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  1. #1

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    Third Theme Park to TDR?

    I was looking online, and there are a good number of sites claiming OLC will build a third park with part of the $5 billion they are planning to invest into TDR. Multiple sites are also claiming that the park will be an indoor one, and might be off-site. I think that OLC should build a third park, but that it should be on site (I do not care if it is indoors or not as long as it is a good park). The main question is then, where would the park go? Well, reclaiming land would not be that hard to do. But, OLC would probably reclaim a lot of land for a third park, more parking for the park, and additional hotels.
    Name:  Screen Shot 2014-06-09 at 4.45.03 PM.png
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    This is a picture of the entire resort, with the potential reclaimed land area outlined in red. This is probably the ideal location because it is on the monorail line (black line around the two parks). The third gate would probably take up about half of the space, probably the area in the right half of the reclaimed land due to the monorail, and more hotels and parking would take up the remaining space.
    This idea is also very realistic. OLC said they are investing $5 billion into the parks over 10 years. This is a lot of $, and what can be realistically added other than this that would cost that much. NFL at MK cost an estimated $425 million, which means a new land (Glacier Bay has been rumored to be coming to TDS for a while now) would cost about $550-$750 million. But, a new land would result in loss of parking spaces, and about 7 new lands could be added with the $5 billion. Land reclamation the new park, and the parking lot (and hotels, if Disney builds the hotels themselves and doesn't sell the land) would probably cost about $3.5-$4.25 billion (land reclamation is only about $5 per square foot, with my outlined area costing about $65.25 million). This would leave plenty of money left-over to do create a new land in TDS (or TDL) and make new attractions/refurbishments.
    What would the theme of the park be? I, personally, think it would be cool if the park was Tokyo DisneyAir, with DisneySea and Disneyland already there, but there are other awesome options. I would also be for Disney Japan Adventure, a hero/villain based theme park, or WestCot, since the Japanese are big with technology (WestCot would result in practically all of the new land being theme park devoted, with EPCOT bigger than TDS and TDL combined). OLC has plenty of choices, and I am sure they would not disappoint with their big budget.
    What do you think of this idea, and do you have any theme park suggestions?
    Last edited by Imagineer45; 06-09-2014 at 01:19 PM.

  2. #2

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    That would ruin the view of the sea from TDS...
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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    I'd like to see a third park build eventually. However, I don't think this investment OLC is making over the next 10 years is for a third park.

    I'd really like to see some sources of these rumors instead of just saying, "a good number of sites". Do all these sites state the same information as you have posted here, or is this post just your speculation? I'm guessing you are just speculating.

    I don't agree with your estimates on the cost of adding a new park, let alone the cost of land reclamation. Where did you get the information that land reclamation is only $5 a square foot?

    Your price of $65.25M using your estimate of $5/sq ft is an area of 13.05M sq ft. The area you have outlined by my estimation is roughly 6700ft x 3400 ft or approximately 23M sq ft. That's equates to an additional 10 million sq ft over your estimate and an additional $50M at your estimated rate of $5/sq ft.

    My internet research shows a more believable cost of reclaimed land being approximately $30 per square foot. That's six times higher than the estimate you stated.

    If your interested, here is the source of my estimate. It is in 2006 euros, so I'm guessing the cost has only risen since then making my estimate even more conservative.
    https://www.iadc-dredging.com/ul/cms...by-the-sea.pdf

    So if I use my estimate of the area you outlined as being 23 million sq ft. , and my internet referenced estimate of $30/sq ft.... that comes out to $690 million dollars just for land reclamation.

    This leaves $4B and some change for actually building a third park.

    Shanghai Disneyland is estimated to be around $4B to build.

    So a $5B investment could get you a third park. However, this $5B is investment is to be spread over 10 years. I don't think the investment is intended to be used to make people wait 10 years before they can experience a new park. And if you open it incrementally, you will run into the same problems that Disney had with DCA and WDS where they opened a park on the cheap and improved it over time.

    Also, since a third park as you have described would use all if not more of the $5B, there would be no money "left over" for improving the existing parks. Your underestimate of what it would cost to reclaim land sucks up any money that could be used for something else.

    Because of this, I think the idea of the $5B investment being used for a third park is not practical or realistic.

    And yes, as T3 states, it would ruin the theming of TDS and its American Waterfront, Cape Cod and Port Discovery areas.

  4. #4

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger55 View Post
    I'd like to see a third park build eventually. However, I don't think this investment OLC is making over the next 10 years is for a third park.

    I'd really like to see some sources of these rumors instead of just saying, "a good number of sites". Do all these sites state the same information as you have posted here, or is this post just your speculation? I'm guessing you are just speculating.

    I don't agree with your estimates on the cost of adding a new park, let alone the cost of land reclamation. Where did you get the information that land reclamation is only $5 a square foot?

    Your price of $65.25M using your estimate of $5/sq ft is an area of 13.05M sq ft. The area you have outlined by my estimation is roughly 6700ft x 3400 ft or approximately 23M sq ft. That's equates to an additional 10 million sq ft over your estimate and an additional $50M at your estimated rate of $5/sq ft.

    My internet research shows a more believable cost of reclaimed land being approximately $30 per square foot. That's six times higher than the estimate you stated.

    If your interested, here is the source of my estimate. It is in 2006 euros, so I'm guessing the cost has only risen since then making my estimate even more conservative.
    https://www.iadc-dredging.com/ul/cms...by-the-sea.pdf

    So if I use my estimate of the area you outlined as being 23 million sq ft. , and my internet referenced estimate of $30/sq ft.... that comes out to $690 million dollars just for land reclamation.

    This leaves $4B and some change for actually building a third park.

    Shanghai Disneyland is estimated to be around $4B to build.

    So a $5B investment could get you a third park. However, this $5B is investment is to be spread over 10 years. I don't think the investment is intended to be used to make people wait 10 years before they can experience a new park. And if you open it incrementally, you will run into the same problems that Disney had with DCA and WDS where they opened a park on the cheap and improved it over time.

    Also, since a third park as you have described would use all if not more of the $5B, there would be no money "left over" for improving the existing parks. Your underestimate of what it would cost to reclaim land sucks up any money that could be used for something else.

    Because of this, I think the idea of the $5B investment being used for a third park is not practical or realistic.

    And yes, as T3 states, it would ruin the theming of TDS and its American Waterfront, Cape Cod and Port Discovery areas.
    My land reclamation source was from when Dubai did its projects adjusted with inflation. Also, your estimate was way off, as I measured about 4,900x2,900 sq. ft (a forgot my original exact numbers, but these are within a hundred feet or so). It just looks big because TDR isn't that big. Even with your land reclamation numbers, it comes out to less than $400 million for land reclamation. I know it would ruin the theming, but that is an easily solved problem. The red outline I proposed can be turned 90 degrees so the short side borders the current land where the hotels are. It could still be connected to the monorail, as it would end its border with the main land around where TDS ends and only overlap a bit, and the monorail is still there.
    I do see your reasoning with the Shanghai budget, but remember that Shanghai is from scratch and infrastructure and such has to be built. TDS cost about $4 billion, so I will assume the same. These costs still leave TDS/TDL over $900 million (I used the average of both of our land reclamation estimates) for 10 years, which is enough to add Glacier Bay to TDS (estimated $600 million due to small size of land proposed) and big things for TDL.

  5. #5

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    I believe Dubai land reclamation falls on the cheaper side since it isn't in an earthquake prone zone. Also, I'm guessing its a lot less labor cost to get workers in Dubai than in Japan. This might explain why Dubai can do it for so much less.

    Regardless, there are a lot of things that can be done to make a third park fit within a $5B budget. The more important questions are... Would OLC plan a third park in this protracted a manner or would they budget and announce what would be a huge project in one big announcement?... Do people really want to wait for 10 years for a park to be completed? ...Do people really want a third park instead of improving and enhancing the existing parks?

    My logic and opinions still say this $5B 10 year plan is not for a third park.

  6. #6

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    Checking the presentation on the OLC website "Results for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2014 and 2016 Medium-Term Plan" there are soe pieces that offer some ideas what OLC could do:

    Slide 21:
    - The see a long term projection of 30 Million People by 2023 in Maihama Area (and excluding the 30th year anniversary last FY, currently it is 28 Million People).

    - They want to establish a new pillar for growth outside Maihama in the size of one segment. It is not clear what one segment is (even the Japanese Translation), but I would guess one segment in the size of TDL or TDS, probably in terms of revenue/earnings?

    Slide 23:
    - The famous 5 Billion USD investment in the Theme Parks appear here and this is linked to TDR. On this slide and others they speak on Experience enhancements.

    => If they would build a third gate, they wouldn't calculate with a 30 Million Number in 2024, the chance for a third gate in Maihama are imo very very slim (and that is good).

    I still can't believe a 5 Billion investment just in TDR. This is way more than the average of the last years, and 5 Billions just to attract 2 Million visitors more per year sounds like a bad investment.

    If they would invest 5 Billion in TDR alone, I find it hard to believe that they could support further investments for growth outside Maihama Area.

    So my guess for the moment:
    - No third gate in Maihama
    - OLC will invest in TDR with some new lands/attractions.
    - OLC will create something new outside Maihama with a significant potential for revenue, but it will not be a Theme Park like TDS or TDL.
    - The sum of the two investments will be around 5 Billion USD (I know this is a contradiction to the information in the presentation.)

  7. #7

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    The parks are so crowded that they are close to paralysis. OLC has no choice but to dramatically expand both parks or see the quality of the guest experience dramatically decline. And since they're not stupid, that's what I believe will happen.

    And one big reason OLC has decided to spend all this money? Harry Potter at Universal Studios Japan, which is about to see an enormous boost in its attendance, just as Islands of Adventure did in Orlando, and just as Universal Studios Hollywood will. Then USJ will build a second park, and another Harry Potter "land" just as they're doing in Orlando.

    All of this hurts the Disney parks. The folks who run Walt Disney World are stupid and cheap, but the other group in Anaheim is a lot smarter, and you'll see expansion at The Disneyland Resort. Ditto for the Tokyo Disney Resort.
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  8. #8

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fukai View Post
    The folks who run Walt Disney World are stupid and cheap, but the other group in Anaheim is a lot smarter, and you'll see expansion at The Disneyland Resort. Ditto for the Tokyo Disney Resort.
    The same idiots run that run WDW also run DLR. All the international parks are run by someone else, with Disney owning a minority share, or nothing in the case of TDR. WDW had an excuse for not doing anything for Harry Potter 1.0, because who ever thought it would be this big. They are idiots, though, for matching Harry Potter 2.0 with New Fantasyland. DLR will never face the same trouble as WDW because UOR was a multi day resort with hotels and multiple parks before HP, but USH has no on site hotels, only one park, and has a much lower attendance than either IOA and USF had before Potter. DLR should still do something to match USH, though.

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    Having visited both Walt Disney World and Disneyland regularly for several decades, it's plainly obvious that they are not run by the same people.
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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    The Oriental Land Company has been interested in expanding their business for awhile. They were supposedly interested Disney's now dead Urban Entertainment Center concept. More recent rumors have suggested there is a strong interest in building a third theme park elsewhere and without Disney.

  11. #11

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fukai View Post
    Having visited both Walt Disney World and Disneyland regularly for several decades, it's plainly obvious that they are not run by the same people.
    Agreed. Both resorts may have the same people at the top (the guys who came up with the generic "Disney Parks" thing), but TDA knows how to work within that structure and give us guests the better experience than the Orlando people.

    Anyhow, I've never actually been to TDL or TDS yet, but a 3rd park would be really cool!
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  12. #12

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    "More recent rumors have suggested there is a strong interest in building a third theme park elsewhere and without Disney."

    Without Disney? I wonder if they'll hire Universal's development team.
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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fukai View Post
    "More recent rumors have suggested there is a strong interest in building a third theme park elsewhere and without Disney."

    Without Disney? I wonder if they'll hire Universal's development team.
    There are plenty of people out there who can do the work, they could even hire now former Imagineers such as the Kirk Brothers (they lead the Tokyo DisneySEA team). Apparently the Oriental Land Company is tired of the games where they have to spend more to achieve Disney quality while Disney cuts more from their own parks. Who would appreciate that sort of constant lying?

  14. #14

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    Oh! Nintendo Land! With MiiVille Crossing entrance hub and shopping (themed to both Mii Plaza and Animal Crossing), Mario Land (with Luigi's Haunted Mansion, of course!), Zelda's Hyrule Metroid Adventure, Donkey Kong Jungle, Kirby (and Starfy?) kids' land, Pokemon and Yokai Watch! And Star Fox, of course!

    It would be incredible and a money machine. It could have all of the cuteness of TDL on the Pokemon, Kirby, and Mario areas. But in the Zelda, Metroid, and Donkey Kong lands, it could be themed for gorgeous fantasy vacation/exploration immersion like TDS but with truly thrilling attractions on par with Universal Studios and FujiQ Highlands. Contrast Peach's Castle with Zelda's! MiiVille Crossing could be truly adaptive and incorporate the latest games and merchandise from third-party developers (for substantial fees). They could also work with developers to develop products, merchandise, and experiences all the time.

    And they could create deeply immersive, take-the-magic-home experiences that are completely unprecedented because they can absolutely count on, in Japan anyway, every guest bringing their 3DS to the park. They can offer location- and context-specific interaction via 3DS literally every step of the experience. They could "magically" lift the Play Coin daily earning cap so that while in Nintendo Land, every step counts toward your Play Coin collection! There could be special location-specific DLC for virtually any game, through partnership with third-party developers, so that like the Tokyo Disney model, there is a powerful combination of "reliable experience" and "must-go-NOW" limited time draw. Like TDR, all merchandise could be seasonal (and limited to game release schedules), and available only for a limited event period. How wonderful to see Mii Crossing, Mario Land, and Hyrule(?) decorated for Halloween and Christmas! There could be a tournament arena where people play live against other challengers I'm imagining WiiFit sensors integrated into the floor with teams of dancers, huge arena viewing screens and 360 stadium seating to cheer people on creating audience participation and interaction unprecedented in Japan. There would be NO complaints about long lines because guests would play their 3DS while waiting, meeting all the StreetPass Miis they could dream of, and maybe even making new real-life friends. It could be phenomenal!

    The problem with any Nintendo theme park I've imagined before is that it would probably be built cheap, managed poorly, and look like a fairground attraction merchandise cash-in. Like many "bubble-era" theme parks in Japan that now appear, at best, sentimentally outdated and at worst are depressing reminders of the power of time and change to erode, I feared there was no way a Nintendo park could be truly timeless. Even still, Nintendo fans have talked this up for years and Nintendo has even teased the concept on the Wii U. Oriental Land at the helm would avoid all of that risk as long as OLC is given the same kind of latitude they enjoy with the Walt Disney Company, or even more. And as long as Nintendo is aggressive with the business side and working as a strong team with third-party developers like Level-5, Capcom, maybe even Sega and Namco.

    Sorry for the ramble, but I recently received a 3DS XL for my birthday and it has brought back so many happy memories for the fun of gaming (though the only title I have so far is Disney Magical World!), which I thought I'd outgrown. Presumably OLC is looking to develop original properties in order to capitalize on 100% of the profits, but there is no experience anywhere in the world with the magic and potential of what these two companies could do together, as long as the vision was clear and bright and no corners cut. I rarely engage in "armchair Imagineering," so I hope you'll indulge me this time.^^
    Last edited by DuffyDaisuki; 06-17-2014 at 09:43 PM.

  15. #15

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    Re: Third Theme Park to TDR?

    how about in the 3rd park,Ghibli theme park full of stories and adventures.and magical worlds

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