5/27: A Whole New World

[RandySavage]

I am a one American who would jump at the opportunity to visit Dubai should the opportunity arise. I'm sure tens of thousands of Americans visit Arab countries every year without incident. I bet if your researched the stats, you'd find that the odds of an American (business or tourist) visitor getting attacked/kidnapped by a radical Islamic group in a country like Dubai are probably far less than getting murdered on the streets of Philadelphia, New York or DC.

And, WDW1974, some Israeli firms do do business in Dubai (albeit quietly). If you can, you should try breaking out of the culture of fear in which you live, I think you'll find it liberating. The rich gulf states (UAE, Quatar) have been the first to liberalize in many ways - not at George W. Bush's and the U.S. Army's behest, but because the forces of the free market are forcing them to open up to foreign customs.

[WDW1974]

I am not ignorant and I am not anti-Arab. I simply read.

I'm not blown away by Dubai's glass towers, so that I don't pay attention to the society in the background.

Anyone who wants to go there ... more power to you. Enjoy.

When they start treating women and other religions in a more western way ... when women are no longer second-class citizens in the eyes of the law ... when they stop charging teen-aged gang rape victims with crimes because no Muslim could possibly engage in gay sex let alone rape ... well, then maybe I'll change my opinions.

Frankly, I think a lot of people are simply blinded by what they want to see (not unlike the political situation in this country since 2000).

Anyone wants to go to Dubai, I say more power to you ... Bush loves 'em there so they must be good peeps.

[rjsomeone]

Kevin, haven't written in awhile, so hey! Your email keeps coming back undeliverable, so the is next best.

Of course all the ballyhoo is impressive. The Seaworld plans alone outreach anything that Florida has to offer. Two things though you failed to mention: for six months of the year, daytime temperatures in the UEA can reach – sounds impossible – 130 degrees! My wife and I have always purchased only seasonal passes at WDW for just that reason, Florida on a summer day can reach temperatures of, gracious, 95, so we steer clear. Can you even begin to imagine a theme park at 130, AC notwithstanding? It is something that Dubai, the city not the land, is already dealing with. The post fossil fuel world will bite them in the behind. Disney may want to go boutique in Dubai and not spend, for instance, the one billion or more that Busch has designated.

Steering clear may indeed be the answer.

Bigger than that on the future horizon is the fresh water shortage that this desert region already experiences. Desalination is an expensive venture. Analysts, probably those same analysts who advise Disney to divest, are already acknowledging the imminent downfall of Dubai on an Atlantis-like scale. Dubai holds a mirror to the success of Japan in the 1980s. Japan, like the US before it, like Britain before that, took its success and affluence as the world’s supplier of quality electronics and automobiles and did what we all do with a pocket full of cash: they spent it. They bought Pebble Beach and that bastion of American capitalism Rockefeller Center. Until the bottom caved in and the investors retreated, selling 30 Rock and its surroundings to Goldman Sachs and Tishman Speyer at a loss.

Sometimes it’s a good idea to sit back and wait. Calico Ghost Town comes to mind. What will become of Dubai in the post oil world? It will still be 130.
It's also important to mention the current economic climate of the UAE. 2007 saw inflation for the second year in a row of over 9%. Oil money is a powerful resource, yet their runaway inflation is shedding a ray of light on the real world that Dubai thought it could avoid. According to Dylan Bowman at Reuters,“If inflation levels do not drop there is the danger that soaring cost of living will deter workers from living in the Gulf region, which could damage the local economies.” Duh, that sounds simplistic to me. Nonetheless, according to arabianbusiness.com, Dubai office rentals have increased by 30% in the past year (soaring past Manhattan and making the average office space $360,000 per year), residence rentals have increased by 20% and, most detrimental to the entertainment industry, hotel room rates have nearly doubled in the past 18 months (Las Vegas and WDW have made it a point to undervalue rooms). My point here is that it’s not as peachy rosy as marketing over in paradise would have us believe. From an economic standpoint, it looks as if Dubai itself is a “boutique” destination for the wealthy and that is not what was initially planned.
Traffic is another great concern. One reporter stated that it in Dubai it takes a half an hour to drive twenty minutes. The average trip from the airport to Dubai City can exceed 120 minutes. Like any developing city there are an equal number of problems to solve as there are abundances of positives. You’re article would be stronger if it did not imply that Dubai’s ventures were infallible. Several years ago, when all the hubbub began, it seemed as if the ideology and the means for success were Teflon coated. Today only Mumbai (Bombay) exceeds Dubai as the most expensive city in the world. I don’t think it looks so bad for Disney.
Rick.

[KevinYee]

Rick, thanks for the thoughtful contribution (as I thank everyone in this thread). Just to pick up on your notion of my email - I didn't realize it was broken. I do still get emails from some folks. kevin@miceage.com, right?

[flynnibus]

Originally Posted by rjsomeone

The Seaworld plans alone outreach anything that Florida has to offer. Two things though you failed to mention: for six months of the year, daytime temperatures in the UEA can reach – sounds impossible – 130 degrees!

The monthly average temperature in the Summer is higher in Vegas then it is Dubai. Comparison

Dubai does not get as cool in the Winter, but Vegas is just as hot in the Summer.

And not to beat a dead horse.. but Orlando Heat is way different then Desert heat. Desert is way more comfortable - but you do have to drink like crazy. You do not realize how dehydrated you can get.

[rjsomeone]

Actually I'll have to differ. Vegas tops out at about 115 (like that makes a difference) and proved that outdoor amusement parks (MGM) would fail. So that's my point exactly. It's too hot in Vegas and if you check average temps you'll notice that Dubai well exceeds Nevada, not by a mean average (which is skewed by Vegas's cold winters) but based on extremes. The point though is moot - it's too hot.

Check out as well the lack of climate efficiency in the stylized buildings of Dubai and Dubailand specifically. All over the Arabic news sites. When Dubailand celebrates 50 years of magic, there will be no oil - and that's the real point. Vegas, if you recall, is powered by a river.

[flynnibus]

Originally Posted by rjsomeone

Actually I'll have to differ. Vegas tops out at about 115 (like that makes a difference) and proved that outdoor amusement parks (MGM) would fail.

A correlation completely unfounded. The heat did not cause the MGM to kill its theme park.

Originally Posted by rjsomeone

So that's my point exactly. It's too hot in Vegas and if you check average temps you'll notice that Dubai well exceeds Nevada, not by a mean average (which is skewed by Vegas's cold winters) but based on extremes. The point though is moot - it's too hot.

The very link I provided gave a month by month average. What other facts do you need?
Here's another for you http://www.clubairtravel.co.uk/dubai/climate_dubai.asp

I've seen references that claim up to 45C highs.. that's only 113 F. That's pretty common in the desert SW. And that's at the peak. And guess what - just like Orlando (and California) people don't gravitate to the extremes, they enjoy the rest of the seasons. People avoid the hot/sticky in Orlando, and avoid the Cold in Anaheim.

With all this 'too hot' - why is it tourism still survives in these climates? By this logic - no one should goto Palm Springs, the Grand Canyon, Eygpt, etc - yet they do! Bewildering...

Originally Posted by rjsomeone

When Dubailand celebrates 50 years of magic, there will be no oil - and that's the real point. Vegas, if you recall, is powered by a river.

Nevada only gets 23% of Hoover Dam's power. The largest source of power in Nevada? COAL! Hoover Dam is not responsible for the start, nor boom of Vegas.

There has never been oil in most of the largest cities in the world - yet they all sustain themselves.

What powers Dubai? TRADE! The same reason the middle east has been important for over a thousand years - it sits between Europe and S/E Asia.

Oil represents less then 5% of Dubai's GDP - 5%!!!

[rjsomeone]

"The very link I provided gave a month by month average. What other facts do you need?" ANS: Don't skew the facts. Based on your website and a Las Vegas comparison, recalc your averages and note that Dubai's temps are over 90 degrees for seven months of the year, with an average temperature for those seven months of 100 degrees. The temperature the rest of the year never goes below a daytime avearge of 75. This completely skews the stats in that Vegas, which gets three months of temperatures in the summer that may indeed get to 115, nonetheless averages 91.1 in the hottest month (July, cityrating.com) and winter temperatures average 45. You seem to have a math problem, but it doesn't matter, weather is the least of the issues.

Your info is misleading and misses the major point that what makes the area and the coming attractions so appealing is marketing and marketing alone. Dubai is wraught with issues from the weather to skyrocketing inflation, empty office space and hotel room rates that exceed those of Tokyo. Obvsiously Orlando, Anaheim and Las Vegas suffer from similar or alternate afflictions, but keep in mind that when each of these was in its infancy, they were not contained within the 2nd most expensive city in the world. We'll see if Dubai's marketing can attract more than merely the wealthiest of Europeans and Asians. This is not a family friendly destination, the GDP notwithstanding.

[vfire]

It is burning hot in Dubai in the summer, so the city basically shuts down then. It simply empties out with even the locals leaving. They already know that tourists are not going to come in the summer and plan accordingly. Just as many theme parks around the world close during the winter months because it is too cold, I imagine much of Dubailand will shutter in the summer months, though some of the projects are being built almost entirely indoors to be shielded from the heat.
Also, keep in mind that Dubai today derives less than 10% of its wealth from oil revenue, yet they are still making a lot of money. All they are doing may or may not succeed but the rulers of the UAE, particularly in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, are smarter and more forward thinking than many westerners want to believe.

[flynnibus]

Originally Posted by rjsomeone

ANS: Don't skew the facts. Based on your website and a Las Vegas comparison, recalc your averages and note that Dubai's temps are over 90 degrees for seven months of the year, with an average temperature for those seven months of 100 degrees.

I don't have to recalc anything. The charts are the average high temperature by month for each city. The numbers are black and white.

Originally Posted by rjsomeone

The temperature the rest of the year never goes below a daytime avearge of 75. This completely skews the stats in that Vegas, which gets three months of temperatures in the summer that may indeed get to 115, nonetheless averages 91.1 in the hottest month (July, cityrating.com) and winter temperatures average 45. You seem to have a math problem, but it doesn't matter, weather is the least of the issues.

Excuse me? The Average Temperature in Dec has ZERO impact on what the reported Average Temperature in July is. The averages are FOR THE MONTH. I don't understand why that is hard to grasp.

The comment was the summer highs in Dubai are so blazingly hot. FACT - the highs are even WORSE in Vegas on average. The comment wasn't that its too hot all the time, it was about the high temps can get so high. They are just as bad or worse in Vegas.

Your cityrating site is an 'average temperature', not average HIGH temperature. If you goto Vegas in July and are expecting 91 F.. You are in for a rude awakening.

Originally Posted by rjsomeone

Your info is misleading and misses the major point that what makes the area and the coming attractions so appealing is marketing and marketing alone

It's not misleading at all. It's a direct refute to misconceptions about the area. People think it can't work (even tho it already does - reminds me of the 'no bag line' threads) where you can point out things they already accept which are in fact WORSE.

Yes, its in the Desert - and also on the Sea. People avoid the Desert in the Summer - just like they do in Vegas and just like they avoid the summer mug in Florida.

[rjsomeone]

Once again you miss the point. Weather is indeed an issue, but it's the least important of the bunch. You have truly succumbed to the Dubai marketing blitz. Touche on my misquoting Vegas summer temps. It should have read 102 on average for June (100), July (105) and August (101), still less than Dubai, per your stats with Dubai at 102, 105 and 106. Nonetheless, it's 100 for seven months of the year. I will conceed that the busiest months here in Orlando are also the hot summer months, but again weather is the least of the issues.

I think it pales in comparison to say, mid-east instability.

[flynnibus]

'my stats'.. as if I run weather.com. But I guess weather.com is under the thumb of the UAE and all the terrorists just so they can fool people into coming into their death grip.

I have no skin in this game except for trying to educate what obviously are huge misunderstandings of the rest of the world by so many Americans. If people want to keep on believing these falsehoods and bigoted ideas - I can't stop them, only present the facts and correct them when they are wrong.

[rjsomeone]

Don't slip down into semantics for your argument. When you use statistics they are indeed "yours." Nonetheless, and despite my disagreement, you put up a well thought through fight (we'll have to duke it out over the weather) and I can understand your frustrations and your point. Throughout the day I've been IM-ing a friend through Facebook who lives in Dubai (a misplaced Frenchman). He disagrees with me on nearly everything, as you do. He actually likes the weather, admits its hot, but then states how perfect it is from October through April (kind of sounds like Florida). He states that the debasement of women in Dubai is "well hidden" from the tourists, so that's not an issue that would deter tourists. He says "what instability?" when I question hostilities in the middle east. But what he can't do is argue how expensive it is to live in Dubai, to the point of it possibly chasing him back to France.

For me, I still think it's too hot to watch Shamu, not to mention that if I really was intent on traveling to the middle east, I'd want to see pyramids not killer whales. But when push comes to shove, it will be economics and the region's stability that will dictate success.

[flynnibus]

Yes , Dubai is suffering with extreme inflation currently (double digits) but that is always going to be the case when you flood the market with spending. Ironically a significant part of the problem is their tying their currency valuation to the dollar So its us bringing them down in effect.

Where that is going to hurt them in the long run is the ability to support a sustained, immigrant working class. That is where the government will get a black eye in the long haul - if they just treat expats as disposable or if they do work to make life sustainable for them in the country. But that is a serious tangent. They are already accustomed with a very large expat population, but today they have managed to keep things at a distance so they don't threaten the internal, domestic government with change.

This is the problem you are seeing in western europe now - the build up of the immigrant population is reaching levels where they can actually be quite disruptive, even in legal forms to the 'old school' way of thinking. The clashes you see there are just a sign of way more to come (think the civil rights movement in the US in the 60s).

The controls are way more strict in the UAE today then Europe, but the more 'westernize' they become, the more they expose themselves.

Just look at the child jockey stuff of several years ago - totally a move to appease western ideals.

[vfire]

Dubai's biggest problem will be the high cost of a visit. They have to get the high rate of inflation under control and make a good visit feasible for the middle class. A theme park area on the scale of Dubailand cannot survive with the wealthy alone.
Being in the middle east and stability issues don't really play into the equation. Dubai is actually safer than any large American city, and much safer than Orlando. The UAE is stable with the expat worker population under control. All the Gulf countries have a pretty long history of expat workers and I don't foresee the same problems with them as in Western Europe due to completely different political systems, expectations and cultures.
Like anyplace, Dubai is going to face 'issues' in the future, but the biggest one will be affordability of visit.