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  1. #31

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Another rumor started on Micechat put to bed....

  2. #32

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Quote Originally Posted by Timicus View Post
    The question is moot because the goal post will be moved depending on the angle/view of the speaker
    It's not moot - it illustrates that you don't know which actually happened first.. and accepting that is a valid conclusion. You are just as guilty of moving the goal posts because you assume you were correct vs knowing. The correct answer is 'we dont know'.
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  3. #33

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Quote Originally Posted by flynnibus View Post
    You just postulated that the reason they didn't put dates out is because they need to figure it out once they get in there..
    Why would that put your dates at risk if you already have a planned schedule and max spend? You just responded as if it's crazy they don't have a schedule and budget. Ok.. so which is it? Disney doesn't give out blank checks, so they would have already planned a worst case and max spend, and if things take less... excellent great news everyone.. subs are opening early!

    The reason they didn't share a date isn't because they don't know a date... it's they don't want to tell us. That's fair in its own sense because customers get too attached to planned dates - but I don't buy for a second its because they have to wait to drain the lagoon to figure out when they can be done.

    Disney knows when they must be done.. because they will use the pocketbook to force it to be done.

    Or there is the conspiracy theory they don't share a date because they want to keep their options open.

    What will be telling is when we see actual refurb work happening in the lagoon or not.. after it's drained.
    He said this because you were unclear and used the term "open ended budget" as if disney does not care how much they spend on the refurb.
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  4. #34

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Quote Originally Posted by flynnibus View Post
    You just postulated that the reason they didn't put dates out is because they need to figure it out once they get in there..
    Quote Originally Posted by DJM View Post
    He said this because you were unclear and used the term "open ended budget" as if disney does not care how much they spend on the refurb.
    Exactly DJM. Your statement was very easily interpreted as saying that Disney didn't know anything. So I responded to you saying that obviously they have a timeframe and a budget. But they had a timeframe with Thunder as well, and it ended up going out a little longer in the end. You don't know exactly how much time you will need on every project until you get in and see what is really going on. And that is hard to do with a lagoon full of water. They obviously have a budget and time number they want to hit or come in under. Once they drain the lagoon and take a look around they will be able to say, yup... this is what we were expecting, we'll hit those numbers, or they'll say, we're going to need a bit more and give an assessment and final estimate. Like a car mechanic who gives you an estimate based on what he can see with out taking your car apart. Then, when he gets in there he lets you know final numbers. Do you see how both my original and reply to you are correct and accurate statements of possibility?

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  5. #35

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Doesn't matter anyway. MY sources say they're closing the ride, draining the lagoon, filling it with salsa and announcing the new corporate sponsorship with Tostitos - new slogan, "Join us on an adventure through deep flavor".











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  6. #36

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    What would Disney suddenly find in the lagoon without the water? The painted scenery and not much else. The projections are already in a dry environment. The guideway is passive. There is a dry dock to work on ride vehicles. I guess the inductive charging system could need work but only being accessible with a drained lagoon seems like a lapse in foresight.

  7. #37

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Lesson learned. I'm not believing anything on Miceage from now on until it actually happens.

  8. #38

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Quote Originally Posted by lazyboy97O View Post
    What would Disney suddenly find in the lagoon without the water? The painted scenery and not much else. The projections are already in a dry environment. The guideway is passive. There is a dry dock to work on ride vehicles. I guess the inductive charging system could need work but only being accessible with a drained lagoon seems like a lapse in foresight.
    Probably so they can shut down and clean the filtration system. That way it doesn't fill with algae. Also it has a big surface area so it may all evaporate and they would need to keep topping it off everyday son in the end save water.

    Do some maintenance on the switching system, AA and other submerged mechanical systems. Perhaps a good chance to install drip trays under the monorail. General maintenance like painting, pipework and more.
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  9. #39

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Quote Originally Posted by swampymarsh View Post
    Do some maintenance on the switching system, AA and other submerged mechanical systems. Perhaps a good chance to install drip trays under the monorail. General maintenance like painting, pipework and more.
    That's just the thing: general maintenance just doesn't make sense in this particular circumstance. Certainly not general maintenance that takes 10-12mos to complete. There's no way that they would design an attraction that required a 12 month refurbishment every 7 years. Especially after the much touted and expensive glass paint they used to limit the time between draining the lagoon. If after all the money they spent on preventing a draining, they have to go back and drain it anyway, they'd just be better off closing it now.

    Which is also why the Miceage article makes absolutely no sense either. If they were really bent on closing it, they would just close it. They have no motivation to lie to anyone about their intentions. They have nothing to gain by staging a fake refurbishment if they know right now they want it closed.

    There's another piece of this puzzle that is missing.

  10. #40

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Quote Originally Posted by flynnibus View Post
    It's not moot - it illustrates that you don't know which actually happened first.. and accepting that is a valid conclusion. You are just as guilty of moving the goal posts because you assume you were correct vs knowing. The correct answer is 'we dont know'.
    No, I never claimed to know. I haven't taken a position about whether the Subs are being refurbished or closing for good. I said/implied that reaching one conclusion doesn't validate one's view as the correct one.
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  11. #41

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    I don't really see the point in arguing this either way.

    Disney's official refurbishment schedule has the Subs closed Jan 6- Sep 26.
    http://media.disneywebcontent.com/St...rbishments.pdf

    And that's all we know. I personally don't trust the Disney PR machine, so this could go the way of Rocket Rods or People Mover ("Coming Back Soon"). It could be an actual refurbishment. It could be a permanent closure to make way for the rumored Tomorrowland Star Wars makeover, also rumored to be on hold due to Magic Band performance. The Sep 26th re-opening date is awfully close to the end of the fiscal year and doesn't coincide with any other opening dates, such as the Halloween season.

    Does it really matter, a month before it happens, what it is or isn't?

  12. #42

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Quote Originally Posted by MrLiver View Post
    That's just the thing: general maintenance just doesn't make sense in this particular circumstance. Certainly not general maintenance that takes 10-12mos to complete. There's no way that they would design an attraction that required a 12 month refurbishment every 7 years. Especially after the much touted and expensive glass paint they used to limit the time between draining the lagoon. If after all the money they spent on preventing a draining, they have to go back and drain it anyway, they'd just be better off closing it now.

    Which is also why the Miceage article makes absolutely no sense either. If they were really bent on closing it, they would just close it. They have no motivation to lie to anyone about their intentions. They have nothing to gain by staging a fake refurbishment if they know right now they want it closed.

    There's another piece of this puzzle that is missing.
    When it comes to Parks and Resorts, a lot of Disney's costs are out of control. If the closure, for refurbishment or permanent, is to reign in operating costs for the [fiscal] year then admitting such may not be wise right now. It would mean admitting that the massive expenses incurred to reopen the attraction and less maintenance intensive were a complete waste at a time when there may be increased scrutiny of the division.

  13. #43

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    Quote Originally Posted by TCadillac View Post
    A year's worth of Nemo Submarine construction updates. No!!!!!!!!
    It's going to be the most excitement this ride has provided since 2005 up until it's opening, yay!

    Just imagine all the rumors that WON'T come true. REAL animatronics? Less projections?! There will be a 0.01% chance of us believing any of that to be true, but it's hope, dammit!

    I am more than a little sad though. My last trip to Disneyland was damn near the eve of the reopening back in 2007, and I'll be arriving on the 7th. Bah!

  14. #44

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    I'm with Mycroft on this one. I imagine they're going into this refurb with a plan for what they want to do, but they can't set a definite timetable until they have the lagoon drained and can fully inspect everything. Besides, BTMR set a precedent in my mind in regards to how they approach long refurbs: with the delays that have occurred as new problems arose, it seems easier to set a vague date than to announce concrete plans.

  15. #45

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    Re: Sub Lagoon closure has reopen timeframe now

    This makes think of way back when I was fairly new to this site and wondered how accurate it was. I took a look at the Al Lutz updates for the entire previous year, point by point making note of each prediction and news item then compared it with what actually happened during the next year (assuming that's when the time frame said it would happen).

    The result? Al ended up being dead-on about 50% of the time. Now, the rest of the time, he could have been wrong, Disney itself could changed it's mind, time frames could have simply been altered or whatever. Not being someone with access to all the information, I have no idea. But it's something to keep in mind.

    50% sounds low. But in the business of theme park rumors. This place really is the best around.
    "If we cut the budget are you going to be the one standing at the exit explaining to guests why the ride they just rode is a piece of crap?" - - John Lasseter

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