Where are the summer crowds?

[lady3jane]

I've already expressed my theory about SoCal APs and their effect on crowding:

http://www.micechat.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30379

I also think that gas prices and the weather make the situation even more extreme.

[lady3jane]

What were the attendance numbers on the 4th of July, BTW?

[Uzmati]

yeah well now that those low life socal APs are locked out...

[JiminyCricketFan]

I find it interesting that just one month ago attendance was very good for DL. Now gas prices were about what they are right now. I do believe that people have less discretionary money but it is also that the AP's (cheap ones) are blocked. I think they fueled last month's attendance.

So two major causes:

#1 High gas prices keep people close to home for their vacation.

#2 Many of those close to home here in So Cal have So Cal passes that are blocked right now.

It shows the power that AP's have at DL. They have less influence at WDW.

[SCUBAbe]

Lets just report it's crazy crowded and then maybe it will stay nice...

[RobotMirror]

Oddly enough, there are conflicting reports on whether or not gas prices are affecting people's travels:
...
I wonder why similar reports are so divergent? Maybe the gas prices/travel plans are just affecting the student crowd?

It's been reported that gas and fuel costs, as well as travel costs in general, are elastic when it comes to Disneyland. Consider the quote from this link:

"Travel Prices: Travel prices would normally be expected to have a negative affect on theme park attendance. However, all of the price factors showed a positive correlation with attendance. This may simply mean that any negative effect of higher prices is relatively small compared to positive effects from other variables, such as population or the economy.

We chose to continue considering the fuel price and adult ticket price variables. This allowed us to use the regression analysis to evaluate whether they have any impact, once the influence of other variables is taken into account. The exchange rate variable was removed from consideration because it is strongly correlated to economic as well as population factors, which would raise issues of collinearity in the model."

[RobotMirror]

It's not fuel prices or travel costs. In an academic study published at the UCLA Anderson School of Business on theme park business, the authors made the following findings:

"Travel Prices: Travel prices would normally be expected to have a negative affect on theme park attendance. However, all of the price factors showed a positive correlation with attendance. This may simply mean that any negative effect of higher prices is relatively small compared to positive effects from other variables, such as population or the economy.

We chose to continue considering the fuel price and adult ticket price variables. This allowed us to use the regression analysis to evaluate whether they have any impact, once the influence of other variables is taken into account. The exchange rate variable was removed from consideration because it is strongly correlated to economic as well as population factors, which would raise issues of collinearity in the model."

[Malcon10t]

But reports had the 4th (I was there in the morning and evening), plus the 5th thru the 8th also being very light for peak summer crowds, more similar to an off-season day, and nothing like the 6 weeks of Easter Break.

I agree. We were there both times also, and the 4th was considerably lighter than the spring break period. The 5th, we were actually walking on rides without lines in the evening! There was no wait at the HA entrance after Fantasmic! I was really surprised.

[Radiobarry]

People are not coming from Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas, where it is much worse than here heat wise. The economy is slowing down and people are feeling the pinch. The Bilderberg Group had a meeting in Canada in June, where the U.S. economy was discussed. The Bilderberg speculated that foreclosures and unemployment will jump to historic levels this year. The Bilderberg group is an association of the global billionaires, former heads of state and other power brokers.

I think I have now seen it all, MiceChat-wise anyway...with the mention of the Bildebergs in a thread about why Disneyland attendance seems to be less than anticipated.

I've just gotta figure that the Tri-Lateral Commission and the international banking conspiracy's got to be playing a part in this...are the Rockefellers still controlling all the world's money in a bank in the Swiss Alps...

--Barry

[misterp102778]

umm why ask. do you like feeling like a cow and being way too close to a complete stranger. i say enjoy it and dont go telling everybody.

[Flint]

Since I'm no longer Califanicafornian anymore, what has the weather been like? Hard numbers, not "it's been hot!"

[Austinnightwolf]

I think I have now seen it all, MiceChat-wise anyway...with the mention of the Bildebergs in a thread about why Disneyland attendance seems to be less than anticipated.

I've just gotta figure that the Tri-Lateral Commission and the international banking conspiracy's got to be playing a part in this...are the Rockefellers still controlling all the world's money in a bank in the Swiss Alps...

--Barry

That study by the way was done by the theme park industry and was not impartial, who knows what they were trying to justify, we do not know who funded these people or why they did that study. We will know in a few weeks what the travel industry will be like for the rest of the summer. Yes the Bilderberg is truely speculating on the economic collapse, the BBC did a detailed expose on them and their meeting in Canada last month. The BBC leaked the agenda which they obtained at the meeting. If you have any type of adjustable loan rate, you are in trouble, I had to refinance my student loans to avoid a severe price increase. People will lose their homes this year, it is starting to happen in Anaheim now, my neighbor's A.R.M. went up to a point where she can't afford the payments, and now she can't sell the place, so she is on the path to foreclosure. I don't know where La Conchita is, but it sounds like some type of shell like insect you would find in your sink, but I digress. I am a graduate student in Orange County, going into a PhD. program next year. Please read the BBC stories which were circulated in Brittan before you laugh at me. But I somehow doubt the BBC reaches La Conchita.

[Cousin Orville]

Here's another angle. Since DL has sold so many AP's, the blockout days of summer have begun to have an effect. They have sold almost a million AP's and the average number of visits per pass is something like 10, the blockout days will have an effect, meaning 10 of the 14 million guests a year are APs...they need the tourists during summer for sure.

[RobotMirror]

Yes, Cousin Orville - this was the "annual pass effect" I described earlier. I think you're onto something here.

[Austinnightwolf]

The So Cal a/p's with the cheap passes are one aspect why it is slow now, but I think the economy has more to do with it. Look at the data being released from Six Flags nationwide and see what Sea World has been up to, the trend has shown a decline all this year. If someone wants to research all the numbers from Sea World, Universal, Cedar Park and Six Flags, I predict for y.t.d 2006, the numbers will all be down. I read a very sad story last night about Six Flags New Orleans. Six Flags spent 25 million trying to improve a failed theme park called Jazzland which opened in 2000. After the hurricane hit, Six Flags decided to scrap the place and call it quits. Well I think the following picture pretty much summarizes the non Disney theme park industry right now, all that water is sewage water by the way: