How much success for Phase 2.

[SoCalFan]

I originally posted this in the DCA Project Tracker, however someone suggest I post this as a seperate thread to maybe get a better chance at a clear answer so here it goes.

Ok so I was thinking(can be a dangerous thing I know) and it's a question that is probably one that would be better asked to Lutz but there are many insiders on this board who might know just as much so I will give it a shot. Most everyone has pointed that after this Phase 1 expansion, there will be a Phase 2 expansion that is more concentrated on building within the empty spaces in the park and plussing the existing attractions. Most have said the funding and approval of this Phase 2 relies heavily on the success of Phase 1. Phase 1 will more than likely be a huge success. So my question is how much success is needed for the approval of Phase 2 and is there such things as "too much success" in Phase 1 that could hinder Phase 2 as it is not deemed as necessary? I think from the rumors we have heard , Phase 2 will have a whole other objective than Phase 1 and is in turn, just as necessary. Phase 1 is the transformation of DCA into a full day park with more family attractions and lands and great, new theming and redoing of lands to bring a whole new face to the park. Phase 2 sounds like it is more about strengthening the park and theme and improving on the smaller things that will make the difference and also bringing a possible original ride. I remember Al once even mentioning the inclusion of more and bigger festivals throughout the year to compliment the already hugely popular Food and Wine festival, as a part of Phase 2. It needs to happen. So again my question is, how much success is needed for the approval of Phase 2 and is there such things as "too much success" in Phase 1 that could hinder Phase 2 as it is not deemed as necessary?

[MistaDee]

I had heard that once the attendance starts pushing 8 million they can go for it. Even if it doesn't reach that I am confident that we will see some form of change.

[SoCalFan]

8 million a year. How much does DCA currently pull in?

[MistaDee]

2008 it was 5 compared with disneyland at 14

[006TOE]

DCA pulled in a little over 6 million last year

http://www.teaconnect.org/etea/2009ThemeIndex.pdf

[SoCalFan]

So not too much more to make 8 million. That's a little reassuring

[MistaDee]

I think that Carsland alone will help pull in 8 million as much as I dislike the idea of it I see it being very successful in bringing people in, ever since I first started hearing about Carsland I began noticing just how much merchandise there is everywhere you look where kids are there is just a plethora of Cars stuff.

[006TOE]

Carsland defiantly, but by the time that opens they'll already have the numbers.

I think little mermaid is all it needs to pull in the 8.
People who've been going to Disneyland have been waiting for years for a little mermaid ride. Everyone's gonna cross the esplanade to ride that one.
Add that to the sudden surge in attendance to see world of color and I think 8 mils gonna be easy.

[mycroft16]

With WoC open now it's going to drive higher numbers for quite some time... consistently.

With TLM opening next year they will get another boost in numbers.
The retheme of PP area is very positively received among guests. I've heard comments from people when just sitting around saying how much nicer it is now. TSMM always has at least a 30 - 45 minute wait. The whole PP area feels more crowded now as they transform it into a more pleasant place to be. Axing the Maliboomer and altering the theme of MM to fit better into the pier as GSS along with the dining area there will really push the pier even further towards coherence.

BVS will definitely make the park much more inviting a place to be which will bring people in and KEEP them in.

Adding the Red Car trolley will also add motion and help draw people down into the HPB area and from there into Carsland.

Carsland will be a huge draw with its 3 attractions and amazing thematic details.

I don't think they will have much trouble getting an additional 2 million.

[Caro]

Good questions, I'm interested in seeing what others have to say too. It's just my opinion but I think with the attention from WoC, Little Mermaid and Carsland they will have no trouble bringing in the needed numbers. It's the new thing everyone wants to see. We've seen the publicity they are willing to put out and the people's response to it with WoC alone.

Can they bring in too much to make them think they don't need phase 2? I think it's possible. Unless they see that what they have planned for phase 2 can make them even more in attendance and merchandise they could view it as not needed "maintenance".

[SoCalFan]

Can they bring in too much to make them think they don't need phase 2? I think it's possible. Unless they see that what they have planned for phase 2 can make them even more in attendance and merchandise they could view it as not needed "maintenance".

This is what I fear. That Phase 2 which is said to have more thematic plusses will be seen as less necessary as park is doing very well and it will be pushed aside. DCA will do well after Phase 1 but I feel Phase 2 is just as necessary for it to be truly successful

[Giraffe Lounge]

Not to be negative, but I doubt we'll see a substantial Phase II for DCA. We'll see some additional updates after Carsland, but it won't be the scope of Phase I.

More likely, we'll see the proposed E-Ticket additions to Disneyland getting the big dollars as a balance.

[flynnibus]

either way.. people will defend it as happening. Any future update will be labeled 'phase II' even if there isn't a large inbulk group of additions/changes made. Things shelved but might return later will be labeled as proof phase II happened, etc.

[4Apples4Disney]

It's going to be interesting the next couple years. As mentioned above, I'm curious as to what more will happen to DCA, and really curious as to what might happen to Disneyland.

[Giraffe Lounge]

either way.. people will defend it as happening. Any future update will be labeled 'phase II' even if there isn't a large inbulk group of additions/changes made. Things shelved but might return later will be labeled as proof phase II happened, etc.

That's very fair, it will be hard to define a Phase II unless its publicly unveiled in the same way that Phase I was -- which is spectacularly unlikely.

My point is simply that after Phase I of DCA is finished the bulk of the cap ex dollars will shift back to Disneyland.