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  1. #1

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    Tropical Storm/Hurricane Dean

    Dean has been upgraded to a Cat 4 hurricane.





    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 192044
    TCPAT4
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
    500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
    JAMAICA...

    AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
    MEXICO.

    AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
    NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
    SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
    SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
    80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
    EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
    BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR
    JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
    HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
    ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
    BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
    TOMORROW.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
    8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
    CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
    OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
    EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
    Last edited by SummerInFL; 08-19-2007 at 02:40 PM.

  2. #2

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    eerily quiet so far this year..........

  3. #3

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Quote Originally Posted by EPCOT View Post
    eerily quiet so far this year..........

    Yeah, keep it that way until I get back from my cruise on Sep 3

    -dave
    "I'm gonna build my own amusement park. But with gambling and hookers!" - Bender
    "You should never underestimate the predictability of stupidity." - Bullet Tooth Tony

  4. #4

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Time to go to Publix and Home Depot!


  5. #5

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Quote Originally Posted by mikeland View Post
    Time to go to Publix and Home Depot!

    To late they are sold out. Now all you can use is cat litter and particle board. :P

  6. #6

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    And now, a word from Bill Nye the Science Guy about Hurricanes...

    Did you know that?...

    Hurricanes rotate in a counter-clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere, and clockwise in the southern hemisphere? Also, the term, "hurricane" is simply a geographical name depending on where the "tropical cyclone" is. Other names include Typhoons, Tropical Storms, Cyclonic Storms, and Tropical Depressions.

    A tropical cyclone's primary energy source is the release of the heat of condensation from water vapor condensing at high altitudes, with solar heating being the initial source for evaporation. Therefore, a tropical cyclone can be visualized as a giant vertical heat engine supported by mechanics driven by physical forces such as the rotation and gravity of the Earth.

    To demonstrate the intensity of a Tropical Cyclone, we use the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

    It goes like this:

    Tropical Depression 0-38 mph winds
    Tropical Storm 39-73 mph winds
    Category 1 Hurricane 74–95 mph winds
    Category 2 Hurricane 96–110 mph winds
    Category 3 Hurricane 111–130 mph winds
    Category 4 Hurricane 131–155 mph winds
    Category 5 Hurricane 156+ mph winds

    The National Hurricane Center tracks and predicts the paths of any tropical cyclone in this geographical area. (All of the United States and the Caribbean except Hawaii (Hawaii is beyond their jurisdiction)) You can visit their website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ .

    Now you KNOW.
    -Bill

  7. #7

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Quote Originally Posted by EPCOT View Post
    eerily quiet so far this year..........
    Not really. Even though the season starts in June, the activity doesn't usually start picking up until now. August and September are generally the busiest months for tropical storms and hurricanes.

    School starts here next week, so of course Dean had arrived right on schedule. Hopefully he'll decide not to give us any grief.




  8. #8

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Quote Originally Posted by Xharryb View Post
    Not really. Even though the season starts in June, the activity doesn't usually start picking up until now. August and September are generally the busiest months for tropical storms and hurricanes.

    School starts here next week, so of course Dean had arrived right on schedule. Hopefully he'll decide not to give us any grief.
    Yep, first day of school on Monday, guess I need to buy her a slicker.

    "Bye honey, enjoy your first day of school! Don't mind the 80 MPH winds!"

    *waves*

  9. #9

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill View Post
    Now you KNOW.
    And knowing is half the battle!

    {singing}G.I. Joe....





  10. #10

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Quote Originally Posted by Xharryb View Post
    Not really.
    Must have just been getting used to the recent manic years................

  11. #11

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Hit Mexico... hit Mexico.... or hit Texas, lord knows they NEED the rain!

  12. #12

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Quote Originally Posted by aimster View Post
    Hit Mexico... hit Mexico.... or hit Texas, lord knows they NEED the rain!

    Yeah, not as a Cat 3 though! That's the last thing any of those areas need! A weak Cat 1 isnt' terrible. Kind of fun actually Been through enough of those already.

  13. #13

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Hit St. Pete!!! WU HA HA HA HA
    -Bill

  14. #14

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill View Post
    Hit St. Pete!!! WU HA HA HA HA
    You shut up....( I mean that with the most sincerest affections )


    I'm at the top of Tampa Bay, Area A for evacuating, so no thank you, please disintegrate out in the Gulf of El Mexico and be done with it. LOL

  15. #15

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    Re: Tropical Storm Dean

    So is Aimster... hence why I told it to hit there!!! Besides, you can always evacuate to WDW!!! lol
    -Bill

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