue length - The Disneyland Linkage

On a by-day/month basis, the index looks similar to this chart:
Disneyland Attendance Info - Daily Attendance / Queue Length - The Disneyland Linkage

Naturally, the Xmas-NYE days are 10s. So is 4-July. 17-July-2005 was as well.

Your comfort zone is up to you. I think I max out at 4 or so. Some like it at 9.

So, I will be using this Index instead of "should be OK," or "extremely crowded." I invite others to use it as well. This should not be a subjective rating, but since it is relatively new (just came out of my head in the last hour or so), I welcome feedback and aggregated (not aggravated) agreement.

[sediment]

Originally Posted by MissPlaced

So, the weekend is going to be crazy right through Monday. Will things lighten up quickly on Tuesday or do those NAMM people linger?

Lighten up.
Crowd Index = 3 max.
Weekend could get up to 7 or 8.

[Darkbeer]

FYI, Sediment, the Scottware charts are seriously out of date. (and yes, I do provide him some of his info).

But the charts are about 10 years in the past as regards to the daily traffic flows.

Disney has aggressively promoted some former slow times with ticket discounts to try and "level" out their attendance.

Heck, the 2009 "Pay for Disneyland, get DCA for FREE!" offer is good for Memorial Day weekend (BOTH dates).

I can tell you that the weekdays in early September (just after Labor Day until the start of the Halloween events) are the slowest time of the year now.

January through April - Combo of Out-of-Town discounts ("Everyone at the Kid's Price, discounted Hotel rooms, etc.) plus the 2fer makes it busy.. add Spring Easter Break, Holidays, Conventions, Cheer/Dance conventions and there is no real slow time in the first few months.

Late April and most of May is the second slowest time now, and why Disney has decided to extend the 2fer offer until June this year.

And after the first few weeks of September, you have the Halloween Time/Christmas promos.

[MissPlaced]

Originally Posted by Darkbeer

I can tell you that the weekdays in early September (just after Labor Day until the start of the Halloween events) are the slowest time of the year now.

I wonder if that will change this year. There are a WHOLE LOT of birthdays around then (including mine!).

There's something about those cold months...

[Darkbeer]

Let me talk about this upcoming holiday weekend...

Hotel Rooms - Good Luck, as they will be hard to find and expensive due to the combo of the NAMM show and the holiday weekend. (Though cancellations might find you a decent deal)

What will Disney do? They have planned to schedule enough staff, and place warning signs to handle Capacity Crowds. While it is hard to tell in advance, but with good weather, the current major ads for Disneyland (mainly the 2fer) and many locals showing up, you could have SELL out crowds at Disneyland through Monday the 19th.

As for the NAMM crowd in general, many folks bring their family to Anaheim, and yes, the day or two prior or after the convention can bring large crowds, as the participants spend time with their families. Will it create a capacity issue, no! But it will bring in extra people, more than likely until Wednesday, January 21st.

Also don't forget that many of the NAMM sponsors will rent out areas of the Disneyland Resort, including the parks (Hyperion and Stage 17 for sure, plus the Festival Arena) and then the Hotel restaurants (I made a mistake of going to Yamibuki one year during NAMM! Over a 2 hour wait!) and then they will rent out places like the ESPN Zone and House of Blues....

[MissPlaced]

Originally Posted by Darkbeer

Also don't forget that many of the NAMM sponsors will rent out areas of the Disneyland Resort, including the parks (Hyperion and Stage 17 for sure, plus the Festival Arena) and then the Hotel restaurants (I made a mistake of going to Yamibuki one year during NAMM! Over a 2 hour wait!) and then they will rent out places like the ESPN Zone and House of Blues....

I tried making a priority seating reservation for the Napa Rose more than a month ago for January 21st, but it was full. Surprised the living daylights out of me. It's a couple of days after the convention, but still...

[sediment]

Originally Posted by Darkbeer

FYI, Sediment, the Scottware charts are seriously out of date. (and yes, I do provide him some of his info).

But the charts are about 10 years in the past as regards to the daily traffic flows.

Well, provide some update, then, to us.
I would adjust the late night crowds for less drop-off for F! and fireworks, but then it would be a dynamic chart depending on four or five variables besides time of day.
Surely, it can be used as a general guideline if one knows where to adjust it?

OK, I read the rest.
I'd probably go with, say, three general crowd levels to start, lump the "off-season" into one level. At some low crowd level, an extra 5000 guests are not felt.

[Darkbeer]

Originally Posted by MissPlaced

I wonder if that will change this year. There are a WHOLE LOT of birthdays around then (including mine!).

There's something about those cold months...

I am not sure, currently, I have been told that about 1,000 person a day take advantage of the Birthday offers.

By September, the word of mouth might increase the attendance, and yes, due to the Christmas/New Years holidays, more children are conceived around the end of the year, and therefore are born about 9 months lately. But if you do the math, that is LATE September/Early October, which places the max during Halloween Time.

[sediment]

Originally Posted by MissPlaced

I tried making a priority seating reservation for the Napa Rose more than a month ago for January 21st, but it was full. Surprised the living daylights out of me. It's a couple of days after the convention, but still...

Hmm, I'd keep trying at least once a day. Maybe change your voice each time a little. Something huge might be going on, say, board of directors are hashing out the quarterky results or something. If you can change to a different night or a different time, that might be a better plan.