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  1. #1

    • Indy's Faithful Friend
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    Sad "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading

    The title pretty much says it all. When I look at Touring Plans estimates of 3/10 for crowds in May I tend to expect a smaller crowd level than Spring Break or summer. Yet the amount of people within the park is something quite different. Only one of the five days I visited did it actually seem like a 3/10 and it was raining that day.

    I'm not saying Touring Plans isn't accurate but... Well, yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. The crowd level in the park doesn't match the estimate they provide. It looked much more like a 6/10. 40 or 50 minute waits for most attractions. Lines in the restroom. Pushing to squeeze into certain gift shops.

    I've been to Disneyland many times. I'm used to crowds but seeing Touring Plans crowd numbers can be misleading. I suggest the average person add 2 to any crowd level number provide by Touring Plans.

  2. #2

    • Rock Star Minion
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    Re: "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading

    If that site is not constantly updating its database (daily), then the info it provides won't be of use. I'm guessing a lot of its data is obsolete for predicting crowd sizes on specific days.

    I mean, I could probably make an easy model. That wouldn't make it accurate.
    "Here You Leave the World of California Today and Enter the World of, um, er, California Today."

  3. #3

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    Re: "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading

    Rule of thumb...go to disneyland Monday thru thurs and the crowds are manageable...I dunno where they get their logistical data, but their forecasts are strange and crowd levels fluctuate throughout the day, thats why I always leave the park from 2pm-6pm and go take a nap...

  4. #4

    • Vidia's Minion
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    Re: "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading

    Yes it's been weird lately. I few 'supposed to be' 6's have turned into 9/10's. Then again though they're just predictions.

    I have a hard time believing the 3rd is going to be a 5 and 2.9 at dland park itself with that being the public opening of star tours. :-p

  5. #5

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    Re: "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading

    I agree.

    I also don't understand why crowds are frequently estimated at or very near "10" (i.e. "9.6") on days when yes, the parks are crowded, but but at maximum levels - e.g. not even near the level that would cause entrance to be halted (e.g. frequently on July 4th, Dec. 31st, or the week after Christmas). This should be a "10" and everythign else should be less.

  6. #6

    • Future Imagineer
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    Re: "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading

    Anybody who goes on a crowded day should get there early. As early as possible so there are little to no waits for the major e-ticket rides. Also even during the summer the middle of the week is far more manageable than the weekends.

  7. #7

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    Re: "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading

    Touring Plans provides a statistical analysis of crowds based on previously recorded data with wait time percentiles, not a straight 0-10 with the parks being empty to capacity.
    The TouringPlans.com Crowd Calendar rankings are based on wait times for all days on record. When a day is predicated as a 1 out of 10, it doesn’t mean that the parks are empty, just that when compared to other days these wait times are in the bottom 10%.

    http://micechat.com/forums/blogs/dat...ress-more.html
    What that really means is that the crowd levels reported depend on actual wait times, not crowds in the park. Yes, the two generally correlate with each other, but the difference in percentiles between 30%-60% may not be all that far off when compared to available wait time statistics. Fact is, there are far more "crowded" days at Disneyland. That provides data with not a whole lot of deviation towards one end or the other. It's that lack of deviation that fails to provide a noticeable difference when dealing with much of the numbers in the middle.

    Personally, I don't rely on any of the crowd prediction calendars. It's Disneyland. Plan on it being busy, get there early, and hit the fastpass machines.

  8. #8

    • Not on the Jedi Council
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    Re: "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading

    I asked em about the Star Tours opening, and they said based on what they've seen, the new rides will be flooded, but not the rest of the parks, apparently.

    The numbers are based on historical data from previous years, and they factor in weekends or not, so far as I know. Doesn't mean other things won't change how things really turn out.

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