Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 18
  1. #1

    • New Member
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    42

    Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    After a year break, I renewed my Premium AP on Saturday. A friend and I went yesterday at 3 pm and were surprised to see how crowded it was.

    I read on OC Register website and here on Miceage that Touring Plans only expected the parks to be 2.7 and 2.9 out of 10, however the waits for the rides were not compatible to what Touring Plans considers a 2.7-2.9 by their description.

    At 3 pm, California Screamin was a 25 minute wait and, no surprise, crowds came in around 4-5pm, resulting in waits of 60 mins for SOA and 70 mins for ToT.

    So I guess what I am saying is....I was surprised at how crowded it was in the afternoon compared to Touring Plans' prediction, especially regarind how crowded the parks got later. Looking at their predictions in the past, they seems to lowball. Anyone else have this experience with their predictions?

  2. #2

    • MiceChat Round-Up Crew
    • Nikon +Disneyland = :)
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    12.5 minutes from Disneyland
    Posts
    14,007
    Blog Entries
    9

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    So far, I don't think their batting average has been that great for the Month of May. They had predicted crowd level a couple of weeks ago at a 1 and it was moderately crowded...more like a 5 or a 6. I think Touring plans is using historical information to ball park attendance numbers, but with a million annual passholders floating around, all bets are off on a given day. The day in question was a Thursday a couple weeks ago, and I was SHOCKED at how many people were in the parks on a weekday in early May. Not sure if year round schools being out or different holiday schedules over seas has an impact, but Touring Plans would do well to adjust the Month of May next year upwards of three to four levels per day.

  3. #3

    • Rock Star Minion
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    13,338

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    This whole thing has a bit of "Observer Effect" in it. If enough of the guest population (that includes everyone thinking about going on a certain day) is privy to the Touring Plans knowledge, the outcome will differ from what was expected.
    I.e., does predicted crowd level affect the actual crowd level?

    Also, there is likely a very large variance in the prediction that is not published. That makes the prediction less statistically credible.

    Lastly, the weather plays a big part in this. Nice weather (between 70 and 80 degrees) bumps up the crowds about 15,000-25,000. And bad weather does the opposite. Not sure if the weather of a particular day is taken into account on Touring plans. Nor whether the weather of the data that are used to make the prediction was considered.
    "Here You Leave the World of California Today and Enter the World of, um, er, California Today."

  4. #4

    • Vidia's Minion
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    747

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    I was there yesterday too. My guess would be a 3-4 maybe it seemed pretty nice most of the day. Yeah around noon it was a little busy but not really that bad. I did see quite a few groups of large kids (err large in number not size LOL) leaving late afternoon so maybe it was a day of many field trips or something.

    The popular rides seem to always get the default 40 minutes (peter pan, Indiana Jones etc) but moving around you could definitely tell crowd level was pretty low (also wait times and the amount of open seats in all the places to eat). First time I ever walked into River Belle Terrace and saw 2 people in line in front of me (this was maybe 7:30ish pm).

    Edit- I agree with MacDaddy their averages have been a bit off lately.

  5. #5

    • Banned User
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    1,948

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    I think it's a nice gauge, but I never really take their numbers to heart. AP attendance has been volatile for the past 4 years, with a lot of the old "slow" times/days doing a complete 180 in terms of attendance. Now, when I plan a trip to the park ... I usually pay more attention to blackout days and try to go when the deluxes are blacked out.

  6. #6

    • Disney Fan 4 Life
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Close to San Diego
    Posts
    644

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    Keep in mind that yesterday was the AP event for Fantasmic and that might have bumped up attendance a bit. We were there from 5pm and until the park closed the majority of the rides were short and only as it neared closer to the 10pm closing did some rides feel really crowded (the exception would be the E ticket rides like SP which seemed to maintain the 40 to 55 minute wait until the end.) And of course during the event, my husband and DD actually rode BTMRR 10 times.
    Here You Leave Today and Enter the World of Yesterday, Tomorrow, and Fantasy.

    To all who come to this happy place; welcome. Disneyland is your land. Here age relives fond memories of the past...and here youth may savor the challenge and promise of the future. Disneyland is dedicated to the ideals, the dreams and the hard facts that have created America...with the hope that it will be a source of joy and inspiration to all the world. - Walt Disney, Disneyland Opening Day Speech 1955


    View my new Budget Disney Blog here: http://budgetdisneylandresort.blogspot.com/

  7. #7

    • Banned User
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,497

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    The spring seasonal passes are still in effect. One more week left.

  8. #8

    • Certified in everything
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    I'll never tell!
    Posts
    546

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    Touring Plans has always been pretty spot on for me. Last night you may have seen a surge in wait times later in the day due to the AP Fantasmic! event that probably lead to a lot of later arrivals, thus inconsistent with a normal Tuesday attendance projection. Just a thought.
    Disneyland Wooooh!

    "You see- Everybody's got a laughin' place, trouble is most folks won't take the time to go look for it."

  9. #9

    • Member
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    107

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    I don't know to me, touring plans is mostly incorrect. I have came many times when touring plans predicted it would be a 2 or 3 and it seemed like a 6 or 7. I guess it changes because the amount of annual pass holders now.

    Touring plan however does great with WDW I heard....and it seems like they are always there from their tweets on twitter. Just made me wonder if there are actual reporters in Disneyland for touring plans as well.

  10. #10

    • Rock Star Minion
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    13,338

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    So, Touring Plans didn't make an adjustment to their prediction based on public-knowledge information such as Spring Promotion and AP Fantasmic! event?

    Imagine Sigalert.com predicting traffic patterns by looking only at past trends and ignoring current accidents.
    "Here You Leave the World of California Today and Enter the World of, um, er, California Today."

  11. #11

    • Sock Puppet
    • Offline

    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    62

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    Quote Originally Posted by sediment View Post
    This whole thing has a bit of "Observer Effect" in it. If enough of the guest population (that includes everyone thinking about going on a certain day) is privy to the Touring Plans knowledge, the outcome will differ from what was expected.
    I.e., does predicted crowd level affect the actual crowd level?

    Also, there is likely a very large variance in the prediction that is not published. That makes the prediction less statistically credible.

    Lastly, the weather plays a big part in this. Nice weather (between 70 and 80 degrees) bumps up the crowds about 15,000-25,000. And bad weather does the opposite. Not sure if the weather of a particular day is taken into account on Touring plans. Nor whether the weather of the data that are used to make the prediction was considered.
    I could see that, if enough people go by that and see it isn't supposed to be that crowded, so decide to go on that day, it could throw things off. Same as how on some days when people think it will be insanely crowded so they don't bother going, and the crowds end up not being that bad.

  12. #12

    • Certified in everything
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    I'll never tell!
    Posts
    546

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    Quote Originally Posted by sediment View Post
    So, Touring Plans didn't make an adjustment to their prediction based on public-knowledge information such as Spring Promotion and AP Fantasmic! event?

    Imagine Sigalert.com predicting traffic patterns by looking only at past trends and ignoring current accidents.
    The resort-wide crowd average for the entire day is different than specific onetime line data. The original posted clearly says the lines were longer than what would be expected on a 2.5 day, not that lines were longer than what was actually posted in the app. I was there Monday. The app correctly showed longer line times at night for me, but yes these lines times were longer than what it said would be expected on a 2.5 day. The Touring Plans one time park crowd prediction looks at the whole day, not individual moments. To put it in the context of the sigalert.com analogy, it would be like if sigalert.com said traffic would be light on Sunday all day and then an accident slowed traffic for an hour. That doesn't change the overall day-long traffic prediction, it just changes the prediction in that moment. Sigalert.com would still be able to correctly display that overall traffic Sunday would be light.
    Disneyland Wooooh!

    "You see- Everybody's got a laughin' place, trouble is most folks won't take the time to go look for it."

  13. #13

    • Member
    • Offline

    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Southern California
    Posts
    470

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    This is why I am glad I haven't paid for their service. I haven't been impressed. I was there yesterday and it was a lot more crowded than I would have assumed, but I am also not selling a service that's supposed to be top-quality and the best around (even if prediction can never been perfect). Anyway, I have gone on days that were supposed to be a 6-7 and they were more crowded with longer wait times than on days that were supposed to be 9s.

  14. #14

    • One More Day
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Degobah
    Posts
    242

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    Its a gauge for me, I was there last Saturday and it was very busy. I think its because they had some Marching Band thing going on, the mad scramble to avoid Price Increase, Grad Night the night before, the fact they moved Bats Day to that Sunday, and the Fantasmic 20th Anniversary showing.

    I also tried to use Mousewait app but sometimes its not that accurate either.

  15. #15

    • Member
    • Offline

    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Smoke Tree Ranch, Palm Springs
    Posts
    364

    Re: Is Touring Plans always this inaccurate?

    The Gumball Rally must have had a bigger impact than they were expecting!

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 22
    Last Post: 01-25-2012, 01:02 PM
  2. [Review] "Touring Plans" Crowd Numbers are misleading
    By Sallah in forum Disneyland Resort
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 05-24-2011, 02:36 PM
  3. Knott's Touring Plans
    By gpiltz in forum Knott's Berry Farm and Cedar Fair Parks
    Replies: 30
    Last Post: 03-31-2011, 11:19 AM
  4. Knott's Touring Plans
    By gpiltz in forum Other Destinations
    Replies: 30
    Last Post: 03-31-2011, 11:19 AM
  5. Roger Waters touring "The Wall" this fall
    By sir clinksalot in forum Disney and Industry Theatrical, Music and Publishing Discussion
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 04-15-2010, 10:50 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •