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  1. #31

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Quote Originally Posted by KingEric View Post
    So I made a spreadsheet with data from 1991 - 2012 with all the Disney, Universal and SeaWorld parks.
    http://bit.ly/11X7na7

    Now I have calculated the average daily attendance:

    MK: 48,043
    EP: 30,309
    DH: 27,156
    AK: 27,391

    US: 16,972
    IOA: 21,865
    SW: 14,679
    Daily averages are irrelevant. There's a disproportionately large gap between the crowds the parks (especially MK) see during the holidays and every other day.

  2. #32

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Quote Originally Posted by TylerDurden View Post
    Daily averages are irrelevant. There's a disproportionately large gap between the crowds the parks (especially MK) see during the holidays and every other day.
    You are correct. However the are a general measurement of capacity and performance.

    Because when looking at this from an overall business perspective, you would take the max capacity for a park.

    Take MK's capacity is around 75,000 (i know there are other numbers out there, but this is the number I am going to use)

    So at 75,000 as the max, that means that overall the park theoretically could serve 27,375,500 a year.

    However with the average daily attendance being at 48,043, that means that it is operating at 64% capacity on AVERAGE throughout the year.

    Now what you would then want to do is begin to look at the lowest capacity periods, and see how you can begin to drive new business on those low seasons and shoulder seasons. Like say offering people free Dining, and other incentives like seasonal celebrations ie Flower and Garden, Food and Wine.

    So the way Disney sees it when you do look at average daily attendance vs. your theoretical 100% is that there is room for growth, without adding attractions.
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  3. #33

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    I see what you're saying. I thought this was still over the "controversy" about Disney fudging numbers hahaha.

  4. #34

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Quote Originally Posted by TylerDurden View Post
    I see what you're saying. I thought this was still over the "controversy" about Disney fudging numbers hahaha.
    Oh I don't think they are that fudged. In the end the City of Orlando saw record numbers this past year. And you can't fudge TSA records of incoming and outgoing passengers at MCO.
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  5. #35

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Eric, that spreadsheet is fascinating! I never knew there was such a step decline in attendance at MK and EPCOT from 1991 to 1992. It looks like the MK attendance records have never hit the same height since then, do you have any insight as to why this happened?

  6. #36

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Quote Originally Posted by RexSaucy View Post
    Eric, that spreadsheet is fascinating! I never knew there was such a step decline in attendance at MK and EPCOT from 1991 to 1992. It looks like the MK attendance records have never hit the same height since then, do you have any insight as to why this happened?
    So while I don't have any personal insight, there are some neat articles I have been digging up about it.

    I think a lot of it has to do with the recession that was happening.

    Bad News: Tourism Takes A Dip - Orlando Sentinel

    Displaying a sign of hard times, tourism tax revenue in Osceola County dropped 15.6 percent this October compared with the same month last year, new county statistics show.
    In addition, Osceola tourism tax collections for the 1992-93 budget year that ended Sept. 30 were down about 6.3 percent, from $11.2 million to $10.5 million, county officials said.
    and

    ''1993 has definitely been down compared to 1992,'' said Andres Cibotti, marketing director at the Medieval Times, a dinner theater attraction on U.S. Highway 192.
    Last year the attraction suffered a 4 percent to 5 percent decrease in business, Cibotti said. Next year, it expects an additional 1 percent decline.
    Tourism Figures For October Reveal A Decline Of 1.9% - Orlando Sentinel

    After Tourists' Deaths, Florida Works to Recover - New York Times

    http://www.floridataxwatch.org/resou...tMarch2006.pdf

    Some interesting readying.
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  7. #37

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    That's wild, especially considering the recent market crash was worse than the '92 crash. I guess, coming off the large period of growth in the 80's, people were more shocked and afraid to spend money on a trip to Disney?

    I see that 1991 was the 20th anniversary of WDW too... Looking back, I was about 6 then and that was the first time I got to go. I just found this ad for the celebration on youtube (Walt Disney World 20th Anniversary TV Commercial #2 - YouTube) which I remember PERFECTLY, which leads me to believe that it was probably aired a lot that year. The ad makes it seem like there's at least 20 new rides and attractions, which you can't really count or keep track of because of the pace of the song and video. Most of those images are just of new costumed characters, so it's a bit of an exaggeration to say they are a "new reason to visit." It must have been a very successful marketing blitz to account for those numbers. I imagine Disney World cannibalized its own business for the years after.

  8. #38

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Rexy you just made me really sad... I miss that WDW
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  9. #39

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Haha sorry! It really was absolutely unbelievable to go. One of my earliest memories, walking into the MK and having to use the restroom immediately because I was so excited... and immediately after leaving, having to use it again. Too excited to be in WDW.

  10. #40

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Okay, so, I read this and decided I needed to chime in here. I absolutely adore Eric, and I think he has some very good business sense. Having said that, there are some things that need to be addressed.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingEric View Post
    You are correct. However the are a general measurement of capacity and performance.
    Because when looking at this from an overall business perspective, you would take the max capacity for a park.
    Although you may think that is the case, it is not. No theme park on earth wants to be at the max capacity every day. Theme Parks have what is a "design day" capacity. That is, the capacity of the park where guests can feel comfortable. The minute the park has more than that magic number that the park was designed to hold, guests get annoyed and stop spending as much money in the parks. You never want to continually have that many more guests in the park over your design day capacity. If you do, that is a sign to expand the capacity of the park with more attractions and people eaters.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingEric View Post
    Take MK's capacity is around 75,000 (i know there are other numbers out there, but this is the number I am going to use)
    Another number that is true, but actually false... let me explain. First off, there is no such thing as a "capacity" to any park. It's all just based on when it the management feels it is too crowded and they close the park. Magic Kingdom feels crowded around 65k. They can alleviate that feeling by opening "blow out" zones (Backstage areas that really aren't meant to be seen by guests, but they add capacity in theory) to accommodate an extra 10k people in the park. At 75k people, Magic Kingdom becomes dangerous and that's when you start getting into fire codes, not for crowded outdoor areas you understand, but really just for evacuation routes. Today, if you turned off FastPass completely, you could fit about 85k people in the park if you utilized blow out zones as well. (FastPass severely reduced the capacity of the park because less guests are stuck in line and more are crowding the walkways.)

    Quote Originally Posted by KingEric View Post
    So at 75,000 as the max, that means that overall the park theoretically could serve 27,375,500 a year.
    In theory, yeah, that's correct, but that's not going to go over well with anyone.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingEric View Post
    However with the average daily attendance being at 48,043, that means that it is operating at 64% capacity on AVERAGE throughout the year.
    No (and like I said, that number is too high for this year.), but even if average daily attendance was at 48k this year, that's only 2k away from averaging the current design day capacity. (Yes, this number includes the New Fantasyland... New Fantasyland actually really didn't add much capacity to the park for a variety of reasons, the biggest being the fact that essentially the only new capacity of the park in rides is to make up for the loss of previous MK attractions.)

    Quote Originally Posted by KingEric View Post
    Now what you would then want to do is begin to look at the lowest capacity periods, and see how you can begin to drive new business on those low seasons and shoulder seasons. Like say offering people free Dining, and other incentives like seasonal celebrations ie Flower and Garden, Food and Wine.
    Yes, this makes absolute sense. Disney should be doing a lot more seasonal events, though sometimes they miss. Anyone remember the Pirate and Princess Parties?

    Quote Originally Posted by KingEric View Post
    So the way Disney sees it when you do look at average daily attendance vs. your theoretical 100% is that there is room for growth, without adding attractions.
    This is just not entirely correct. They know they need to add capacity to the park. But instead of doing that by adding rides, they're trying to drive up the design day capacity by creating a two billion dollar system of planning and wristbands... a system that I believe will help in some ways, and hurt in others.

    One final word, great spreadsheet by the way, Eric. I wish the numbers on Disney's side were more accurate, but that took a lot of effort on its own, so kudos to you!
    -Bill

  11. #41

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    Re: 2012 Walt Disney World theme park attendance announced

    Bill if you help me get more accurate data I will include it.
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