More Bad News for O-Town ... and WDW ...

[KevinYee]

From the Orlando Sentinel, four days ago:

[quote]

In October 2007, airlines flew an average of 426 flights a day to 98 destinations out of OIA, according to the data supplied by OAG (Official Airline Guide). This October, they have planned an average of 363 flights a day to 88 destinations.

The number of seats departing OIA is scheduled to drop by nearly 6,900 a day.


[end quote]

[KevinYee]

Posted July 5 from time.com:

Major destinations such as Los Angeles, Orlando, San Francisco, Miami, Honolulu, Las Vegas, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Boston all saw 20 percent to 34 percent fewer travelers in 2006 compared with 2000. Of the top 10 cities, only New York saw more visitors in 2006 than in 2000, with a 9 percent increase to 6.2 million arrivals, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

Fewer Tourists are visiting America

[Jerren]

As long as the airlines keep charging cheap fares... they will not impact the Disney parks as much I think.. But kiddies, do enjoy your $2 glass on Coke on board and your $20 charge for bringing that extra bag. Muhahaha...

Ya know TDL I think I just realized which airline you work on!

Are fares still cheap?

Back in February I booked travel from MCO to LAX: $210 round trip included the fees. I looked at what October might cost if I booked it today: almost $400 including the fees. I think Disney execs know what they are doing when they are looking at these contingency plans right now.

Yes Kevin they are if you shop around, I just booked a trip to Orlando from BWI (Baltimore/Washington DC area) for 79$ each way... You either have to go off the beating path and book bulk airfare that was purchased prior to the fuel increases or with a company like Southwest that actively engages in hedging fuel costs. One of the things that's really hurting some of the legacy airlines is they are either in Chapter 11 or under government control of some sort and are not allowed to hedge fuel prices. (speculate and pre-order fuel in advance to lock in a lower rate)

Fuel is the biggest cost to the airlines and some companies are dealing with it better than others. SouthWest Airlines for example has a whole group dedicated to hedging fuel costs and therefore they pay far below that of the other airlines, in fact they may be the only airline to make a profit this year despite the higher fuel costs since they are controlling expenses better.

This allows them to offer cheaper fares and lure more people to them, which means most planes fly at or near full capacity versus other airlines who are flying with more empty seats on larger planes. Legacy carriers loose more, Southwest grows more. It's been happening for a while now the high fuel costs have just accelerated the growth of the budget carriers.

[quote=KevinYee;2932061]From the Orlando Sentinel, four days ago:

In October 2007, airlines flew an average of 426 flights a day to 98 destinations out of OIA, according to the data supplied by OAG (Official Airline Guide). This October, they have planned an average of 363 flights a day to 88 destinations.

The number of seats departing OIA is scheduled to drop by nearly 6,900 a day.


[end quote]

This doesn't surprise me at all, in a recession be it real or perceived, and the subsequent job losses coupled with the fuel costs and food prices going up people have less disposable income and are having to forgo the usual vacation plans.

I was at the shore a few weeks ago in Ocean City Maryland, which is a popular tourist trap in these parts... Typically you have trouble finding rooms at a decent hotel near the beach or boardwalk, let alone finding enough room to put your beach towel down on the beach... Not this year! Beach was all but deserted, boardwalk was walkable and you could actually get on the rides at the pier without a line... A friend was down over July 4th and same thing, place was practically deserted! It's not just WDW and its not just airline destinations, even the usual tank of gas getaways are getting hurt this season.

[flynnibus]

I was at the shore a few weeks ago in Ocean City Maryland, which is a popular tourist trap in these parts... Typically you have trouble finding rooms at a decent hotel near the beach or boardwalk, let alone finding enough room to put your beach towel down on the beach... Not this year! Beach was all but deserted, boardwalk was walkable and you could actually get on the rides at the pier without a line... A friend was down over July 4th and same thing, place was practically deserted! It's not just WDW and its not just airline destinations, even the usual tank of gas getaways are getting hurt this season.

As a property owner in OC and someone who's been going there for 30+ years...and who was there for the holiday... I can say it wasn't deserted It certainly wasn't busting at the seams, but it wasn't dead. It looked like a normal summer week rather then the 4th which normally is a peak week. But we commented as well that it was low compared to what it had been.

[edit: removed image.. can't find the old original OC local image ]

[Jerren]

As a property owner in OC and someone who's been going there for 30+ years...and who was there for the holiday... I can say it wasn't deserted It certainly wasn't busting at the seams, but it wasn't dead. It looked like a normal summer week rather then the 4th which normally is a peak week. But we commented as well that it was low compared to what it had been.

[edit: removed image.. can't find the old original OC local image ]

We where down the weekend before, and it was pretty dead for a weekend... Able to drive from my Brother In law's condo up on 76th street to the boardwalk/beach parking in 10-15 minutes. Coastal highway was drivable and absolutely no backups on the bay bridge in either direction on a Friday afternoon... It may not have been deserted but it certainly was not normal for OC.

I told my wife if it stays that way I'd almost consider shelling out for one of those shiny new condos starting in the low millions...or just buy a house in celebration would be cheaper even with AP's for a lifetime!

[flynnibus]

We own on 82st Coastal Highway's traffic is much better with all the improvements they've made over the last 10+ years. You never consider going out to Ocean Pines anymore as a way of going around the traffic as we used to for many years. That's more of a result of the improvements. But yes, for what should be the busiest week - it certainly was down.

[KevinYee]

From CNN on 7/15:

According to a report on the nation's top airlines released by Fitch Ratings Tuesday, record fuel costs and weak cash flow may lead to "multiple bankruptcies and liquidation" for major U.S. airlines in 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/15/news...ion=2008071518

[ROBONICS95]

U.S. airfares rose 4.4 percent during the first three months of this year to just over $332, the biggest jump since mid-2006, according to figures from the federal government.

But fares on flights to and from Orlando International Airport actually fell 3.9 percent to $251. That ranked Orlando as the 10th cheapest among the nation's top 100 airports, according to the data.

Orlando fares are typically lower because its passenger traffic is dominated by leisure travelers, who often shop for the lowest available fare before booking a ticket. Orlando also benefits from heavy competition at OIA between airlines that forces them all to keep fares relatively low.

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/bus...es-rise-n.html

[KevinYee]

Yeah, I saw that Sentinel article! That's good news if the trend holds. I'm very excited.

[Lindsy1052]

It's not going to have a major effect on MCO...a little more inconvient maybe, from the NE, they will probably change planes in Atlanta, but keep in mind jetBlue is beefing up it's service in Orlando with an extended terminal and a new res center...so while the rest of them are struggling to stay alive jetBlue is doing great. Maybe the rest of them should check out what they are doing cause obviously jetBlue is doing something right...I fly from MCO to JFK all the time and I only fly jetBlue....