The Ultimate Future of the Parks in the not too distant future ...

[GothicManor]

I just read an article in the current Scientific American that we are facing a sea level rise of 213 ft when not if the Greenland and Antarctic ice shelfs melt. Albeit the fate of the parks will be the least of our worries when this happens. However as an ardent Disneyland fan it gave me pause to think that at 147 ft elevation at Disneyland the ultimate future of the parks may be numbered. Like all of human civilization most of the parks are at or just above sea level with the only exception of Disneyland Paris which is around 400 ft and fairly far from the oceans. Disneyland CA comes in next but at only 147 ft.

You may say that this is a concern to be left to our children or grandchildren (as if that was any consolation) however that may not be the case.

As has not been widely reported (they are too busy with more pressing and relevant news like brits breakdown) 50% of all Arctic ice melted in the summer of 2007, this took everyone by surprise and not even the earliest predictions for such an event were less than 30 yrs away yet it happened 6 months ago and the ice that didnt melt was very thin and or slushy. This has opened up the seas up there so much that the arctic countries are positioning for a fight over the you guessed it oil driling rights and oil tanker route rights, shame on us. Keep in mind that aside from Greenland Northern artic ice is sea based and like ice cubes melting wont raise the sea level but the land based ice shelf's in question will just like dropping ice cubes into a full glass of water.

This article also pointed out and rightly so that the ice shelves in question are being undermined by melting ice and the loss of sea ice shelves like the one that broke off a few years ago that was bigger than Rhode Island and that they can now without warning slide into the sea at any moment now not only causing this cataclysmic disaster of sea level increase but tsunamis as well.

This might seem like an odd time to bring this up what with freezing weather here and in china but its not the unusual cooling at winter time is most likely caused by the sub surface currents changing their paths bringing less warm water up from the equator due to the melting ice flowing fresh water into the ocean reducing salinity.

This article also addresses this however the warming effect is overpowering the cooling effect so that we have a sum total warming.

Lets keep in mind that even if every human on earth stopped pumping out co2 tomorrow the current levels wont be absorbed for generations and the current warming will continue unabated for many years or decades to come. Meaning that the fate of the parks is already sealed it is just a question of when not if at this point. This is not a concern for 100 or 50 years away but an immediate one.

Well getting back to my point it would seem that only Paris Disneyland would be safe and the original in ca may not survive.

[Gymnogyp]

interesting article GothicManor.

Remember that this will not happen over night. It will take many, many years for this to occur. And when it does, i am sure there will have been may measures in place to protect all of this. They way you are making it sound it would be like a natural disaster (to the effect of "Day After Tomorrow") when this will absolutely not be the case. The sea level may rise only a few inches per year (at the current rate). So if there was an immediate threat to people and property, measures would be in place to secure it all.

Besides, there are tons of variables and solutions that I can think of right of the top of my head. For starters, in the small country of Dubi, they have run out of room for people and businesses to live. So they got a bunch of dirt and rock and built out there country into the ocean. In fact, I believe they have built a private island for every country in the world. They have built massive breakwaters and barriers to keep water erosion minimal. I'm sure if we needed to, we would do similar things to prevent this "disaster."

Also, we may be using more oceanic resources by the time this happens. For example hydrogen powered cars and hydrogen power plants. In order to get hydrogen, they must separate water into hydrogen and oxygen. If the entire world mined this water from the ocean, that would certainly impact the water level.

There are several factors that make this "Disaster" flawed. Before we jump to "GLOBAL WARMING WILL KILL US ALL," we need to consider the reality of the situation and the ability of our minds and spirits of our fellow man.

I'm not saying this whole Global Warming thing is just fluff. I just think too many people are exaggerating the situation and underestimating our human ability to devise and construct solutions to these sorts of problems.

It doesn't hurt to be green, but don't obsess (or panic) over it. GET A GRIP PEOPLE!

[Sir.Mouse]

Besides, there are tons of variables and solutions that I can think of right of the top of my head. For starters, in the small country of Dubi, they have run out of room for people and businesses to live. So they got a bunch of dirt and rock and built out there country into the ocean.

It doesn't hurt to be green, but don't obsess (or panic) over it. GET A GRIP PEOPLE!

Okay I'm just learning about global warming...even though people have been talking about it for years)any way, wouldn't creating more land exacerbate the problem. I mean land takes in the light where as snow and ice reflects it. soooo would more land contribute to warming? Also of course it doesn't hurt to be green but it also doesn't hurt to be committed to the cause rather then obsessed. I hope this doesn't become a political debate.

[Gymnogyp]

I'm sorry... let me clarify.I did not mean ADD LAND.... I was simply illustrating that when the demand is there, people are capable of coming up with some pretty interesting and innovative solutions. Dubi did what most considered impossible, and they did it successfully.

For example, for this particular problem of the water level rising and flooding DL....Who's to say we can't build a giant bubble around DL and make it an underwater theme park/resort. I don't mean to say that is the most practical solution, but compared to what they are doing in Dubi... it is not that far-fetched. They could also build giant breakwaters or dams on the hills surrounding DL and the surrounding communities, protecting them from the rising ocean. That is to say IF they need to at all. We could also come up with ways to remove the excess water from the ocean... HOW to do that I do not know, but it is possible.

[ghost1000]

Remember that this will not happen over night. It will take many, many years for this to occur. And when it does, i am sure there will have been may measures in place to protect all of this. They way you are making it sound it would be like a natural disaster (to the effect of "Day After Tomorrow") when this will absolutely not be the case. The sea level may rise only a few inches per year (at the current rate). So if there was an immediate threat to people and property, measures would be in place to secure it all.

I saw a show that debunked many of the things that happened in Day After Tomorrow, as well as many other natural disaster movies.

[DisneyIPresume]

I thought DL's elevation was lower than that. Oh well.

In any case I do understand the impact of the ice pack melting but regardless DL sits in the middle of a naturally occurring flood plain. There is no delta for the Santa Ana River. Before the Army Corps of Engineers cemented it in, the river would pick the path of least resistance as it flowed to the ocean. Each year this path would change depending on the rainy season, but cities like Anaheim, Fountain Valley, and Huntington Beach were in the middle of this plain.

Once every 100 years there is a rain event so great that the Santa Ana River overflows its banks and floods the surrounding area. This event is overdue and it has come close a couple times over the past 40 years I've been around.

So this is more likely to happen but at least I live in the San Joaquin Hills so I'll just be living on an island if what the ts says actually does happen. And I will miss DL if it does but in that case I'll just have to build a new one myself.

[Steve DeGaetano]

Most of Holland is below sea level, and they do OK...I don't think you need to worry about DL turning into a giant lake any time soon.

[King of the Frogs]

GothicManor - Whenever you read one article declaring The End is Near!, you can always find one that states precisely the opposite.

Example - balance the mass of water thawing in the Arctic to the mass of water freezing at the Antarctic - you will see that the balance of ice mass is pretty much equal, loss to gain.

It is quite simple to think that the miniscule knowledge we have about the climate is fact - in reality, we know very, very little.

My prime question to anyone fearing the sky falling - Find me ONE climate model that can be run backwards and works. In other words, take the model used by the gloom-and-doomers, plug in data from 100 years ago, or 200 years, then run it forward - does that model predict the state of the climate conditions NOW?

I'll save you the trouble - not ONE model has been developed that can be tested and proven correct.

We maybe know 5% of what we need to know (unless you're Al Gore, in which case you were born Knowing All). Relax, drive a few more miles in the SUV, and enjoy the Parks. They aren't going anywhere.

Regards; KotF

[Datameister]

I stopped subscribing to Scientific American for many reasons, but one of them was the fact that they sensationalize theories and hypotheses that really are nothing more than that. Everyone loves, in some perverse way, a good "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" story. I'm just failing to see the hard proof that we're all going to be underwater in a few short years. Maybe I'm wrong, but in any case, it won't be sudden.

And the elevation of Disneyland varies. It's about 136 feet above sea level backstage, with onstage varying from...oh, probably the low 120s in the passage to Toontown all the way to 145 feet or so in NOS. Naturally, you can reach higher elevations by riding the attractions.

[JeffYardDog]

GothicManor - Whenever you read one article declaring The End is Near!, you can always find one that states precisely the opposite.

Example - balance the mass of water thawing in the Arctic to the mass of water freezing at the Antarctic - you will see that the balance of ice mass is pretty much equal, loss to gain.

It is quite simple to think that the miniscule knowledge we have about the climate is fact - in reality, we know very, very little.

My prime question to anyone fearing the sky falling - Find me ONE climate model that can be run backwards and works. In other words, take the model used by the gloom-and-doomers, plug in data from 100 years ago, or 200 years, then run it forward - does that model predict the state of the climate conditions NOW?

I'll save you the trouble - not ONE model has been developed that can be tested and proven correct.

We maybe know 5% of what we need to know (unless you're Al Gore, in which case you were born Knowing All). Relax, drive a few more miles in the SUV, and enjoy the Parks. They aren't going anywhere.

Regards; KotF

More than a few problems with your critique, which appears to be more of a political polemic than a scientific analysis.

One problem is that there is not sufficiently detailed and widespread data from 100 years ago which can be 'plugged into' the complex models that today include extensive data collected by numerous and sophisticated sources and sensors.

And, of course, the only way to prove them correct is to observe what happens when it happens. That is, validate their predictions. By then, though, it will have been too late to change what happened. Sounds like a strategy for an Ostrich.

It is possible to argue about the quality of the models and the sufficiency of the data both in breadth and detail, but that's not what you're trying to do, you're just trying to make a political smear.

[The Mad Hatter]

It's alright. Knotts will take care of all the water due to the epic amount of suck that park has.

[monotonehell]

If GothicManor's prediction comes true, then certain people will have the ultimate Disney Water Park that they've been crying for.

[cal4iri]

I guess I'm screwed since I live in Long Beach......

Hey, if it happens, at least IASMW won't need it's flume.
Seriously though, it's a scary thought. Not just the water rise but all of global warming as a whole. I do think we need to do our part to make things better, but, Mother Nature always has a way of making things right. I'm putting my cards on her to save Disneyland's future. I heard she's been meeting a lot with Walt to figure out a way to fix this ahead of time.


I don't mean anything bad by what I say, just trying to be somewhat funny.
You bring up some very good points!

[GothicManor]

The main point of this article was to point out that with losses of water based ice shelfs like Larson B and increasing liquid water beneath the land based ice shelfs that it is now increasing possible for very large portions of these land based ice shelfs to simply one day just slide into the ocean, no one can know when at this time but it is not outside the realm of possibility that it could happen at anytime and of course the odds increase each year.

It was recently found that the antarctic ice is shrinking and thinning too which was previously believed to not be true.

And when you have continent sized ice shelves sliding into the sea all in one day which IS possible then you have a catastrophic sudden sea rise and initial tsunami's.

The facts in this article are not in question or disputed, yes you can always find some uninformed nut even a scientist who will say it will happen slowly or will take decades so only our children or grandchildren will have to deal with it but the latest evidence does not support this view, again 50% of the arctic ice melted last year during summer to levels never seen in human history thats pretty large and sudden event and it happened now. Not to mention the non melted ice was very thin and slushy unable to support the polar bears and infant fur seals weight.

Also the point is that this is much more likely to occur than previously thought in the next years not centuries or even many decades so it is now thought to be possible in our lifetimes.

Im not trying to be an alarmist just sounding the alarm that there are facts and events taking place out there that the general public are not aware of that will impact things close to our hearts like the parks.

At least Paris Disneyland may be safe and be around but will Disneyland see its 100th birthday or even 75th for our children and their children? I think building a 50 ft plus high sea wall around the resort and it becoming and island surrounded by miles of ocean is not practical.

I guess my point is baring any unforseen impact like nanotechnology or something we can be fairly certain now that we will see sea level rise of 100 to 200 ft within this half century perhaps a contingency plan if need be someday quickly dismantle and store or to move what can be moved to a higher elevation when things get dicey.

Heres an idea that the Disney co should be doing anyways have a historical division that goes out into the parks and literally makes video and photo histories of everything worth saving and use 3d laser scanning etc to ensure the accurate recreation of disneyland faithfully hopefully I wouldnt want them to say "oh now we can make Disneyland bigger and spread it out more and move things around" that was already done at WDW if you have to move or recreate Disneyland it should be just like the original, oh and you can not bother with DCA :-)

[GothicManor]

I guess I'm screwed since I live in Long Beach......

Hey, if it happens, at least IASMW won't need it's flume.
Seriously though, it's a scary thought. Not just the water rise but all of global warming as a whole. I do think we need to do our part to make things better, but, Mother Nature always has a way of making things right. I'm putting my cards on her to save Disneyland's future. I heard she's been meeting a lot with Walt to figure out a way to fix this ahead of time.


I don't mean anything bad by what I say, just trying to be somewhat funny.
You bring up some very good points!

I like the part about the earth correcting our mistakes unfortunately I think that is exactly what the earth is doing, correcting our mistakes of pumping too much co2 into the atmosphere by drowning all the offending humans like rats! Unintentionally of course I am not advocating an intelligence is involved just the laws of nature. :-)