At the same time individuals outside of California are excluded from SoCal, SoCalSelect, and monthly payments. So I would say statistically that CA residents are a much higher percentage of the overall AP population. If you factor in that SoCal and SoCalSelect have more blackout dates, logically it would indicate they are a higher overall percentage of the AP population.
This is true, which makes me wonder how folks are defining "local" as we talk about it. There's a pretty large area that does qualify one for a SoCal pass, but which, by the definition I've been using, would not qualify as "local". From the organizations I've worked with in California, a visitor is considered "local" if they traveled 50 miles or less. Farther than that puts them at "tourist". So someone from Chula Vista might have a SoCal AP but I'm not considering that person "local" even if that person goes 25 times a year, or doesn't use a pass for extended, vacation type trips, but rather a series of day trips. I'm guessing some folks are considering people locals as long as they live somewhere in southern California? I realize the conversation is more about the culture at the resort, which might mean "locals" really implies "people who come regularly" vs "people who only come on a trip they consider a vacation or some sort of special event" regardless of frequency (or precise geography).