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  1. #1

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    Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    I'm bored... Read and post your thoughts.

    According to everyones favorite columnist, Jim Hill, the two Pirates will most likely have a cost of around 600 million. This seems rather reasonable for the additional shooting, the advertisements and the printing of the two movies (something that can cost a lot, see Van Helsing).

    Now the sequels can go several ways. It can go the Lord of the Rings way where each sequel makes more than it's predecessor. So I would guess 315-330 for Dead Mans and 330-350 for End of the World (if Disney can push out the DVD of Dead Man's Chest during the Holiday Season to increase demand).

    The sequels could also pull a Matrix. Where the second will do well regardless but it leaves such a bad taste in the audiences mouths that no one bothers with the third. This happened kinda with Star Wars but with the 2nd doing meh (by meh I mean 310 million...).

    Mr. Hill likes to freak everyone out... He stated that he was a little worried about the 600 million Disney and Jerry dropped for the two films. Seeing how the first made 654 million worldwide, I have no doubts the 2nd will make that if not seven hundred in world receipts. So barring a complete disaster (think World War Three, comet into DC) the third movie is pretty much a freebie. I can see people getting iffy about making the six back here in the states, but seeing how 53% of the income for the first came from around the world, I doubt Disney cares much about the 575 the two would make here with worst case scenarios.

    My guess, Dead Mans Chest will open at 95-105 million and finish with 315. End of the World's domestic money relies on Dead Man's Chest boxoffice kitty and word of mouth.


    Sources = Boxofficemojo.com
    Boxofficeprophets.com
    hsx.com

  2. #2

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    I'm thinking it will open at 120 million and will be box office champ for at least three weeks. I know big films are out there, but I think the fact that it's Summer and that teenyboppers will want to see it again and again will keep the numbers WAY up for the first three weeks.

  3. #3

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Quote Originally Posted by localdisnyfan
    I'm thinking it will open at 120 million and will be box office champ for at least three weeks. I know big films are out there, but I think the fact that it's Summer and that teenyboppers will want to see it again and again will keep the numbers WAY up for the first three weeks.
    I agree...120 million at least for openers. But, I think that it will remain number one longer than three weeks. It would do so, even if it faced stiff competition...which it will not. Superman is a hot film, though the man of steel will be blown away by the explosive Pirates' Depp charge.
    Last edited by Ride Warrior; 07-04-2006 at 10:16 PM.
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  4. #4

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    July 21st IS seeing some interesting movies released. So far, we have Clerks 2 and Lady in the Water, as well as some others. I'm not sure if either will be able to get close, but it might happen.

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Quote Originally Posted by Twist_of_Fate
    July 21st IS seeing some interesting movies released. So far, we have Clerks 2 and Lady in the Water, as well as some others. I'm not sure if either will be able to get close, but it might happen.
    I have no doubt that Lady in the Water will be number one. That gives Pirates 14 days to play at number one. Lady in the Water will have an opening of 45-50 methinks... It will pass Pirates.

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    I don't know why, but I think Clerks 2 may make a stab for some money. Maybe not number 1, but I don't think Pirates will stay in 2nd that weekend.

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Quote Originally Posted by Lacrossedragon
    I have no doubt that Lady in the Water will be number one. That gives Pirates 14 days to play at number one. Lady in the Water will have an opening of 45-50 methinks... It will pass Pirates.
    I saw the stirring preview for Lady of the Lake when I went to see SuoerDooperMan, today. I definitely plan to see it. However, the film appears to be a might too abstract and eclectic to provoke much of a box office fight with the likes of Capt. Jack and Davy Jones. Besides, Elizabeth has a much finer bod than the Lady of the Lake.
    Last edited by Ride Warrior; 07-04-2006 at 10:19 PM.
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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Keira>Bryce, no doubt.

    But Lady In The Water looks to have weird wolf creatures....intrigue....

    Sadly, I'm going to miss a lot of things because I'll be at camp from July 8th-July 21st, and then the next day I go to Florida until July 31st...If it weren't for that, I'd probably go see BOTH Clerks 2 and Lady in the Water.

    I get to see Pirates for sure this Saturday at 10 in the morning at a private showing, and I am probably going to get to see it Friday too.

    I'm excited.

  9. #9

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    I'm somewhat... I don't know, off-put by the ridiculously high weekend gross expectations has for this film. I mean, I think the film can do really well. But only 5 other movies have ever made more than $100 million on their openning weekend.

    Remember, the first Pirates only made about $47 million on its openning weekend, but still went on to gross over $300 million domestically.

    If you want to go predict that high, then fine. Just please don't go calling the movie a failure if it makes something closer to $70 million on its openning weekend.
    Leave luck to heaven.

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Ah, but Curse of the Black Pearl was all up in the air. For the longest time, we didn't have a trailer more in depth than a teaser that looked really, REALLY weird.

    I don't think Disney even expected Curse of the Black Pearl to be what it was.

    Although it is rather optimistic, especially with Superman Returns still in it, I think it'll get pretty close to 100 million, but if it doesn't...shrug...

  11. #11

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    I don't really understand where the 100+ opening idea came from. The movie will be huge, but all this talk about it being the biggest ever is crap.

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tolkoto

    Remember, the first Pirates only made about $47 million on its openning weekend, but still went on to gross over $300 million domestically.
    True, but shrek 1 opened with$42 million... and was such a popular movie that the highly anticipated sequal grossed 108 million on it's opening weekend. With how popular the original pirates movie was, I can see why people are betting on a 100 million opening weekend.

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Ah, but what did Shrek 2 have to compete with at the box office it's opening week?

    The only reason I mention it is because I have a feeling that the runover from the Superman Returns crowd, and some other movies which continue to generate a reasonable amount of money, may be responsible for Pirates falling a little short. Then again, that may not necessarily be true.

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Good point Twist.

    I'm sure the superman crowds will effect pirates opening weekend, but probably not the film overall. Because everyone that even liked the first one a little, will see the second sometime while it's in theaters.

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    Re: Let's play the Pirates Box Office Money game!

    Okay, now that the movies out, let me adjust a few things.

    Firstly, the run time WILL affect the tally.
    Secondly, the darker tone will put off some parents, expect a loss of 1-2 mill because of this (see the Harry Potter franchise).
    Also, the cliffhanger ending will keep the repeat visits down, along with the general mediocre review.

    Opening: 110 million
    Domestic Total: 270 million
    World: 610 million

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