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  1. #46

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Bob View Post
    Al Lutz and others have wrote about it extensively, which I can find the articles later when I have time to do so if you wish. But if you want me to produce insider data that we don't have, well I can't, nor can you. What I can provide is the fact that the largest increases in AP pricing history happened for two years in a row.
    Id' be willing to accept basic economic textbooks. Something as fundamental (and observationally counter-intuitive) as "Price increases always discourage purchasing" should be a pretty easy find.

    And if they've raised prices explicitly to chase out APs, why - when for the first time EVER it appears to be working - why for the love of Walt would they not roll out another price increase, cease all marketing for APs and ride the crest of decreased AP attendance? Instead, they've trotted out the locals promotions and amped up the AP advertising including a significant effort to get daytrippers to convert to AP. Which is a really poor way to go about getting rid of APs.

    Every step Disney takes with the AP market shows signs of testing for a ceiling, not an attempt to disengage from the market.
    Woo! Spring is coming!

  2. #47

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by BogLurch View Post
    Please provide any reputable source - economic texts, actual market analysis, anything reputable - that shows the only reason to raise prices is to discourage purchasing.
    I side with Uncle Bob. Raising prices can be done to increase profits, but raising the prices of AP's so dramatically and disproportionately compared to regular admission tickets shows that there is a secondary motive behind it. The extent they did it shows that they are certainly trying to find a new equilibrium point between supply and demand.

  3. #48

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by sleepyjeff View Post
    You misunderstood me. People have to go collect those fast passes and unless they can fly they must use the walkways to do so.

    Please address my question..........does fast pass reduce a guests wait time in the park or does it not. If it does, where do the guests spend that extra time and if it does not why do we even have FP?
    See the second part about re-distribution of people to lesser used or higher capacity attractions.

  4. #49

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor View Post
    I side with Uncle Bob. Raising prices can be done to increase profits, but raising the prices of AP's so dramatically and disproportionately compared to regular admission tickets shows that there is a secondary motive behind it. The extent they did it shows that they are certainly trying to find a new equilibrium point between supply and demand.
    The existence and promotion of the payment plans undercuts this, though. If it were intended to chase out lower priced players, they wouldn't implement payment plans that obscure the impact of the total cost.
    Woo! Spring is coming!

  5. #50

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by BogLurch View Post
    Id' be willing to accept basic economic textbooks. Something as fundamental (and observationally counter-intuitive) as "Price increases always discourage purchasing" should be a pretty easy find.

    And if they've raised prices explicitly to chase out APs, why - when for the first time EVER it appears to be working - why for the love of Walt would they not roll out another price increase, cease all marketing for APs and ride the crest of decreased AP attendance? Instead, they've trotted out the locals promotions and amped up the AP advertising again. Which is a really poor way to go about getting rid of APs.

    Every step Disney takes with the AP market shows signs of testing for a ceiling, not an attempt to disengage from the market.
    I never said they wanted to eliminate the AP, just reduce the numbers to a more controllable level. The marketing they do is pretty limited actually. I live in California and I can't recall seeing an AP specific ad in years. Plus, if you don't market while raising prices it would be easy to push too far and lose too many customers.
    The Mickey audience is not made up of people; it has no racial, national, political, religious or social differences or affiliations; the Mickey audience is made up of parts of people, of that deathless, precious, ageless, absolutely primitive remnant of something in every world-wracked human being which makes us play with children’s toys and laugh without self-consciousness at silly things, and sing in bathtubs, and dream and believe that our babies are uniquely beautiful. You know…the Mickey in us.
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  6. #51

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by BogLurch View Post
    This is where I wish I had access to the data Disneyland generates. Like I said, I don't believe it generates additional actual crowding - but my suspicion is that those who are using the FP are spending the time they'd normally be in line commuting from place to place on the streets, using other park services they'd normally be in line rather than using etc.

    Disneyworld's larger streets make this less of an issue, but with DL's rather claustrophobic choke points that also happen to be some of the higher concentrations of guests to begin with it makes the issue (IMO) more problematic.
    Sure, but again they end up in queues and on other attractions. If one could get unlimited FP's so that they never had to wait in line, I might bite and concede that these extra trips add up, but given the redistribution of guests and the mathematics of it, it just doesn't seem to add up.

  7. #52

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by sleepyjeff View Post
    You misunderstood me. People have to go collect those fast passes and unless they can fly they must use the walkways to do so.

    Please address my question..........does fast pass reduce a guests wait time in the park or does it not. If it does, where do the guests spend that extra time and if it does not why do we even have FP?
    It depends a lot on what counts as "waiting."
    If you're sitting in a restaurant, are you "waiting" for your FastPass return time?
    If you go back to your hotel for a nap, are you "waiting" for your FastPass return time?
    If you go shopping, are you "waiting" for your FastPass return time?
    If you're in a different attraction's queue or on said attraction, are you "waiting" for your FastPass return time?
    If you're Sitting. On. A. Park. Bench. (Aqualung!), and it is something you already planned to do, are you "waiting" for your FastPass return time?

    We can use another metric instead: average time spent waiting in an attraction queue divided by number of attractions experienced.
    With the FP system existing and your using it, maybe you (general you, not specific you) waited 4 hours but experienced 12 attractions. So, 20 minutes of waiting per attraction experienced.
    Without the FP system (ceteris paribus), maybe you'd wait 4 hours but experience only 8 attractions. So, 30 minutes of waiting per attraction experienced.
    However, with the FP system existing but not using it at all, maybe you waited 4 hours but experienced 6 attractions. so, 40 minutes of waiting per attraction experienced.

    No one really knows. I just like numbers.
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  8. #53

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by BogLurch View Post
    Id' be willing to accept basic economic textbooks. Something as fundamental (and observationally counter-intuitive) as "Price increases always discourage purchasing" should be a pretty easy find.

    And if they've raised prices explicitly to chase out APs, why - when for the first time EVER it appears to be working - why for the love of Walt would they not roll out another price increase, cease all marketing for APs and ride the crest of decreased AP attendance? Instead, they've trotted out the locals promotions and amped up the AP advertising including a significant effort to get daytrippers to convert to AP. Which is a really poor way to go about getting rid of APs.

    Every step Disney takes with the AP market shows signs of testing for a ceiling, not an attempt to disengage from the market.
    Here you go...
    Economics Basics: Supply and Demand | Investopedia

    A. The Law of Demand
    The law of demand states that, if all other factors remain equal, the higher the price of a good, the less people will demand that good.
    In other words, the higher the price, the lower the quantity demanded. The amount of a good that buyers purchase at a higher price is less because as the price of a good goes up, so does the opportunity cost of buying that good. As a result, people will naturally avoid buying a product that will force them to forgo the consumption of something else they value more. The chart below shows that the curve is a downward slope.

    A, B and C are points on the demand curve. Each point on the curve reflects a direct correlation between quantity demanded (Q) and price (P). So, at point A, the quantity demanded will be Q1 and the price will be P1, and so on. The demand relationship curve illustrates the negative relationship between price and quantity demanded. The higher the price of a good the lower the quantity demanded (A), and the lower the price, the more the good will be in demand (C).
    The Mickey audience is not made up of people; it has no racial, national, political, religious or social differences or affiliations; the Mickey audience is made up of parts of people, of that deathless, precious, ageless, absolutely primitive remnant of something in every world-wracked human being which makes us play with children’s toys and laugh without self-consciousness at silly things, and sing in bathtubs, and dream and believe that our babies are uniquely beautiful. You know…the Mickey in us.
    -Walt Disney

  9. #54

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by BogLurch View Post
    The existence and promotion of the payment plans undercuts this, though. If it were intended to chase out lower priced players, they wouldn't implement payment plans that obscure the impact of the total cost.
    All the Payment Plans do is make the higher prices more accessible to varied guest types. At the end of the day though, raising the prices on the plans makes the monthly payments go up on the plans that offer it. Its a win-win for Disney. They get more money out of the AP plan because they can, and the higher prices (payment plan or not) reduce the demand. One can conclude that the desired AP numbers at the moment are somewhere higher than they would get without the payment plan, but somewhere lower than where it would be at the old prices with the payment plan. The plan also makes it marketable, and allows Disney to seem less like the resort caters to the rich.

  10. #55

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor View Post
    See the second part about re-distribution of people to lesser used or higher capacity attractions.
    1) Making those attractions more crowded than they would otherwise be.

    2) They still need to use walkways to get to those lesser used and higher capacity attractions. (and if you come back saying "but they'd eventually walk there anyway" I'd have to come back and say "so, what's the point of fast pass again?)
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  11. #56

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Bob View Post
    I never said they wanted to eliminate the AP, just reduce the numbers to a more controllable level. The marketing they do is pretty limited actually. I live in California and I can't recall seeing an AP specific ad in years. Plus, if you don't market while raising prices it would be easy to push too far and lose too many customers.
    I do see marketing from Disneyland. I see email blasts designed to bring me back to renew my years-expired AP around one every week or so, more around major attendance periods. I receive mailers touting APs, both forwarded from my previous address where I lived when I had one and my current address, marketing to let me know I can get a year of magic (or whatever the tagline they're using now, I just toss them). I see signage frequently posted at Downtown Disney when I go there socially, imploring me to upgrade to an AP TODAY! (in the park-centric areas) or reminding me about it to a lesser extent outside those areas. I hear spiels reminding me that I can upgrade my ticket to an AP on the tram. I honestly can't tell you from personal experience what they're doing on TV or radio, the only Disney commercials I see are on Hulu and are either "Grampa's Meds Wear Off and He Shows His Disney Side" or "Isnt' MyMagic+ Awesome" generic Disneypark ads, though I've been told that there's another radio push for APs in the local market.

    The advertising is out there. Disney is trying - explicitly - to create more APs.
    Woo! Spring is coming!

  12. #57

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by BogLurch View Post
    Please provide any reputable source - economic texts, actual market analysis, anything reputable - that shows the only reason to raise prices is to discourage purchasing.
    If you replace "reason" with "consequence," then a simple downward-sloping demand curve should do the trick.
    The main reason to change prices, up OR down, is to generate more revenue (without a proportionate increase in costs). This depends heavily (solely?) on the elasticity of the product.
    So, if Disney thinks increasing the prices will increase revenue, then it thinks, prior to deciding to increase the prices, the demand for the product is "price-inelastic."

    Big problem with applying simple microeconomics on a product like an AP is that a price increase encourages more usage ("get my money's worth!"), which likely increases the costs of running the parks (imagine 1,000,000 guests deciding to go to the parks one more time per year). So, there you have it.

    EDIT: just saw Uncle Bog Lurch (??) post on the Demand Curve. Very nice. But you are showing the consequence of raising prices, not the reason. Reason is to make more money. If lowering the number of products sold results in more money made, so be it.
    So, if a 20% price increase results in a 10% loss in AP's sold, then revenue has increased 1.2*0.9- 1 = an 8% increase in revenue.

    And even then, it's not the only ticket media available, so it's a lot more comlpicated. There's also all that stuff inside the park that is available for sale.
    Last edited by sediment; 02-26-2014 at 02:55 PM.
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  13. #58

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    As I stated earlier, I get my "buy an AP" postcards from some group in Florida. Maybe "they" are just trying to ruin DL to make WDW look good?
    "Here You Leave the World of California Today and Enter the World of, um, er, California Today."

  14. #59

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    My suggestions:

    1. Eliminating fastpass wouldn't change the number of people in the park, but it should theoretically make the lines shorter.

    2. I do think they need to build several more people-eating attractions, and a People Mover 2.0 would be a good start.

    3. I also like the fact that they are going to be getting rid of the Astro Orbiter in order to open up the entrance to Tomorrowland. As much as I love all of the foliage in Adventureland, they probably need to get rid of all of the planters in the middle of the road to try and open that up a bit as well.

    4. I absolutely agree that any entertainment that causes something else to close down should be eliminated, with the exception of closing Toontown during the regular Fantasy in the Sky fireworks. Fantasmic can remain open since the river vehicles always closed at dusk in the past anyway, but they should not allow anyone to line up more than an hour prior to showtime.

    5. I do think they should reduce annual passes to just premium in order to try to limit the number of passholders and reduce the days that are overcrowded for no reason other then it's a non-block out day for the lower tier passes.

    6. I'd really hate to see Disneyland become something that the average family can't afford. When I was a kid our family was lower-middle class, and so the only vacation we ever took was our once-a-year trip to Disneyland. So I wouldn't be in favor of raising prices on the regular tickets.

    7. I also think Disney should experiment with lower prices on food inside the parks to see if they can make up the revenue with more people eating there. It seems super common to me to see people walking around with backpacks on eating a sandwich in line for a ride. If they had somewhat normal prices, more people might eat there, and perhaps that would also help unclog the walkways a bit.
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  15. #60

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    Re: Reducing Overcrowding?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor View Post
    All the Payment Plans do is make the higher prices more accessible to varied guest types. At the end of the day though, raising the prices on the plans makes the monthly payments go up on the plans that offer it. Its a win-win for Disney. They get more money out of the AP plan because they can, and the higher prices (payment plan or not) reduce the demand. One can conclude that the desired AP numbers at the moment are somewhere higher than they would get without the payment plan, but somewhere lower than where it would be at the old prices with the payment plan. The plan also makes it marketable, and allows Disney to seem less like the resort caters to the rich.
    There's an entire branch of marketing that I'm only partially versed in that uses things like payment plans, alternate currencies and other distancing mechanisms explicitly to distance the impact of spending, say, $750 on an AP - they're not there to help the already committed customers so much as they are to help push the people on the edge into making a decision because the money feels "less real" - credit cards accomplish roughly the same trick, and there are reams of analysis done on that disconnect and how a CC spender will almost always wind up spending more than a cash spender. There's been a surge of interest in the field with the dawning of the Age of Freemium in gaming, but that's another topic.

    I think the initial segregation of the APs into different classes was very much done for what you suggest - it masks the appeal to higher income brackets by giving restricted access to the lower price brackets - but I'm pretty convinced the payment plan was a distancing mechanism. There are better, less paperwork-intensive ways they use to simply get lower priced admissions through the door in the form of daytrip discounts and such.
    Woo! Spring is coming!

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