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  1. #91

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    Umm i can watch a video quit well lol. if you look at the Heathrow model for example, sure it was on its own "track" but it was just a miniature road and it was proposed by others in this very thread that they travel in designated roads as i suggested as one of your options for this system above.

    I didn't watch the video. I studied urban planning and design for years. I know what types of PRT exist. Perhaps you assumed that I was basing everything on that video. Obviously I'm not... I didn't watch the video. An effective PRT system for WDW would use tracks (from above or below).

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    If that is the case then it would be subject to the same traffic that all cars and busses are currently facing making the systems efficiency essentially the same.
    Well, it isn't the case.

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    furthermore any ground based PRT proposal would be subject to dealing with the roads and primarily intersections/traffic lights that are all ready in place, its not like you can just ban road traffic in Disney World. this then requires you (if you want the system to be more efficient then the busses) to build above ground track for the PRT and that blows its cost to a rediculous level.
    The cost isn't all that much more. Roads, especially the concrete aspect of them, is extremely expensive.

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    if the PRT has a totally uninterrupted plane to drive on then yes it is a very efficient system, however here that is not the case.

    Again, doesn't apply here.

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    In this proposal they would be nothing more then smaller busses with no drivers (and i like how you disregarded the issue of safety i posted above).
    Safety is my number one concern. Your "issues" on safety stem from a type of PRT that I have not suggested. A PRT using its own tracks would not need drivers, and it would be much safer than any bus system.

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    Yes, it is mathematically possible to scale a PRT up for WDW but its not FEASIBLE.
    Why not?

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    the thousands upon thousands of PRT that would need to be standing by for the night (for example after wishes, illuminations and fantasmic) would be absolutely insane.
    Hmmm... let's do the math.

    Let's see... we'll use Epcot as the best example. Reflections just ended. So, it's about 9:15pm. On an above average night, let's say there are 50,000 people in the park. The average party size is 4. Epcot's parking lot holds about 11,000 cars, but the parking lot isn't full. So, let's say that there are 8,000 cars in the parking lot. Because we all know that people like to drive separately, I'm not going to say that all these cars have 4 people inside them. So, let's change that to 2. So 16,000 people will be driving home. That gives us our starting number... 36,000. Now, let's assume some of the guests in the park are staying at the Boardwalk, Beach Club, and Yacht Club. These people will probably walk home (or if they want one more ride, they'll take the boat)... 2000 less... now we're at 34,000 left. These people are going home via some form of public transportation.

    Out of the 34000, let's assume that about 4000 of these people are getting on busses or shuttles to get off property.

    So Disney has to deal with 30,000 people getting home via PRT...

    30,000 / 4 (avg group size) =7,500 PRT vehicles would need to be boarded.

    Now, how quickly can they be boarded?

    Let's assume Epcot has 8 PRT loading platforms, plus one special assistance platform.

    In our calculations, we're not going to use the special assistance platform at all... that means this will be added capacity.

    That means we need 937.5 vehicles per hour if we want everyone to get out before 10:15.

    Every 3.84 seconds a vehicle should leave... but that's not fast enough for me, so let's do every 3 seconds. That's 1200 vehicles per hour. So we're now building a system that can take 9600 PRTs an hour.

    These vehicles will not stop moving in the PeopleMover style loading process... let's say it takes guests 30 seconds to enter the vehicle. The vehicle itself is 9 feet long... so... each loading platform needs to be...

    30 seconds in a half minute / 3 seconds dispatch interval means they dispatch 20 vehicles per minute... 20 vehicles need to be on the conveyor at a time.

    10 vehicles * 9ft per vehicle is 90 feet... we'll make it 100 feet long including a 5 foot buffer on each end.

    vehicles are moving at 90ft per 30 seconds... which is 180 feet per minute. The platform is moving at 2.04545455mph

    That's a pretty slow speed. Slow enough to load 6 people into a vehicle including a stroller and wheelchair.

    Plus we still have that extra loading area for people that need extra time to load.

    So, now we need to see how much space we actually need to build this...

    8 100 foot long platforms... let's say the guide way for the PRT is 7 feet wide the vehicles themselves are 6.5 feet wide...

    So 7*2 is 14 feet (because we're loading side by side) and 7ft in between to walk (2 separate moving platforms side by side, each 3 ft wide of walking space) so 4*14 is 56 plus 7*4 is 28 so that gets a total of 84 feet... that's how wide the main loading area needs to be. Plus the small area for guests needing special assistance loading... an extra 14x10ft parcel.

    100x84 ft for the main parcel and 14x10 for special assistance loading.

    this main parcel would be set up like:


    1 Unload / Load Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    2 & 3
    Unload / Load Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    4 & 5
    Unload / Load Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    6 & 7
    Unload / Load Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    8 Unload / Load Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    -------------
    Access Unload / Load Guests Move in <-> Direction

    With there being down and up ramps for the vehicles... this design has you enter and exit on the same platform in that same 30 seconds... with everyone moving in the same direction.

    If you feel that's not enough time or would be too congested... you could set it up differently so you enter and exit on the same side... it would just use more room. You're looking at a parcel of land that uses 168x100 ft. plus the same 14x10 for special assistance loading.

    1 Unload
    Guests Move in <- Direction
    ----------------------------------------------------
    -----------
    ---------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    1 & 2 Load
    Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -------------
    -------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    2 & 3 Unload
    Guests Move in <- Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -------------
    -------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    3 & 4 Load
    Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -------------
    -------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    4 & 5 Unload
    Guests Move in <- Direction
    ----------------------------------------------------
    -------------
    -------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    5 & 6 Load
    Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -----------
    ---------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    6 & 7 Unload
    Guests Move in <- Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -----------
    ---------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    7 & 8 Load
    Guests Move in -> Direction
    -------------
    ---------------------------------------
    -------------
    -------------------------------------
    ----------------------------------------------------
    8 Unload Guests Move in <- Direction
    -------------
    -------------
    Access Enter / Exit Guests Move in <-> Direction

    The later version would cost a bit more, but allow for better loading situations. The downside would be the direction guests move once beyond the station unless a system of bridges was built for the entrance walkways to cross over the exit walkways.

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    on top of that a loading platform is only so big and it takes time to get more PRT to the location and to load people on to said PRT (particularily people with special needs). By the time your done with all that the wait time is a very similar number to what busses have averaged today.
    I think I've just proven that it is highly possible and highly efficient, and this capacity blows away what the busses can do.
    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    You cant just board people without assistance regardless of if its flat or not.
    Umm, yes, yes you can. That's how the majority of transportation systems exist in the US.
    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    the monorail is flat for example and yet they still are required by law to assist people with certain conditions. obviously strollers are not a problem but wheelchairs and ECV's need to be helped on and secured somehow to the inside of the vehicle.
    The monorail is not flat. The only reason they are assisting people is because it's not flat. They have to bring a ramp over to help you if you're in a wheelchair or ECV. There is not a law that requires a physical person to help you, only accessibility.

    Disney does NOT secure wheelchairs or ECVs inside a monorail. They simply ask you to turn the breaks on in a wheelchair or turn off your ECV.
    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    you cant just let them roll around all over the place, thats called a law suit.
    Umm, that's called using a break.
    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    the main argument i was responding to above is that the best part of the system is you get personal travel with your group to the destination of your choice. if your group is over 6, you have maxed out the capacity, you cant just stand, and it has taken away fro one of the brighter points you mentioned.
    You can stand in a PRT, and if your group is over 6, it's not a big deal to separate.
    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    also another point, if your just a group of 2 say and theres an inevitable line to get to a certain location do say a family of 4 also get to go on that same PRT?
    No, you'd only combine if you know the other people and you're both going to the same place.
    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    all of a sudden it isn't Personal any more but if you don't let other parties on the same vehicle it isn't really Rapid Transit due to the lines created and the other issues addressed above. what a conundrum.
    You assume too much.
    -Bill

  2. #92

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    ^ excellent post and I believe if they really wanted to spend the money it would work great.

  3. #93

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Quote Originally Posted by goofy donald View Post
    Yes, it is mathematically possible to scale a PRT up for WDW but its not FEASIBLE. the thousands upon thousands of PRT that would need to be standing by for the night (for example after wishes, illuminations and fantasmic) would be absolutely insane. on top of that a loading platform is only so big and it takes time to get more PRT to the location and to load people on to said PRT (particularily people with special needs). By the time your done with all that the wait time is a very similar number to what busses have averaged today.
    The problem with PRT would be a few things.

    Disney World has resorts with around 500-3,000 rooms each and each room would require its own PRT trip. It has about 20 resort

    If you consier that a big resort with 3,000 rooms needs to empty out(assuming each family goes to a park), between 6am and 9am for a 7am EMH opening to a 9am late opening, over a 3 hour period. That's means 1,000 PTVs per hour, or 17 per minute. 17 PTVs needs a loading area about 170 feet long. This means it would need a station sized like a monorail station. A monorail has time between stops which allow riders to dristibute along the platform. In a PRT omnimover situation the riders would have to distribute along a platform walking to the next open car or a very long moving sidewalk. Do keep in mind even HM and BLAB have waits and only fit two people into a car.

    On the return trip it would be far worse. You could have 10,000 PRV's coming over a 3 hours period or even shorter, assuming people leave between something like fireworks and closing. So you would need a much bigger space for boarding.

    The biggest problem is the maintenance expense. If you need 15 times the vehicles, you have 15 time the moving part which may break. A bus with 4 wheel compared to 15 PVTs with 60 wheels.

    Also if you look at running PRT systems notice that WDW would require awhole order of magnitude more stations and length of guideways, and multiple orders greater vehicle numbers.

    For systems that were conceptialized several decades ago and tested decadeds ago, the idea isn't a clear cut, or cutting edge.

  4. #94

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Bill, that was the best post I have ever seen on Mice Chat. Very factual, and clear. Thank you for taking the time to stand up for my idea!

  5. #95

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Quote Originally Posted by wsiirola View Post
    Bill, that was the best post I have ever seen on Mice Chat. Very factual, and clear. Thank you for taking the time to stand up for my idea!
    No, it's all speculation because he doesn't really know the numbers, he's just throwing some out there.

    Even using HIS numbers if a car cost just 5 grand each your talking 150 million just for the cars for 4 parks. Add in laying track, bridges, tunnels, stations at the parks AND the resorts ( both would have to have the full compliment to handle to morning and night time "rush hours") and all of the electronics to power and monitor the system as well as a nice big force to maintain the system ( we wouldn't want to see it fall into disrepair as the bus system has ) and we are talking a huge amount of money.

    Nobody said it "couldn't" be done, but it will NEVER be worth it to do it. That's why you can call it NOT feasible.

  6. #96

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    My numbers are extremely accurate. More than they should be. Just FYI.

    That said, yes, it would be extremely expensive and most likely would never get approved. I agree with you there.
    -Bill

  7. #97

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill View Post
    My numbers are extremely accurate. More than they should be. Just FYI.

    That said, yes, it would be extremely expensive and most likely would never get approved. I agree with you there.
    As accurate as an assumption can be. Unless you have hard data of how many cars are parked at EPCOT, how many people actually ride in those cars, how many people takes buses, limos, shuttles from the park, as well as the true number of people that walk back to their hotels, your just estimating/guessing.

    Don't lead on that you have hard data unless you produce it. At this point your using YOUR numbers to prove your point, and your number could be very far off the mark. The only reason I'm making a big deal about this is the "numbers" is one of the major problems with ANY transportation system. If the numbers don't make sense, they won't do it. Making up numbers to make the idea look good isn't the same as having the data so that you KNOW the numbers look good.

  8. #98

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    I would just elevate the loading platforms peoplemover style, that way if you did want to load and unload on opposite sides you could save room on the ramps. Plus it ads cool visual kinetics and makes the station easier to see from farther away.

    It also might be a good idea to have load/unload be a circle like again like the people mover. That way vehicles that reach the end of the station platform and don't have a destination inputted by passengers can continue to cycle.

    I'm still concerned about the massive number of vehicles required and the potential for congestion in the mornings though. Is standing in line waiting for a bus, monorail, or peoplemover, better than sitting in slow moving PRT traffic?
    It bothers me when people selectively edit quotes to support whatever point they are trying to prove.

  9. #99

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Yes, I have seen those numbers. My numbers are rounded that I have shown you here. I've rounded them all up from the actual data to be sure that it can handle additional capacity. You're not going to see those numbers though, because I'm not sure how much of that data has been publicly released...

    Having said that, I think it is very interesting that you would even attempt to attack my numbers... Not many people ever try to question me. You have some guts.
    -Bill

  10. #100

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Quote Originally Posted by Dapper Dan View Post
    I would just elevate the loading platforms peoplemover style, that way if you did want to load and unload on opposite sides you could save room on the ramps. Plus it ads cool visual kinetics and makes the station easier to see from farther away.

    It also might be a good idea to have load/unload be a circle like again like the people mover. That way vehicles that reach the end of the station platform and don't have a destination inputted by passengers can continue to cycle.

    I'm still concerned about the massive number of vehicles required and the potential for congestion in the mornings though. Is standing in line waiting for a bus, monorail, or peoplemover, better than sitting in slow moving PRT traffic?
    Although I agree with you that it would look much better, the problem with elevating the station is getting people to walk up to the station. People already lament walking up the ramp to the monorail stations at Epcot and Magic Kingdom and TTC. Not sure it's the best idea.

    I don't like the idea of them continuing to cycle, that reduces capacity. If a destination isn't set by the time you depart, it should just automatically take you back to your home resort unless a destination is set.

    As far as morning congestion, it's nothing compared to evenings at the resort. Nothing to worry about.
    -Bill

  11. #101

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Quote Originally Posted by maddogjoe View Post
    As accurate as an assumption can be. Unless you have hard data of how many cars are parked at EPCOT, how many people actually ride in those cars, how many people takes buses, limos, shuttles from the park, as well as the true number of people that walk back to their hotels, your just estimating/guessing.

    Don't lead on that you have hard data unless you produce it. At this point your using YOUR numbers to prove your point, and your number could be very far off the mark. The only reason I'm making a big deal about this is the "numbers" is one of the major problems with ANY transportation system. If the numbers don't make sense, they won't do it. Making up numbers to make the idea look good isn't the same as having the data so that you KNOW the numbers look good.
    I was going to make a rebuttal post to Bill but this and the other above essentially covers the key points fairly well. the above exorbitant cost is the death of the system along with the fact that it isn't THAT much more efficient to make it an essential part of the resort.

  12. #102

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Why is everyone picking on Bill? His numbers are a very good estimation of what it would take to create a feasible PRT system. Even though is numbers are estimates, they are logical and all of his assumptions are explained in detail. I doubt anyone could come up with better numbers. The only thing that Bill didn't factor in is the capacity of other transportation systems that are already in place to reduce the load of the peoplemover (monorail, boats, water taxis etc.). Also, why would every person need to get on the PRT when EPCOT closes. Think of how many people drive to and park at EPCOT. They wouldn't need to take a PRT to get to their cars. That greatly reduces peak loads. Also, even though infrastructure is expensive, keep in mind that Disney is spending about $106 million on the bus system every year already (my calculations are a few pages back). Disney would also benefit because improved on-site transportation would encourage more people to stay in on-site hotels. Why would you shell out tons of money to stay at Animal Kingdom Lodge if it takes at least a 30 minute bus ride to get to Magic Kingdom? Now what if I told you it could get to Magic Kingdom in 10 minutes, non-stop in your own personal pod? That gives Disney Hotels another distinct advantage over off-site hotels. Isn't that what Disney wants?

  13. #103

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    Quote Originally Posted by wsiirola View Post
    Why is everyone picking on Bill? His numbers are a very good estimation of what it would take to create a feasible PRT system. Even though is numbers are estimates, they are logical and all of his assumptions are explained in detail. I doubt anyone could come up with better numbers. The only thing that Bill didn't factor in is the capacity of other transportation systems that are already in place to reduce the load of the peoplemover (monorail, boats, water taxis etc.). Also, why would every person need to get on the PRT when EPCOT closes. Think of how many people drive to and park at EPCOT. They wouldn't need to take a PRT to get to their cars. That greatly reduces peak loads. Also, even though infrastructure is expensive, keep in mind that Disney is spending about $106 million on the bus system every year already (my calculations are a few pages back). Disney would also benefit because improved on-site transportation would encourage more people to stay in on-site hotels. Why would you shell out tons of money to stay at Animal Kingdom Lodge if it takes at least a 30 minute bus ride to get to Magic Kingdom? Now what if I told you it could get to Magic Kingdom in 10 minutes, non-stop in your own personal pod? That gives Disney Hotels another distinct advantage over off-site hotels. Isn't that what Disney wants?

    I agree here that and some people just don't like to have fun and use their imagination. Lucky for us Walt liked to do the impossible. I think the PRT system would be awesome if they implemented it. Yes I know it's expensive and probably won't happen but to say the buses are better is a joke I think right?

    In my mind I could see it works out quite well. You wouldn't need one for every room either like some have suggested that would be like saying you need a Matterhorn bobsled for every rider that uses it each day. They can be used on a track and reused as they move through the resort. "It's kind of fun to do the imposible" or at least dream about it sometimes That's how I look at these forums. I think Bill gave quite a description using of course not real numbers because he doesn't work for Disney but he delivered his solution with good examples.

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    That means we need 937.5 vehicles per hour if we want everyone to get out before 10:15.
    For one park? How will we ensure the PRT will return on-time to meet the quota? Or maybe the vehicle will be dispatched to another location. There has to be a significant number of "out of service" PRTs to do its job of returning guests home. Certainly, that will cause complaints of bad service at the resort locations for guests who are ready to head out to Downtown Disney or other locations.

    The loading platform is rather complicated. I don't see how it is convenient. A better approach is the guests line up to go to their preferred destination to reduce the hassle of making the request and allocating the demand. To further speed things up, larger PRTs are utilized (van or bus sized).

    This is certainly a case where we let our imaginations run wild.

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    Re: Peoplemover as a viable alternative to horrendous Disney World Bus Service???

    This PRT system would be an example of "plussing". Plussing takes some aspect of the guest experience and makes it better. Yes, it costs money, but the point is...it makes Disney World better. That is all that Walt wanted...to make his parks as best as the could be. Disney spends billions of dollars to plus attractions, parks, and accommodations, why isn't their transportation system worthy of some plussing?

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