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  1. #16

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by MRaymond View Post
    The "Big One" has been looming over Californians as early as I can remember. They were even talking about the Big One in the 60's. We had grown out of cold war "Nuke Drills" and had "Earthquake drills" in school. It's something you live with if you live in CA.

    Just don't let me be on an elevated ride when it happens.
    ^ This.

    I was born in Fresno, raised in Orange County, and we had earthquake drills as far back as I can remember. We don't live in Cailfornia anymore, but we do live in Oregon, which is still in the ring of fire and potentially in an area where a very large, devastating earthquake can take place. However, I do recall even more than twenty years ago how much they talked about "the big one" was going to strike at any moment, and how we have to be prepared for it. I was in the '94 Northridge earthquake, which was relatively large and caused lots of damage. We're still alive, though, and I believe the state has learned a lot from it. The fact of the matter is that there's nothing we can do other than be prepared. We can't predict earthquakes as we can predict the weather, but we can make sure we have what we need and we know where to go if a large quake does strike.

    I mean, we've seen how Disneyland react to natural disasters, so we know that they're at least prepared for the possibility of a moderate to a large quake happening.

  2. #17

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by greenalfonzo View Post
    And we wonder why, Mr. Arizona.
    We had an earthquake maybe 3 Easters ago in AZ.. We are hardly immune. I just prepare for what I can.

  3. #18

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    If you live in CA, you live with the possibility of a major earthquake. In Arizona, you live with the possibility of that (less so than CA but still in range) along with the requisite flash floods and other desert hazards of the Mountain West. If you live in the Central US corridor, you live at risk of massive tornadoes. East Coast? Hurricanes.

    There isn't a "safe" region of perfect climate free from potential, globally devastating natural disaster risk. Even if you could somehow find a place where the earth's crust doesn't move and the climate doesn't affect it, you'd still be at risk from a random comet hitting the planet.
    Credibility is to be sought for. Credulity is not. Sadly the latter is our normal human state.

  4. #19

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Hello, geologist here (although not a seismologist)

    First, you need to understand how geologists forecast earthquakes. The best they can do is to measure the stress (or pressure) that is building around a particular portion of a fault. Based on the stress that is building, they will give a probability of a certain magnitude earthquake occurring in a certain time frame. So, they will say there is a 67% chance of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurring along the southern portion of the San Andreas Fault in the next 30 years. That is about the best they can do, and they adjust these probabilities often. They are not saying that it will definitely occur in the next 30 years, just that there is a high chance that it will. It still may not.

    Right now the southern portion that runs from north of Los Angeles south to the Salton Sea is has the highest probability of causing a major earthquake along the San Andreas. But again, no one knows when it will happen. You can't predict earthquakes (even if the Italian courts say you can - but thats another story).

    Disneyland is pretty far from the San Andreas, but will still get a lot of shaking during a major quake. I would hope that Disneyland has been properly retrofitted and built to withstand a large quake.

    A bigger threat in my opinion than the San Andreas are the many smaller faults that run all over the Los Angeles Basin, especially any thrust faults, as these are hard to find and cause the most damage.

    Earthquakes are just part of living in California. You never know when one will slip.

    Also to the poster about the smaller earthquakes relieving stress on the faults. This is true and not true. The smaller quakes can relieve stress on some portions, but also increase stress on other portions. For instance, small movement of the San Andreas north of Los Angeles has increased the stress on the southern portion.

    Here is a good website that discusses the probabilities of earthquakes in california.

  5. #20

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by Malina View Post
    I have my earthquake kit and emergency supplies, but there's nothing I can do to control what happens or doesn't happen, so I can't spend my time stressing about it. Any place you live you're going to have something to worry about; if you're in the Midwest you've got tornadoes and if you're in the South you've got hurricanes. All you can do is be prepared. There have been one or two earthquakes here that have worried me, but again, I feel that worrying won't change anything.

    They've done a lot to retrofit old buildings and fit new ones to be as seismically strong as possible. I remember reading that the subway system in Los Angeles, for instance, was built to withstand an earthquake of 8+ magnitude. I'm sure they've done the same at Disneyland. We've had tons and tons of small earthquakes since Disneyland opened so they have to think about it and plan accordingly. I will admit that I'd rather not be on something like Space Mountain when there's a quake, though.
    Not too sure about safety in Disneyland. Take iasw for example. They really need to remove the roof and add internal support columns. The design of that show building just isn't designed for a large quake. Wouldn't want to be in there if one hits.

  6. #21

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by mlggator View Post
    Hello, geologist here (although not a seismologist)


    Also to the poster about the smaller earthquakes relieving stress on the faults. This is true and not true. The smaller quakes can relieve stress on some portions, but also increase stress on other portions. For instance, small movement of the San Andreas north of Los Angeles has increased the stress on the southern portion.


    Here is a good website that discusses the probabilities of earthquakes in california.
    Thanks for the clarification about the pressure and the small quakes. We were taught in high school that they relieved them, nothing was ever said about them that they could also cause pressure. Now I know. But is it still ok that I kinda enjoy the small ones?
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  7. #22

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Well, my mom is 91 1/2 years old & has lived in CA all her life and 'the big one' hasn't gotten her yet! I'll take those odds for myself, any day! The first earthquake she remembers is the 1933 Long Beach quake when she was 10.

    I remember the '71 Sylmar as my first 'major' shakeup & there have been many after that. We have relatives in the midwest who freak out about earthquakes here! Really? I tell them that while an earthquake may happen during any given year, but a tornado WILL happen in the midwest!

    To quote a famous philosopher; "What, me worry?"
    "Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain.​"

  8. #23

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1000thHappyHant View Post
    Its very unlikely that "The Big One" would happen soon. The earthquakes that happen on a regular basis in California tend to relieve some pressure on the fault, which makes it less likely.
    It's actually a misconception that smaller quakes prevent larger ones, it's simply untrue. I wouldn't worry about the Big one hitting Disneyland... there are many factors that go into it, the size of the quake, where it was located, the depth...etc. It's hard to "predict" what would happen, but the best thing to do is to reinforce buildings and to be prepared.
    Jeff Wayne







  9. #24

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by BogLurch View Post
    In Arizona, you live with the possibility of that (less so than CA but still in range) .
    Odd timing...
    5.2 Earthquake Shakes Up Arizona and New Mexico - NBC News

  10. #25

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by whoever View Post
    Now that's creepy.
    WALTER ELIAS DISNEY COMMUNITY OF TOMORROW- WEDCOT

  11. #26

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Oh, earthquakes...

    I fear being creamed on the freeway by a semi, but earthquakes? Nah.







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  12. #27

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    I've been at DLR on rides during earthquakes at *both* parks. What are the odds?

    I was at Disneyland on Star Tours for the second large March 28th earthquake of this year. The ride had reopened after the first earthquake an hour before and we didn't feel the quake (ST shakes you more than any earthquake I've been in) but the ride came to an abrupt stop midway through and the guy next to me checked the news on his phone and said "There was another earthquake." They had everything back up within an hour and a half.

    Within the first month of DCA opening I was on the Ferris Wheel during an earthquake, which I also didn't feel, maybe it was while my car was sliding along the rails. I found out about it from the operator when I was let out of the car. Likewise, everything closed but was back up an hour later.

  13. #28

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wedcot View Post
    Now that's creepy.
    Considering that there are an average of nearly 4 magnitude 5 earthquakes somewhere on Earth every single day, not really that creepy. That's a mag 5 quake every 6 hours. (Source: USGS data)

    "The Big One" is a bit of an old myth at this point. Scientists know that faults have upper limits on the strength of quake they are capable of producing and when science talks about "The Big One" they are talking about an approximate magnitude 8 quake. Not apocalyptic blow the top off the richter scale quake. Granted, an 8 is 10 times more powerful than a 7 as the richter scale is a base 10 logarithmic scale, but it's not going to be like the movie 2012 or anything.

    It will be a horrendous earthquake for sure, not trying to downplay that level of destruction than an 8 will cause. But there also isn't any reason to live in fear of it either, because there isn't a thing anyone can do to stop it happening. All fear does is cause worry and doubt and second guessing and paranoia, none of which are constructive emotions. Best advice? Be prepared. Have a 72 hour kit, have food and water storage. Know escape routes in your area. Then, when it does come, or any major quake, you will have the knowledge that you have supplies and will be okay.

    Our revels now are ended. These our actors, As I foretold you, were all spirits and Are melted into air, into thin air: And, like the baseless fabric of this vision, The cloud-capp'd towers, the gorgeous palaces, The solemn temples, the great globe itself, Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve And, like this insubstantial pageant faded, Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff As dreams are made on, and our little life Is rounded with a sleep. mycroft16 on Twitter

  14. #29

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    Quote Originally Posted by mycroft16 View Post
    Considering that there are an average of nearly 4 magnitude 5 earthquakes somewhere on Earth every single day, not really that creepy. That's a mag 5 quake every 6 hours. (Source: USGS data).
    AZ doesn't tend to get many quakes. I've never felt one actually. I was outside during the Easter quake a few years back and didn't feel it, but my friends were in their house about 10 miles north and did feel it (their ceiling fan was swaying afterwards). Is a little creepy given the timing of this thread and somebody quipping that of course I'm not afraid because I live in AZ, not CA.

  15. #30

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    Re: Do you have fear of The Big One?

    I just read somewhere that the Anaheim City Council voted unanimously to outlaw all earthquakes above level 6 within city limits, so I wouldn't worry. Irvine on the other hand...

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