What will Happen if the "Big One" Hits disneyland?

[Dlandclub33]

How structurally safe is disneyland? I was wondering this because last week on the radio, Professor Joann Stock from Cal-tech, was talking about the periodic shifting of the san Andrea's fault every XXX years. And she said we were 300 years overdo? (correct me if i'm wrong) And that It would be very Naive If the "big One" didn't happen in your life time. So What attractions do you think would be not as structurally sound as others?

P.S. Dont let this stop you from going to disneyland. If this were to happen the west coast would be in the same pickle.

[Mr Wiggins]

How structurally safe is disneyland? I was wondering this because alst week on the radio a girl from Cal-tech was on the Radio saying that you would be Naive not to experience it in your lifetime. Your thought?

I think it's highly likely that the "girl" from CalTech wasn't quoted entirely accurately.

[Maverick]

It's still there now isn't it?

[NOCC]

I prefer not to think about it too much, but when I'm walking under some of those large, old buildings, like POTC, HM, and the Old Admin building-- all built in the 60's--I can't help but wonder how sound they are.

[Dlandclub33]

I'm sorry for saying girl, I looked it up, and she's professor Joann Stock of Cal Tech. :] Sorry bout that

[Mr Wiggins]

I'm sorry for saying girl, I looked it up, and she's professor Joann Stock of Cal Tech. :] Sorry bout that

I sorta-kinda doubt that Professor Stock literally said "you would be naive not to experience the Big One in your lifetime."

I could believe she said "Naive not to expect to experience an earthquake of some strength in your lifetime." Or "Naive not to be prepared for the possibility of the Big One in your lifetime."

But you will experience the Big One in your lifetime is an alarming prediction that no seismologist would make.

I'm not trying to play "word-gotcha" with the OP. My point is that when quoting authorities on subjects of disasters, potential disasters or life-threatening emergencies, please get the the facts straight and the quotes accurate. We don't need more earthquake alarmism and rumors.


EDIT: The OP has rewritten his post. My point still stands.

[Dlandclub33]

I'm Sorry! You are right Mr. Wiggins. I said it wrong. I really meant to "expect it
' not "experience it".

[mycroft16]

The important thing to remember here is that when discussing earthquakes, seismologists always say "it could happen tomorrow, it could happen in 100 years." So they are ALWAYS expecting it because they know that a fault can snap at any time. They have no way to predict that yet, despite their best efforts. All they can do at this point is track the motion of faults.

There are several faults in the LA Basin that are of concern to seismologists and have a high probability of causing major earthquakes in the near future. Of course, given what the faults under LA look like, there are ALWAYS several in this situation.

[Mr Wiggins]

^ Exactly right.

From a post in another thread on this topic...

Anyone realized this year has been full of Earth Quakes. Now California has had one. Wonder if were getting closer to the big one? :o

Yes and no. Yes, we're getting closer (each year that goes by we do, of course), and no, the recent quakes do not mean the Big One is any more or less imminent.

From the April 13 L.A. Times:

Seismologists in California were busy this week fighting rumors apparently floating on Twitter that a major earthquake was likely in the next few days. Officials at Caltech say that rumor is not true -- and that no such prediction can be made. But researchers say there has been an uptick in earthquakes this year.

The number of earthquakes greater than magnitude 4.0 in Southern California and Baja California has increased significantly in 2010. There have been 70 such quakes so far this year, the most of any year in the last decade. And it's only April. There were 30 in 2009 and 29 in 2008.

Seismologists said they are studying the uptick but cannot fully explain it. Major earthquakes tend to occur in cycles, and experts have said the region in recent years has been in a quiet cycle when it comes to sizable temblors.

The string of quakes this year raises the possibility that Southern California might again be entering a more active seismic period. Scientists said the increase does not mean the Big One is any more imminent, but it could mean more significant quakes are on the way.

But another report quoting the U.S. Geological Survey states:

This year has seen major quakes in Haiti, Chile, Mexico, and now China. However, while this succession of major, devastating quakes could be seen as unusual, there is little reason to believe that frequency of major earthquakes has increased significantly since the network of seismographs was established.

According to the United States Geological Survey, the annual number of earthquakes worldwide having a magnitude of M6.0-M6.9 is 134. For quakes M7.0-M7.9, the number lowers to 17. For great quakes of M8.0 or greater, the number is near 1.

The estimates for M6.0-M6.9 temblors are based upon data since 1990. Otherwise, the dates reflect observations since 1900.

And from the British Geological Survey:

Recent devastating earthquakes in Haiti, Chile and China, as well as magnitude 7+ earthquakes in Indonesia and California, might give the impression that earthquake activity is increasing. In fact, a quick look at earthquake statistics over the last 20 years shows that this is not the case.

On average there are about 15 earthquakes every year with a magnitude of 7 or greater. As with any almost random phenomena, the number of earthquakes each year varies slightly from this average, but in general, there are no dramatic variations.

So far this year, there have been six magnitude 7+ earthquakes, in keeping with the annual rate.

[ttztotdca50]

Regarding Disneyland in an Earthquake: I doubt I'm allowed to say exactly what, but for the most part (as in, you can never be completely sure), Disney is very much ready for an earthquake. CMs are trained to know what to do and where to go and where/how to direct guests.

Regarding Earthquakes in General: I like the small earthquakes... that usually means that those small tremors could be relieving stress off of the large faults, thus reducing the chance of a major earthquake.

[Asylim]

Having spent the last 16 years writing emergency (disaster) response plan and training programs all I can suggest is to be prepared to be on your own for at least 72 hours after a major quake. (I live in Metro Vancouver which has a nasty fault or two of its own).

The LA Fire Department has a pretty good preparedness booklet (PDF format) here that can help if you've not given it much thought http://lafd.org/eqbook.pdf

Be prepared but don't panic or worry about it. Might not ever happen. But I figure it doesn't hurt to have some emergency supplies stocked away just in case.

One thing I noticed when in LA this past February. Some places are still using the old "go stand in a door way" instruction during an earthquake. I can't stress enough how out dated that thinking is. All the new stuff will tell you to basically duck and cover. Standing a door way can place you in the path of debris flight paths (shattering glass etc) or could cause you to get your hands slammed in closing doors etc.

[noleafclover1980]

I can honestly day that if the "big one" hits, last thing I'm worried about is if Disneyland holds up OK.

[Trainfanbob]

Yes we have very good evacuation plans at Disneyland, If the big one did hit I think you would be more worried about how you were going to get back home and just how long it would take to get there on foot or by bike!!!

[plagued]

if an earthquake that large hits, i'm pretty sure most of the destruction and lost lives wont be due to the shaking and falling buildings.. but from the resulting fires that will spring up directly after.

[Barbossa]

If you can time it just right, just think of the enhanced experience you'll get out of the earthquake scene on Big Thunder!