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  1. #1

    • oh bugger
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    Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    "Executives of the Walt Disney Co. were continuing to ride an emotional roller-coaster Thursday. While Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest continued to set new highs at the box office, accompanied by solid mid-week results for Cars, shares in the company suffered their biggest drop in more than three years. Disney stock fell 4.1 percent to $28.70 on the NYSE after CIBC World Markets analyst Jason Helfstein cut Disney's rating to "sector underperformer." By midday trading today (Friday), they had dropped below $28.00. Bloomberg reported that analysts are divided on Disney, with an equal number of "buys" and "holds" and two "sells." Earlier this week, Daily Variety and the Los Angeles Times reported that Disney was expected to engage in extensive cost-cutting, slashing hundreds of jobs and cutting its number of movie releases to eight from its usual average of 18. "

    Anybody else want to go find this Jason Helfstein's car and set off the airbags a la Edward Norton in 'Fight Club'?

    I'm a little confused about the entire situation. Mr. Helfstein reports that "fewer shows in syndication, difficult ratings comparisons at its ABC network and slower growth at its theme parks division may result in 2007 earnings growth in the single-digit percentage range." First off it was my understanding that ABC led the networks in ad sales for this upcoming year, maybe I was wrong, but a recent thread discusses this idea. At any rate they are ahead of the other networks so why would it be bad for them? Secondly does anyone else foresee a decline in theme park attendance anytime soon, would we not continue to see growth? The 50th is over in a few months but they've already started working on the new campaign which only seems to be adding more press about the parks. Is this just not good enough growth for him?

    He then said that double-digit growth is only achievable through cost cutting. Did Disney not announce the day before that they would be "reducing the studio workforce between 20 and 25 per cent and the number of films it makes will be cut from around 18 a year to eight."



    So, you can all hopefully see why it's a little confusing that Disney stock dropped more in one day than it has in the last 3 years. Who is this Helfstein fella and why did he make lots of us lose so much money this week?

  2. #2

    • Freakster
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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Unfortunately, in theme parks and television, Disney is coming off fantastic years. Hence, year over year growth is not happening. The 50th was huge last summer. This summer, not so much.

    Most recommendations are built on whether their growth is real, sustainable growth or just a good year that will be followed by declines. I can understand why people are concerned.

  3. #3

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Quote Originally Posted by jurgenb52
    So, you can all hopefully see why it's a little confusing that Disney stock dropped more in one day than it has in the last 3 years. Who is this Helfstein fella and why did he make lots of us lose so much money this week?
    First off I don't think it is Helfstein that has been the problem...

    The problem is the general direction the market has gone since Israil has taken action agains Lebanon, and the price of Oil skyrocketing to $78 a barrel... The longer this action takes place the higher the price of Oil... Particularly if Iran gets involved which Israel is currently speculating.

    Movement to "lay off" workers by Mr. Cook can be a sign that the over all economy for the media sector may be slowing... Even though by most industry officials moving from 18 films a year to 8 may be just a change in marketing philosophy.

    I have held off judgement commenting... I want the Singles and Doubles stopped... But I do think that Mr. Cook and Iger is pulling back a little too hard, in anticipation of a slowing market and what looks to be some serious cost issues in the near terms... Which may affect the media market.

    The question is, WHY pull back now, Mr. Cook, when you are on the record of saying "Singles and Doubles are fine with me?"

    I have lost confidence in the Disney (Live Action) Studio.

    Clearly Mr. Cook's and Mr. Iger's timing is BAD on this news... Which may or may not be simply unfortunate timing that the two events (the lay off, and war between Isreal and Lebanon) have co-insided... They have an earnings call comming up, and I am hoping someone questions them about this paritcular move/and its timeing.
    Last edited by cellarhound; 07-14-2006 at 03:23 PM.
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  4. #4

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Oh Goodie, I get to get up at 5 AM to listen to it....

    http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...&sid=1618&symb=
    Check out my Theme Park Photos at http://darkbeer.smugmug.com

  5. #5

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    I have to echo what Cellarhound said.... with the fact that the market has tanked almost 300 points in the past two days, I'm not really suprised to see Disney stock down.

    Quote Originally Posted by Senator David Wu (D-OR)
    Don't let faux-klingons send real Americans to war!

    Quote Originally Posted by TheHousingBubbleBlog
    Everyone says that the U.S. doesn’t make anything anymore, but that’s not exactly true. We’re the world leader in the manufacturing of bull****.

  6. #6

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    I heard the war going on with Iran, Isreal, etc played a role in the Stock Market drop. I don't know if that is true, but it is what I heard. Maybe Disney stock was also affected by that.

    EDIT:
    Cellarhound beat me to it (I should read all the other posts before I post next time ).

    Not only was Disney stock hurt by the stuff going on overseas, but the whole NYSE was hurt.

  7. #7

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Quote Originally Posted by Darkbeer
    Oh Goodie, I get to get up at 5 AM to listen to it....

    http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...sid=1618&symb=
    They may or may have a business event between now and then to talk to investors, but it is unlikely you will hear from the between now and the earnings report...

    The one thing I like about Iger is not big on the talk circuit to investors or the media... And I believe it to be to his credit...

    Eisner was and he stuck his foot in his mouth more than half the time... PR nightmare...
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  8. #8

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Thanks for the input Cellarhound.

    Yes, I realize that the conflict in Israel/Lebanon etc. has really got the market running scared, and oil prices climbing up up up. I guess I just needed to vent about it, and get some input from y'all. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    I guess one of the biggest problems with success is trying to match it the next time around. The 50th was huge for Disneyland, but will the 51st and 52nd come close? probably not. POTCMC was huge, will POTC:AWE come close? Maybe, but it seems its all just leading up to potential dissapointment. The stock market is so fickle and Wall St. seems to overact to everything that its just better to not let the day to day ups and downs get to me.

    Too bad I'll be out of the country for that webcast it'd be interesting to watch, but not fun to get up at 5.30am.

  9. #9

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Quote Originally Posted by jurgenb52
    I guess one of the biggest problems with success is trying to match it the next time around. The 50th was huge for Disneyland, but will the 51st and 52nd come close? probably not. POTCMC was huge, will POTC:AWE come close?
    This brings up an interesting topic that I have been THINKING about but I haven't yet comented on...

    The marketing of the POTC movies has had an impact on the theme parks, but only in a limited scope... As the marketing department is focusing on "the year of a million dreams" I think they failed to understand the impact of the POTC film. This is the largest opening of a film in history. And it is based on a Disneyland property...

    "Million dreams," heck... I would have moved to have a more piratey type of theme for the next year, offering scavanger like treasure hunts in the park for prized... You think it is a bit silly, but hey next year there is the last POTC film, and it will likely be bigger than this one.. Why waist the opportunity?

    Use the film to market the park and not JUST the ride.
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  10. #10

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Quote Originally Posted by cellarhound
    I have held off judgement commenting... I want the Singles and Doubles stopped... But I do think that Mr. Cook and Iger is pulling back a little too hard, in anticipation of a slowing market and what looks to be some serious cost issues in the near terms... Which may affect the media market.

    The question is, WHY pull back now, Mr. Cook, when you are on the record of saying "Singles and Doubles are fine with me?"
    Well Mr. Cook came forward with his strategy. From the sounds of it, he is not pulling back as hard as it was explained, I assume they realized moving to 8 was a bit harsh... They are moving to 12-13 films... 10 of which are Disney properties. 2 will be touchstone.

    They also gave a number of those who will be layed off, at 650 employees so it doesn't sound like they are reducing 25% of their work force...

    Thanks for comming out and clearing the air, Mr Cook!
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  11. #11

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cellarhound

    "Million dreams," heck... I would have moved to have a more piratey type of theme for the next year, offering scavanger like treasure hunts in the park for prized... You think it is a bit silly, but hey next year there is the last POTC film, and it will likely be bigger than this one.. Why waist the opportunity?


    Cellarhound makes a really good point. They should capitalize on more "piratey type themes" and offer scavanger type treasure hunts in the park. That would be really cool! With the popularity of the POTC films and TV shows like (CBS's "The Amazing Race" and NBC's new reality type show "Treasure Hunters") this type of idea is HOT, HOT, HOT!

  12. #12

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    stocks go up and down all the time and there is little disney is going to be able to do about low movie turnout and park attendance when 1) gas is so high, 2) people aren't spending 10 bucks to see a movie because they can't afford the luxury because everything is going for the basics that keep going up, 3) apply number two to the parks as well. If energy prices don't go down next summer is going to be one of the worst in theme park attendance. It takes a year of so for rising and falling prices to make their way through the economy so the worst is yet to come. and finally 4) the summer heat wave makes americans not want to go to parks that aren't water parks or swimming pools. I hope things settle out in the middle east but the price of disney stock is going to be pretty volatile for awhile.

  13. #13

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Quote Originally Posted by dahlia
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cellarhound

    "Million dreams," heck... I would have moved to have a more piratey type of theme for the next year, offering scavanger like treasure hunts in the park for prized... You think it is a bit silly, but hey next year there is the last POTC film, and it will likely be bigger than this one.. Why waist the opportunity?


    Cellarhound makes a really good point. They should capitalize on more "piratey type themes" and offer scavanger type treasure hunts in the park. That would be really cool! With the popularity of the POTC films and TV shows like (CBS's "The Amazing Race" and NBC's new reality type show "Treasure Hunters") this type of idea is HOT, HOT, HOT!
    Yes, as I proposed in the thread about "Year of a Million Dreams" prizes, treasure hunts and other personally-interactive and story-driven activities/games of skill are the more appropriate way to conduct this campaign.

    I even suggested that Disney tie the new direction the parks are taking towards personal interactivity together with the sweepstakes so that a sense of real revolution is conveyed to guests. And, I offered this tag line to build upon the success of the 50th Anniversary celebration: "The Next Chapter in the Disneyland Story Begins this Year with You."

    Another component of the campaign could be a special Disney edition of "The Amazing Race" (airing nightly over a few weeks) in which contestants are dispatched on unexpected, story-oriented challenges in The Magic Kingdoms and elsewhere in Disney's world. The Jerry Bruckheimer television series' needs to be reinvigorated, and it presents a perfect opportunity for Disney to communicate to the public the ability the parks have to become the immersive equivalents of video games.

  14. #14

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    Re: Disney Ticket Sales Rise; Stocks Fall

    Stories of any sort require that characters have motivations. So, sending participants/guests on quests in which said participants/guests have available to them real rewards makes a great deal of sense.

    If they are done right and truly complement the stories which currently comprise Disneyland, these activities have the potential to enrich guests' experiences with Disney theme parks immensely, and this added dimension may become an attraction in its own right and, in turn, increase the capacity of the parks to contain more guests.

    Beyond quests, Disneyland should further be filled with riddles/mysteries and with journeys of self-discovery. The place should also emphasize the way that its narrative experiences have the power to bring people together in love and friendship, even between participants/guests and Disney's own imaginary characters. And, Disney's hosts and hostesses, themselves, can form relationships with guests that transcend mere acquaintance and coincidentally ensure repeat visitation.

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