No more annual passes in 2013?

[MaloCS]

But you're still basing all your calculations on the idea that disney is paying for your visits after you have gone 5 times. This is not the case. The only thing disney is actually paying for is park operation cost which is NOT 125 a person. That number could be $20 a person for all we know. If that were the case an AP holder could go to the park 20 times and the premium AP alone would still be enough to generate a profit. Sure not as much profit as the full price guest but after the year is up, the profit probably ends up being quite similar on average. But like I said, no one knows how much the park costs to run.

But that is the magic number we need to know. How much it cost per guest to operate the park. Not the full price of a hopper because no one would go to DL as often as an AP holder does if everyone had to pay full price each visit. So the theoretical $125 a visit that disney is "losing" was never going to be theirs in any scenario. So what little profit disney may make per AP visit is still a profit that would not be there otherwise.

As for the increase in price, they did it because they could. Its simple economics, if you can increase prices and keep a similar demand, prices will go up.

Sorry, but I have to agree with christianAdam on this one. Disney absolutely keeps track of their gate numbers and applies a dollar amount to them based upon current rates. If the numbers say they should expect $50,000 revenue from the gate but they only pull in $25,000 the difference gets logged as a loss.

Now, we can argue that Disney expects to make up that loss in food and merchandise sales but it appears that this just isn't happening. I think we would be naive to believe that Disney doesn't track how much it costs them to service every guest in the park, regardless of if that guest paid full admission or not. The very presence of a person in the park costs Disney money and if that guest isn't spending enough on food and merchandise to offset that cost then it's a loss.

It seems safe to assume that the admission price covers the cost to service that guest during a full day at the park. This assumption would then lead me to believe that everything that guest spends in the park is mostly profit. However, with the APer Disney not only has to account for the initial cost of servicing that guest but then they have to find a way to make a profit off that guest. Like christianAdam already stated, it just doesn't seem to be happening and the entire concept is upside down.

[Pinrar]

So you don't think the rise in daily attendance drives up the amount it cost the park in it's daily operations? espcially when 60% of them are AP holders.

higher attendance = higher cost in park operation

but if 60% of those attending were AP holders who have gone more than 5 times then disney eats how much that entrance into the park was but it still has to keep up the cost of park operations due to the swell in attendance.

I factor in the "5 times" because for a Premium Annual Pass the cost is $649 whereas a 1 day park hopper is $125 and parking is $15 so $140 (amount for a 1day park hopper and parking) X's 5 trips = $700 which is more than the cost of a Premium AP. The cheaper the AP the less amount of trips you need to make for it to pay for itself.

Here's the break down

So-Cal Select = $269 so one would have to go only twice for the AP to pay for itself at $125 per trip and $15 for parking.
So-Ca = $329 so by your third visit your AP has more than paid for itself at $125 per ticket and $15 for parking
Deluxe = $469 so again by your fourth visit your AP has more than paid for itself at $125 per ticket and $15 for parking.
Premium = $649 by your fifth visit your AP has more than paid for itself at $125 per ticket and free parking at another $15

with the amount of crowding and the AP membership lying around the 1 million mark I could almost promise you the cost per guest to operate the park is far more than it should be.

Of course it drives up operational costs. Just not proportionally to increases in crowds. A big chunk of the costs probably has to be paid every day its open regardless of how small the crowds are. So even when the crowds are small, disney is still paying a pretty big ammount just to keep it open. When more people start to come in the costs definitely go up, but go up enough to make APs unprofitable? I doubt that.

---------- Post added 10-02-2012 at 02:53 PM ----------

Sorry, but I have to agree with christianAdam on this one. Disney absolutely keeps track of their gate numbers and applies a dollar amount to them based upon current rates. If the numbers say they should expect $50,000 revenue from the gate but they only pull in $25,000 the difference gets logged as a loss.

Now, we can argue that Disney expects to make up that loss in food and merchandise sales but it appears that this just isn't happening. I think we would be naive to believe that Disney doesn't track how much it costs them to service every guest in the park, regardless of if that guest paid full admission or not. The very presence of a person in the park costs Disney money and if that guest isn't spending enough on food and merchandise to offset that cost then it's a loss.

It seems safe to assume that the admission price covers the cost to service that guest during a full day at the park. This assumption would then lead me to believe that everything that guest spends in the park is mostly profit. However, with the APer Disney not only has to account for the initial cost of servicing that guest but then they have to find a way to make a profit off that guest. Like christianAdam already stated, it just doesn't seem to be happening and the entire concept is upside down.

Im pretty sure disney knows the difference between when a ticket holder and AP holder walk through the gates. Calculated separately, they both make profit in their own way. Im also sure disney knows exactly how much it costs to run the AP program and how much it generates in revenue. I highly doubt they calculate their AP numbers based on the standard ticket price.

They must have computers that can tell person X has an AP and has gone to the park Y ammount of times and spent Z ammount of dollars.

They must also know that Person X has costed DL Y ammount of dollars in operations cost, and has generated Z ammount of profit.

[christianAdam]

Of course it drives up operational costs. Just not proportionally to increases in crowds. A big chunk of the costs probably has to be paid every day its open regardless of how small the crowds are. So even when the crowds are small, disney is still paying a pretty big ammount just to keep it open. When more people start to come in the costs definitely go up, but go up enough to make APs unprofitable? I doubt that.

I could remember when there was such a thing as an "off season" at DLR, back then they would run the park on what seemed to be a skeleton crew. Any attractions that split into two lines was moved to just a single line, what little line there was, and they were running minimal ride vehicles. I could remember in particular that POTC was running only 1 boat at a time. They would also close down certain eateries simply for the fact that the crowds were so low they didnt need to open. So there is food and beverage costs saved as well. There were also times when the crowds were so small you could run into the same people in different lines through out the day.

So if they were to do away with the AP those legitimate off-season days would be back and the cost to run the park would shrink which IN TURN could actually benefit the guests by being able to offer lower prices to the park. That's the one part that I don't understand; Its a direct relationship...

Cost to run park goes up...ticket costs go up....

AP's are removed...off season comes...tickets can start to go down as cost of operation goes down.

in the end it would be a win-win

[MaloCS]

Im pretty sure disney knows the difference between when a ticket holder and AP holder walk through the gates. Calculated separately, they both make profit in their own way. Im also sure disney knows exactly how much it costs to run the AP program and how much it generates in revenue. I highly doubt they calculate their AP numbers based on the standard ticket price.

They must have computers that can tell person X has an AP and has gone to the park Y ammount of times and spent Z ammount of dollars.

They must also know that Person X has costed DL Y ammount of dollars in operations cost, and has generated Z ammount of profit.

Disney doesn't differentiate between overhead costs associated between APers and non-APers. To them, they are one in the same. The difference is that Disney wants to believe that if they give away their services for free that the APers will reward them with more dollars in the food and merchandise departments. Unfortunately, it appears that Disney miscalculated the spending tendencies of the APers once they're in the park.

[Pinrar]

Disney doesn't differentiate between overhead costs associated between APers and non-APers. To them, they are one in the same. The difference is that Disney wants to believe that if they give away their services for free that the APers will reward them with more dollars in the food and merchandise departments. Unfortunately, it appears that Disney miscalculated the spending tendencies of the APers once they're in the park.

That is really strange considering they both make their own profit. I mean what good does it do? The whole reason they bought APs is because they are discount for bulk basically. And they expect them to somehow generate the same revenue each day as the ticket holders?

The way I see it, the AP profit is a profit they wouldn't have had otherwise since most locals aren;t going to spend 650 a year on a bunch of park hoppers plus food and souvenirs each visit. So they shouldn't complain when it doesn't match tourist dollars.

I cant speak for all AP holders but I know that the day they get rid of the AP, they can kiss $650 from the pass and the hundreds I spend a year at the park goodbye. Without the pass I will go maybe once a year and spend $125 on tickets and $60 on food and merch.

[DJS]

Visualize this. The cost of the annual pass covers all open dates per tier.
If Disney expected the consumer to visit 5 times a year @ gate cost... Then they would issue punch cards and after the 5th visit, time for a new punch card.
Doesn't make sense.

The cost to run the park is far less than the amount generated daily by ticket sales. And let's say they find a deficit on, Thursdays...it is covered on Friday. This is a money making enterprise. They pay near minimum wage to a majority of their cm's.

I have a premium AP. On our 5th visit, we celebrated. It "felt" like we accomplished the payoff. Having Pre-paid the AP(s) we are looser with our money EVERY time we visit.
being from out of state, we stay near the park and boost the local economy. We spend in DLR, DCA and of course in DTD.

If we lived locally, we'd still spend nearly the same amount of $... Maybe more and in more visits. We have family who hold AP and they run in and out of the parks to ride a ride, eat dinner, buy merchandise... Sometimes it's all day, half day or even less.

The point is to get traffic in, then entice them to spend. It's how Casino's in Vegas operate.
Not everyone is going to be a whale, but a majority will drop coin in a machine, buy drinks or even just but a deck of cards...or not. But they have paid for a room.

It kind of felt like there was a little AP holder discrimination...from non AP holders...

[Dreamer10]

I heard a rumor from that annual passes may be eliminated in 2013. The reason is because the average annual passholder does not spend as much money while in the parks as a tourist. I certainly hope this rumor is not true. Has anyone else heard this? I know if I can't buy an annual pass I will not go to the parks more than once a year. I will also stop collecting Disney. The bright side - I will save a lot of money!

Where did you hear this?

[smartlabelprint]

I cant speak for all AP holders but I know that the day they get rid of the AP, they can kiss $650 from the pass and the hundreds I spend a year at the park goodbye. Without the pass I will go maybe once a year and spend $125 on tickets and $60 on food and merch.

I agree with this. Obviously I assume TDA has crunched the numbers and knows what the cost/benefit point is to offering APs vs. having a 1/2 empty park. While they can factor in a % of APs that won't come to the park as often if the AP is cancelled or modified they can't factor in the emotional aspect of what offending the APs would be. How many would switch to another park like Knott's or Six Flags just because they were angry?

As others have said I think they'll cancel the local APs, and possibly modify the Premium or Deluxe. As an out of state AP holder we are probably not costing the park as much money as local APs. We stay in the area and eat in the park for over 1/2 of our meals.

We would probably have a 4 day pass for $275. In those 4 days I assume we would spend $500 in the parks. $131/day per guest.

Now we're going for 14 days minimum this year for $469. I assume we'll spend $1400 in the parks. So, yes, less per day but we're still spending $1288 more. $116/day per guest.

Of course, I can't say the per guest daily rate that Disneyland needs to have to make a profit but they're obviously still making a profit off of us! If the AP is cancelled we'll stick to our 4 days a year. I assume they're hoping most people will keep coming as often as they were but I agree it's unlikely.

[christianAdam]

Visualize this. The cost of the annual pass covers all open dates per tier.
If Disney expected the consumer to visit 5 times a year @ gate cost... Then they would issue punch cards and after the 5th visit, time for a new punch card.
Doesn't make sense.

The cost to run the park is far less than the amount generated daily by ticket sales. And let's say they find a deficit on, Thursdays...it is covered on Friday. This is a money making enterprise. They pay near minimum wage to a majority of their cm's.

I have a premium AP. On our 5th visit, we celebrated. It "felt" like we accomplished the payoff. Having Pre-paid the AP(s) we are looser with our money EVERY time we visit.
being from out of state, we stay near the park and boost the local economy. We spend in DLR, DCA and of course in DTD.

If we lived locally, we'd still spend nearly the same amount of $... Maybe more and in more visits. We have family who hold AP and they run in and out of the parks to ride a ride, eat dinner, buy merchandise... Sometimes it's all day, half day or even less.

The point is to get traffic in, then entice them to spend. It's how Casino's in Vegas operate.
Not everyone is going to be a whale, but a majority will drop coin in a machine, buy drinks or even just but a deck of cards...or not. But they have paid for a room.

It kind of felt like there was a little AP holder discrimination...from non AP holders...

No discrimination here, I've had an AP for what will be 10 years in December.

This topic just sparked an interest and I enjoy a healthy debate

[smartlabelprint]

What i think is that cost of park operations does not increase proportionally to increased bodies in the parks. The staffing and the rate attractions run doesn't look much more increased when the park is say at 5/10 versus a 2/10 crowd. So i believe disney isn't paying that much more when attendance increases.

I agree that there's got to be some kind of breakeven point where a certain number of people in the park doesn't cost more to operate. The question is, are APs toppling that number? I think only the number-crunchers really know.

[Poisonedapples]

That's a little strong. Depending on one's work/school schedule, A SoCal or even a SoCal Select AP can get you into the park plenty of times.

I Was not referring to any pass other then the socal or the socal select the california resident ones, cause really they aren't that great. i love my premium and i wish for it to never go away.

[smartlabelprint]

I agree that Ap'ers do love their limited edition merch but that's once in awhile, not an every day occurance and yes OMDD brought in a lot of guests looking to score that exclusive merch but at the same time the vast majority were, again, AP holders who by now I'm sure were on DLR's dime for admission and so they lost profit as far as how many actual paying guests could've bought the same merch over the AP rush that came in and wiped them out. You bought a shirt at $35 but yet Disney paid $125 for you to get in that day....I still don't see how you made a profit. Yes the ticket booths were all filled because the park was at capacity and the again the vast majority of people in the park (yes I was there that night) were AP holders while the paying guests just sat in line waiting to get a ticket and most walked away empty handed...again...profit loss...



I think a good middle-ground would be to offer a 5-day park-hopper and make it good for the entire year

I don't think Disney pays $125 for an individual to get in. We'd need real #'s for that argument.

A 5 day annual parkhopper would be great, preferably 6 for someone like me coming from out of state. However, with one solution another problem is created. What about those scalping the parkhopper tickets--selling 1 day and asking for the ticket back to sell again the next day?

---------- Post added 10-02-2012 at 03:21 PM ----------

Do all the math you want if they didn't have the pass they would make about $300 a year off me. I stay at grand Californian a few times a year , eat all year , shop all year , Christmas shop there , and buy collectibles , just last week a $500 painting. I spend well over $10,000 a year there. If my premium pass wasn't making Disney money they would of eliminated it long ago. I spend about 70-100 days a year in the park. If ap's didn't exist DCA would of tanked long ago because we were the ones suporting it threw its rough time.

---------- Post added 10-02-2012 at 12:02 PM ----------

Also I go to Florida once a year and drop another $7,000 there

This is why I believe there will still be an AP of some sort, even if they increase the price. There are a few people for whom an even more expensive AP wouldn't be a problem.

[christianAdam]

I don't think Disney pays $125 for an individual to get in. We'd need real #'s for that argument.

A 5 day annual parkhopper would be great, preferably 6 for someone like me coming from out of state. However, with one solution another problem is created. What about those scalping the parkhopper tickets--selling 1 day and asking for the ticket back to sell again the next day?

the one solution to that would be to distribute the 5 or 6 day passes like an annual pass. Same rules apply as far as needing your pic (this could also prevent theft as well as scalping)

and I know Disney doesn't indivually pay for your ticket but I use it in reference to everytime an AP walks through the turnstiles it takes away from a potential non-AP guest being able to attend. That's why I used the example of OMDD but the same can be said for the 4th of July or New Years

[Druggas]

It might have INCREASED 200K to 1M due to the payment plan, but the number has been above 500K for quite some time.
Looking through some archives, but can't seem to find any figures.

---------- Post added 10-02-2012 at 02:32 PM ----------



It's not supposed to be EASY. It's the HARD that makes it great.

From my favorite movie!

[Poisonedapples]

But what if APs are driving attendance up to a 8/10 day from a 4/10 day? WOuld that increase the park's costs?

i love how the ap's holders are so fast to get blaimed(again) for the driving of the attendance up MAYBE I am reading that wrong, but that is how i see it . there is other factors, maybe tourists are planning their vacations in off peak times and or beginning of the seasons rather then in the middle of seasons like summer or fall or winter.

Either way, we all can take a deep breath, the AP's are still gonna be around in 2013 i am just guessing and i am sure they will..