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  1. #1

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    Big quake by 2037!

    Interesting! Its a scary to think about, because in the bay area there are so many homes on these hills! Especially this one area its on a fault. I am not sure about So-Cal if theres a lot of homes like the bay area.

    By Alicia Chang, AP Science Writer
    LOS ANGELES ó California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast.
    New calculations reveal there is a 99.7% chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97% versus 93%.
    The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage.
    "It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.
    California is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt.


    the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.
    For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62% chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63% by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67%. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area.
    Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.


    Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the severity of ground shaking to an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.
    "A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of SCEC headquartered at the University of Southern California, who was part of the research.
    Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59% chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21% for the northern section.
    The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries.
    Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31% chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino.


    http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...ke-study_N.htm
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  2. #2

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    yeah and when I was in middle school the big one of 9.0 or higher would hit in the next 10 years....

  3. #3

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    I'd like to predict sometime in the next 40 yrs it will rain in California too...
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  4. #4

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    Did anyone else watch Eli Stone last night about the earthquake prediction and then this morning there was a report about earthquakes? This thread made me think of it. That episode of Eli Stone scared me....

  5. #5

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    Yeah Yeah Yeah...Heard this since I was a small kid. Ain't gonna happen!!
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  6. #6

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    Quote Originally Posted by garbear View Post
    Interesting! Its a scary to think about, because in the bay area there are so many homes on these hills! Especially this one area its on a fault. I am not sure about So-Cal if theres a lot of homes like the bay area.
    I grew up in Pleasant Hill, CA...the worst earthquake I remember was when the ground actually rolled....
    I worked at a preschool....we were outside in the play yard and you could actually see the ground rolling...it rolled toward us and even rolled under the cement patio....very wierd....
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  7. #7

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    No need to worry. After reading the global warming thread, San Fran will be underwater anyways.

  8. #8

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMunkee View Post
    Yeah Yeah Yeah...Heard this since I was a small kid. Ain't gonna happen!!
    I heard it in California, and again in Oregon. Can't escape the predictions.

  9. #9

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    Quote Originally Posted by DarthDucky View Post
    I heard it in California, and again in Oregon. Can't escape the predictions.
    And wasn't California supposed to be rocked by a very major quake a few years back...according to Notradamus. I've been hearing about the "Big One" since I was a kid and I have yet to seen it. Seen some decent size ones like Northridge but nothing catastrophic.
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  10. #10

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMunkee View Post
    And wasn't California supposed to be rocked by a very major quake a few years back...according to Notradamus. I've been hearing about the "Big One" since I was a kid and I have yet to seen it. Seen some decent size ones like Northridge but nothing catastrophic.
    Nostradumass also said we'd be torched by Haley's comet back in 86'. Whoops!

  11. #11

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    Interesting... since we had a little 3.4 just a few miles from us tonight.




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  12. #12

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    1994 northridge earkquake really scared me when I was a little kid. Its so frightening to think about it.

  13. #13

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    We were about 15 miles from the epicenter of the 7.6 Landers quake in... 92? I have to admit, it was quite and E ticket ride.




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    Quote Originally Posted by AGhostFromThePast
    all you need to know about the mommy stick is.. out of all the bad things that could happen to you... it's right between wetting yourself and death.

  14. #14

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rex Dopey24 View Post
    1994 northridge earkquake really scared me when I was a little kid. Its so frightening to think about it.
    About three hours before the Northridge quake, I mentioned to my fiance that we were going to have a huge earthquake one of these days, and when it happened, my TV was going to fall right off the corner of my dresser that it huge over.

    At 4:00 a.m., or so, I was awakened by a massive shaking, and I bolted straight for the TV to save it. I make it through before we finally put it down last year.
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  15. #15

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    Re: Big quake by 2037!

    I survived living a few short miles from Northridge. I'll survive the next one.

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