米老鼠已老:上海迪士尼赚钱难

对于一些喜爱迪士尼动漫的国人来说,上海迪士尼项目获批是个好消息,可以终于不用远赴日本或香港,就可以跟 米老鼠等卡通角色面对面了。当然,望眼欲穿的不止是动漫迷,更多的是看好迪士尼商机的政府和商 界人士。

但上海迪士尼是否肯定前景乐观,起码目前还需要保持谨慎的态度。根据香港特区政府和立法会的相关资料,香港 迪士尼乐园开张三年以来,入场人数似乎并未达到预期。第一年人流量为520万人次,但第二年便出现一定幅度 下滑,在访港旅客数字飙升的同时,2006年10月至2007年9月的人流量仅为400多万,比预期少了三 成,远低于开园首年。事实上,迪士尼已经在走下坡路,目前迪士尼乐园在全球已建了5家,除了美国本土两家和 日本一家经营尚好之外,其余都是惨淡经营。香港迪士尼至今还没有扭转亏损的状况。迪士尼乐园投入大、赚钱难 已成为了共识。

上海迪士尼虽然有广袤的大陆市场作后盾,但大陆相关的主题公园也有不少,如何在同类市场中抢客成功也是个难 题。如今乐园规划、投资规模等关键细节仍是雾里看花,但楼市和资本市场又在刮“迪士尼旋风”,如此炒作概念 ,“见光死”的惨剧也就不可避免。

更重要的是,米老鼠和唐老鸭虽然是经典卡通,但已经60岁了,中国的的90后和新世纪出生的孩子们是否认同 这两个60岁的卡通形象还是个未知数,更何况,这些年各类卡通形象层出不穷。从《灌篮高手》《魔神英雄坛( 传)》《数码宝贝》《一休哥》《变形金刚》《兔八哥》等等。近几年电视上反复播的不少中国动漫公司自制的幼 稚动画片,如《喜羊羊与灰太郎》也很不错的,还有就是麦兜了。当下的孩子们可能在喜羊羊灰太郎的影响下,早 都决定“做人要做喜羊羊,嫁人要嫁灰太郎”了,还能认全迪士尼乐园里谁是谁么?如果,让喜羊羊与灰太郎统治 乐园,迪士尼干嘛还要吃中国这块大蛋糕呢?

还有随着网络发展,各种网络游戏层出不穷,现在的孩子在虚拟网络世界里可以找到许多游戏乐趣,还有多大的兴 趣花很高的费用去看人造的以米老鼠和唐老鸭为主题的童话世界呢?

孩子们多样化的选择无疑对迪士尼乐园是一个很大的挑战。

当然我们都希望未来的上海迪士尼乐园能赚钱,但从目前情况及未来的发展来看,也不得不为其“钱景”担忧,希 望决策者和投资者们不要盲目乐观。
Source : Blog Sohu

Google Translation (might not be too accurate, but i am just too tired to do the translation myself, so sorry about that)

Mouse is Old and Shanghai Disney is difficult to make money

or some of the people who loved Disney animation, Shanghai Disneyland project approval is good news, you can finally do not have traveled to Japan or Hong Kong, they can face to face with Mickey Mouse and other cartoon character had. Of course, there is not just waiting to no avail some fans, and more optimistic about Disney's business is government and business people.

But Shanghai Disney is certainly optimistic about the prospects, at least, is still the need to maintain a cautious attitude. According to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government and the Legislative Council of the relevant information, the Hong Kong Disneyland opened in three years, attendance does not seem to meet expectations. During the first year for 520 million passengers flow of people, but the next year there will be a certain level of decline in visitor numbers soaring at the same time, from October 2006 to September 2007 of just over 400 million flow of people is less than expected into three, well below the park opened in the first year. In fact, Disney has been on the decline, the current Disneyland around the world have been built five, in addition to the United States and Japan, a two local business were good, the rest are hard going. Hong Kong Disneyland has yet to reverse the loss-making situation. Disneyland into big, difficult to make money has become the consensus.

Shanghai Disneyland Although the vast mainland market backed by the mainland-related theme park, there are many, how to succeed in the same market over customers is a challenge. Now park planning, investment and other key details of the scale is still smoke and mirrors, but the property market and capital market is stirring up the "Disney whirlwind," the concept of such a speculation, "Jianguang Si", it is inevitable tragedy.

More importantly, although the classic Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck cartoons, but it has been 60 years old, China's 90-and post-born children in the new century agree that these two 60-year-old is still a cartoon image of the unknown, let alone , over the years all kinds of cartoon image of an endless stream. From the "Slam Dunk" "devil-hero altar (Biography)" "Digimon," "one off Costa Rica" "Transformers," "Bugs Bunny" and so on. Repeatedly broadcast on television in recent years, many Chinese-made childish cartoon animation companies, such as "Pleasant Goat and Big Taro" also very good, there is a McDull. The moment the children may be in Hei Yang Yang ash Taro under the influence of the decision already made "a man to do hi Yang Yang, married marry gray Taro", and also to identify where the whole Disneyland Mody who is who? If, for the rule of Pleasant Goat and Big Taro Park, Disney would also like to eat Chinese Why does this big cake?

There are as network development, a variety of online games after another, today's children in the virtual online world where you can find many fun games, there is much interested in spending the high cost of man-made in order to see Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck as the main theme The fairy tale world?

Diverse selection of children's undoubtedly Disneyland is a great challenge.

Of course, we all hope that the future of the Shanghai Disneyland can make money, but the present situation and future development point of view, also had its "Money King" concerns about the hope that policy makers and investors should not blindly optimistic.