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  1. #1

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    Question Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    This movie might turn out to be great (no one knows now),
    but
    an article on Metacritic.com about upcoming releases stated this:

    "Couple source material that hasn't been relevant in decades with a director willing to indulge Johnny Depp's every makeup and costume fantasy (oh, and did we mention he's playing a Native American?), throw in numerous delays, way too many rewrites, and a budget that's reportedly near $250 million, and the studio that brought you last year's John Carter could have this year's, too. Armie Hammer plays the masked man first introduced in radio serials in the 1930s, and while you can never rule the pairing of Verbinski and Depp out—their Pirates of the Caribbean films have grossed over $2.6 billion worldwide—industry experts are already pegging this long-delayed project as a commercial flop."

    Ouch! I hope "industry experts" are wrong.

  2. #2

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    re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    It all depends on marketing.

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    re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    Quote Originally Posted by Spongeocto4 View Post
    It all depends on marketing.
    You wrote "all." So you don't think there is any causal connection between the quality of a film and it's box office success?

    Maybe with teenage slasher films.

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    re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    I also hope the so-called experts are wrong (nobody ever really knows what will succeed or fail in the movie biz), but if the budget is upwards of $250 million, that's a really ridiculous amount for any project, and in that respect, yes, it COULD backfire on Disney. I hope it doesn't, but Depp & Verbinski's track records notwithstanding, that's still a lot of money riding on a single film, and is thus a huge risk. Hopefully the film will do well domestically, and especially well in foreign. I'd be surprised if the film does anywhere close to $1 billion, but if its worldwide tally was in the $400-500 million range, that would be sufficiently decent.

    Still, Disney needs to stop greenlighting films with $200 million+ budgets. That's just asking for trouble. Even $150 million is pushing it.

    By the way, here's the link to the article in question. The part about The Lone Ranger is waaaaay at the bottom, Part 4, and they include the Depp film with Brad Pitt's World War Z and a couple others as big budget films that might disappoint.

    http://www.metacritic.com/feature/mo...movies-of-2013
    Last edited by Dustysage; 01-23-2013 at 06:42 AM.

  5. #5

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    re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    Quote Originally Posted by Retrocool View Post
    Still, Disney needs to stop greenlighting films with $200 million+ budgets. That's just asking for trouble. Even $150 million is pushing it.
    All movies are products that are risky to create. Let's do some math to see why the risk is acceptable.

    If youe movie costs $1M you are likley to gross upto $10M a net profit or $9M.
    If your movie costs $40M you are likely to gross upto $100M a net profit of $60M.
    If your movie costs $150M you are likely to gross upto $500M a net profit of $350M.

    Then a movie studio make ten movies a year. We'll assume they are all the same size. We'll assume 2 go big, 2 make half the big profit, 2 cover costs and 4 fail completely.

    $1M movies, gross, $20M, $10M, $2M and $0M, costing $10M in the end netting $22M.
    $40M movives gross, $200M, $100M, $80M and $0M, costing $400M in the end netting a loss of $20M.
    $150M movies gross, $1B, $500, $300 and $0M, costing $1.5B in the end netting $300M.

    By the chance this works out. The big movie budget yielded the greatest return. The fact is the big studios can't saturate the market, and to make the big money they need to make big movies.


    As far as Lone Ranger there are some facts that affect this situation.
    1. John Carter was not a flop. Estimates are that it made a small profit. The dissapointment was it didn't make a big profit.
    2. Lone Ranger, is a known story. It's not big and rather old, some parents and surely grand parents know of it. The problem is kids, and probably kids upto 20-25 years old have never seen the lone ranger and the are a big market for movies.
    3. The good news if Jonny Depp is in the Lone Ranger and he is currently box office gold. John Carter was played by someone, but his name was not Box Office Gold.
    4. Lone Ranger is a summer movie, John Carter came out in early Spring Break. Summer is the time of blockbusters.

    In summary Lone Ranger has far better prospects and can only be compared to John Carter because it's the next summer movie and that is trivial.
    Last edited by swampymarsh; 01-23-2013 at 01:35 PM.

  6. #6

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    re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    if it all relies on marketing then I can tell you this one is going to bomb... It isnt the fact this is a western... Because good westerns can be made... The previews really make this film look awful.


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    re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    The quoted article by metacritc feels like a hatchet job. The delays and re-writes all came before the film went into production (having to do with reducing the budget from something like $250m to $225m) if I remember correctly.

    Delays or re-shoots after production begins (or ends) are signals of trouble, but that hasn't happened here. I'm pretty bullish on this movie. I feel like it will be a lot like PotC I (Depp as eccentric sidekick) and have a successful run.

    Quality of the picture will be the determining factor (whether audience will pay to see it a 2nd time).

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    re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    Quote Originally Posted by Spongeocto4 View Post
    It all depends on marketing.
    That, but I think the Lone Ranger had an advantage
    For the love of Disney....

  9. #9

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    Re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    Johnny Depp is box office gold. This film will do very well.

  10. #10

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    Re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    It's possible that this film won't resonate with audiences. You don't hear much buzz about it. However, I doubt it will be a disaster like John Carter. After all, folks love their Johny Depp.
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  11. #11

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    Re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    Are they seriously making a Lone Ranger movie? Can anybody say "desperate for ideas?" Oh well, you never know what's going to fly...

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    Re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    I think the film COULD do decent!

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    Re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    Like I rooted for John Carter, I'm rooting for The Lone Ranger to be good.

    That said, personally, I don't think Johnny Depp is box office gold. Other than Pirates 4 which has a built-in franchise audience, his last 3 big films were all flops. That would be The Tourist, The Rum Diary, and most notably Dark Shadows.

    Since the trailers do not appear to have hit it out of the park, it's not only going to depend on adjusting the marketing, it's also going to depend a lot on if the film is actually good or not. If it is, it will have an advantage over the above 3 films which were all poorly reviewed, the pre-release buzz will change, and post-release word of mouth will keep it in the theaters.
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    Re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    So I read a brief interview of Gore Verbinski today, that started off by saying that a lot of people saw the first 20 minutes of the film, and it was a lot better than anyone expected. So there's some hopeful news.

    Gore Verbinski Talks LONE RANGER, is PYONGYANG His Next Film, and Animated Movies | Collider
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  15. #15

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    Re: Will Disney's The Lone Ranger top John Carter?

    I agree with Spongeocto4 that marketing could be the greater factor. John Carter was said to have flopped for bad marketing. Whether or not someone counters that it technically made a profit feels irrelevant when the studio themselves claimed it was a loss and the opening few weekends in the box office weren't that good. The marketing is a huge factor.

    On the flip side, Dark Shadows was marketed very well and even with Depp in the lead role didn't exactly pull off the numbers hoped for. Based on that, no sole indicator is a guarantee.
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