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  1. #31

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Bob View Post
    But in the end, I don't think they're going to be able to generate significantly more hotel nights unless or until they add a strong third gate.
    There in lies the delimma. They can't justify building a third park until the visitor mix changes and they can't change the visitor mix until a third park is built.

    If the answer is that you have to spend 2 to 3 billion on a viable third gate, how likely are they to pursue it? Earning guests in California is expensive. The parks in Florida had greater gains for less investment.

    There is also a good chance that they are starting to investigate the idea that California will never be another WDW (and truthfully why would the US need two Disney resorts?) and they may just give up investing in DL entirely and let the APs keep driving attendance.

    Interestingly since there hasn't been much in the way of major announcements it seems that Iger is willing to just kick the xan down the road and let his replacement figure it out.

  2. #32

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrLiver View Post

    There is also a good chance that they are starting to investigate the idea that California will never be another WDW (and truthfully why would the US need two Disney resorts?)
    You mean, why do they have two Disney resorts in the US, don't you? Actually, I think there's technically three: Disneyland Resort, Walt Disney World, and Aulani. I won't count the cruise ships. They need them, or at least want them because there is a demand for them, and they consistently make money?

  3. #33

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Don't forget that Disneyland's numbers went down in 2012. So while they went up 1.5% from last year, they are only up something like 0.3% from 2011 (did I do the math right?)

    Similarly, DCA is up 32% or so from pre-Carsland 2011. That's really good, and Disney should be commended.

    This site frustrated me a bit though. I remember reading in an article in 2012 that attendance could be around 10 million (even 11 million) for that year! More recently, we heard about DCA finally hitting 10 million in 2013. Using AECOM's numbers, both estimates were waaay off. I suppose 10 million this year wouldn't have happened: the 2012-2013 increase would have had to have been 28% to get those numbers. That would've been even bigger than the 2011-2012 increase of 22%.

    I hope someone on this site would explain how miceage gets their numbers, and whether they are at all related to how AECOM gets theirs. I understand that Disney measures by first click and this site reports on that, but then they must understand our confusion when the only public information seem so... off. Does Disney's internal counting measurements show DCA at 10 million? Then does that mean Disney's calculation of Disneyland Park's attendance is lower than what AECOM reports? How does WDW's numbers compare according to Disney?

  4. #34

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    @ MrLiver While you make some really good points I take issue with the statement that the parks in Florida had greater gains for less investment since it's obvious that Disney has invested way more in Florida over the years than they have in California. If the numbers are flat there's a reason. If they just give up investing in DLR how long do you think those AP's will keep up the numbers if there's already in decline? Though I don't know how are the numbers could be flat when the park seems more crowded than ever. Putting all their energy into WDW while letting DLR stagnate would be a foolish strategy. And in some ways that's what they've done. Besides fixing something they should have been really ashamed of in the first place (DCA 1.0) what have they really done in the last 10 years? Personally I think in terms of the US market that there's more potential for long-term growth in California than Florida.

    Disney California should not, could not be and frankly I wouldn't want it to be another WDW. But could the US support more of a Disney presence on the West Coast? Absolutely. Why not? It could easily support a 3rd gate and more hotels. California's population is close to 40 million and we have the 7th or 8th largest economy in the world. The United States has the 3rd largest population in the world, after China and India, and we are the only major industrialized nation whose population is growing. And while we've seen a decline since 07 we still have the world's largest single national economy.

    So-called industry experts might disagree but those 'industry experts' are no better than dart-throwing chimps. They're in the business of flattering the prejudices of their audience. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they don't, but they never advertise the latter.

    The Walt Disney Company has had some great successes and some spectacular failures. And of course, if you throw enough money at something you can even make your mistakes look like successes. By all accounts Disneyland is a success. Why would they jeopardize this by not making significant investment here? And as much as some would like Disneyland to never change (or better yet revert to the park of their childhood) it can never remain static and expect to keep the numbers up. I think once Shanghai is up and running, if they are smart, they'd turn their attention to the California property. But I think examining Tokyo Disneyland Resort would be more helpful than WDW in determining the best possible future for Disneyland Resort.

  5. #35

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    I agree with Eddie Davidson. I would not want Disneyland to become another WDW, not in a million years. Disneyland is Disneyland, and I wouldn't want the smaller, more classic/homier feeling park turned into 5 parks where you would have to spend a fortune to enjoy (unless you are an AP)

  6. #36

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by 9oldmen View Post
    You mean, why do they have two Disney resorts in the US, don't you? Actually, I thinkable there's technically three: Disneyland Resort, Walt Disney World, and Aulani. I won't count the cruise ships. They need them, or at least want them because there is a demand for them, and they consistently make money?
    Disneyland isn't really a resort. Not even in the same league as Walt Disney World. Consider all the water parks, golf courses and other side experiences that WDW has over DLR and you see how hard (if not impossible) it would be to have DLR compete as a resort.

    How many staterooms are there on the cruise ships compared to hotel rooms at DLR? There is 2400 rooms at DLR if I remember right. How can there be more demand for cruises than a vacation to DLR?

    In a world that is becoming much smaller, what does DLR have to offer over WDW? How would they compete if they were in the same state or even the same county?

  7. #37

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrLiver View Post
    How many staterooms are there on the cruise ships compared to hotel rooms at DLR? There is 2400 rooms at DLR if I remember right. How can there be more demand for cruises than a vacation to DLR?
    There isn't but you can hardly book a hotel down the street from a cruise ship or drive in for a day.

  8. #38

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by Streamliner View Post
    Don't forget that Disneyland's numbers went down in 2012. So while they went up 1.5% from last year, they are only up something like 0.3% from 2011 (did I do the math right?)

    Similarly, DCA is up 32% or so from pre-Carsland 2011. That's really good, and Disney should be commended.

    This site frustrated me a bit though. I remember reading in an article in 2012 that attendance could be around 10 million (even 11 million) for that year! More recently, we heard about DCA finally hitting 10 million in 2013. Using AECOM's numbers, both estimates were waaay off. I suppose 10 million this year wouldn't have happened: the 2012-2013 increase would have had to have been 28% to get those numbers. That would've been even bigger than the 2011-2012 increase of 22%.

    I hope someone on this site would explain how miceage gets their numbers, and whether they are at all related to how AECOM gets theirs. I understand that Disney measures by first click and this site reports on that, but then they must understand our confusion when the only public information seem so... off. Does Disney's internal counting measurements show DCA at 10 million? Then does that mean Disney's calculation of Disneyland Park's attendance is lower than what AECOM reports? How does WDW's numbers compare according to Disney?
    I don't really know why the discrepancy is, if Miceage just got bad info or if those are Disney's real numbers which don't match AECOM's. But the important things are the trend lines, because AECOM's numbers, however they are calculated, do show trends based on using a similar methodology from year to year.
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  9. #39

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrLiver View Post
    Disneyland isn't really a resort. Not even in the same league as Walt Disney World. Consider all the water parks, golf courses and other side experiences that WDW has over DLR and you see how hard (if not impossible) it would be to have DLR compete as a resort.
    You're right, Disneyland isn't a resort, it's a theme park. However, Disneyland Resort is, indeed a resort. You're throwing two different arguments out there: 1) Disneyland [Resort] isn't a resort, and 2) Disneyland Resort isn't Walt Disney World.

    Number two is a "no duh" statement- DLR is not and will never be WDW. But neither is TDR or DLP. Does that mean they're not resorts? Of course not. They're just smaller resorts. And yes, by definition (look it up), DLR is indeed a resort. Three hotels, two theme parks, and a shopping district does indeed make it such.

  10. #40

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrLiver View Post
    Disneyland isn't really a resort. Not even in the same league as Walt Disney World. Consider all the water parks, golf courses and other side experiences that WDW has over DLR and you see how hard (if not impossible) it would be to have DLR compete as a resort.

    How many staterooms are there on the cruise ships compared to hotel rooms at DLR? There is 2400 rooms at DLR if I remember right. How can there be more demand for cruises than a vacation to DLR?

    In a world that is becoming much smaller, what does DLR have to offer over WDW? How would they compete if they were in the same state or even the same county?
    Flying is only going to get more expensive, especially if they add more carbon taxes, which I see as inevitable. I think that the amount of people who can drive from SF and SD alone could support a true resort in Anaheim. Plus, the west in general, especially western Arizona, which again is drivable, is growing and most of the east coast states are shrinking. Mexico's middle class is growing rapidly, western Canada and Australia and Hawaii can still be further taped. And if DLR offered more that was unique I think it would start getting more European tourists already here and more Asian tourists as well. Plus, if DLR has Marvel, a big group of East Coasters will consider it for the first time.
    The Mickey audience is not made up of people; it has no racial, national, political, religious or social differences or affiliations; the Mickey audience is made up of parts of people, of that deathless, precious, ageless, absolutely primitive remnant of something in every world-wracked human being which makes us play with children’s toys and laugh without self-consciousness at silly things, and sing in bathtubs, and dream and believe that our babies are uniquely beautiful. You know…the Mickey in us.
    -Walt Disney

  11. #41

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Bob View Post
    I don't really know why the discrepancy is, if Miceage just got bad info or if those are Disney's real numbers which don't match AECOM's. But the important things are the trend lines, because AECOM's numbers, however they are calculated, do show trends based on using a similar methodology from year to year.

    I'm thinking that AECOM is likely accurate with the overall resort attendance and less accurate with how the attendance is allocated between the individual parks. I'm not even sure how they would estimate the number of people heading to DL vs DCA on any given day. They don't have people standing outside the gates with a clicker counting heads, do they?

  12. #42

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Davidson View Post
    Disney California should not, could not be and frankly I wouldn't want it to be another WDW. But could the US support more of a Disney presence on the West Coast? Absolutely.
    We can't have it both ways. We can't have a DLR that caters mostly to discounted locals, to the point of over crowding... And expect a resort expansion that is built off a huge tourist demographic. Walt Disney World has 25000 hotel rooms compared to the 2500 that Disneyland has. By the strong percentage of APs we also know that the gate a is so on is far less per person than in Florida. When you throw in all the ancillaries such as the golf courses, race track, water parks and what not, how is it unreasonable to conclude that DLR makes about 1/10th of what WDW does?

    The gap between DL and WDW has always been massive. Building DCA was an attempt to close the gap and make more money. When it didn't work, it was always a question of whether it was the park or the market. Now after another billion, it is still not clear if it is the park or the market. How long can Disney keep investing in what is essentially an experiment? They have to be smart with their money, and if they can make more money building cruise ships and DVCs and New Fantasylands, than building a seventh domestic Disney park, than that is what they will do.

    If Disney were happy with the results from DCAs expansion, they would have kept pressing harder. They would have announced a new hotel by now and a project for Disneyland. They have grown incredibly soft toward Anaheim since just before Cars land opened and there has to be a reason why.

    As for stagnation, they should know quite well by now that they can let the parks stagnate for quite a long time without problem. With a minimal amount of investment (characters, promotions, parades and merchandise sales), they can maintain the AP level crowds for a very very long while.

    If the options are, spend next to nothing and make some money off the APs, or spend another billion and HOPE that some more tourists show up, which are they more likely to do?

  13. #43

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by sheetz View Post
    I'm not even sure how they would estimate the number of people heading to DL vs DCA on any given day. They don't have people standing outside the gates with a clicker counting heads, do they?
    I don't know if this is how they do it, bit it doesn't seem like it would be that hard to estimate a person per square foot calculation for each queue, show, restaurant and attraction and then estimate the overall attendance from that.

    Someone like MouseWait would have a database of wait times that could be used to provide an accurate picture of how many people are in the park. They are practically sitting on a gold mine of data.

    Of course they could do that. Their report says they get a lot of their info from the operators themselves so maybe Disney just tell a them. It would be easier just to ask...

  14. #44

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    I've seen people on here complain or wonder about why DCA has shorter hours than Disneyland and regardless of how you feel about the improvements and additions to DCA over the past several years.. even with that billion dollar investment, after the hype of the new openings has died down, DCA has dropped again to getting half the attendance of Disneyland. I think the proof is in the numbers that DCA is still a sub-par park compared to Disneyland.. and most other Disney parks as well. I know for me, if they had built TDS exactly as it is, in place of DCA, it would definitely be way more popular! I'm more than positive, from all I've seen and heard about TDS, that there would probably be days that I would go to the DLR and spend the whole day at TDS, or at least most of it. Wheras now I maybe spend a few hours at DCA.. which allows me to do pretty much everything the park has to offer, then I leave to DL where I spend the rest of the day and usually don't get to even half of what DL has to offer...

    I also find it very interesting that even with the HUGE number of visitors that WDW gets every year, especially Magic Kingdom... that Disneyland is only behind Magic Kingdom by a couple million visitors a year. Which yes, a couple million is a lot.. but considering that WDW as a whole gets over 52 Million visitors every year on average, you'd think MK's numbers would be much bigger than DL, but comparatively it's not really that much further ahead... Guess it just shows another reason why Disneyland is the best! ;-)
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  15. #45

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    Re: Disneyland slowing down in attendance. DCA is number 10.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrLiver View Post
    I don't know if this is how they do it, bit it doesn't seem like it would be that hard to estimate a person per square foot calculation for each queue, show, restaurant and attraction and then estimate the overall attendance from that.
    I really doubt it's anywhere near that sophisticated.

    Of course they could do that. Their report says they get a lot of their info from the operators themselves so maybe Disney just tell a them. It would be easier just to ask...
    Some parks, especially foreign ones like TDR, HKDL and DLRP, do announce annual attendance figures. Although I believe in the case of Tokyo and Paris they don't break down the attendance by park.

    Also, publicly traded companies like Disney, Comcast/Universal, SeaWorld, Cedar Fair, etc. do announce company-wide attendance changes. So TEA could sort of guestimate resort attendance by looking at things like historical data and local tourism stats.

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